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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6245

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 12 TOKYO 001638 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/21/09-1 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Poll: 56 PERCENT  want DPJ to win next general election, 23 
PERCENT  pick LDP; Cabinet support at 17 PERCENT  (Mainichi) 
 
(2) Poll: DPJ scores 36 PERCENT , LDP at 15 PERCENT  in public 
preference for proportional representation (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(3) Poll: LDP support lowest at 20 PERCENT  (Asahi) 
 
(4) Aso has yet to be asked by LDP candidates to stump for them; 
Koizumi gave more than 70 campaign speeches, while Uno made only two 
speeches (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(5) 24 Lower House members decide not to run in next general 
election or retire from politics (Yomiuri) 
 
(6) 3,648 LDP supporters of Nagasaki quit party's Yamanashi 
prefectural chapter (Yomiuri) 
 
(7) JCP reveals willingness to become "constructive opposition 
party" (Yomiuri) 
 
(8) SDP's Fukushima: Shift in DPJ's stance on refueling mission 
impermissible (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(9) U.S. preparing for "DPJ administration" (Mainichi) 
 
(10) U.S. assistant secretary of state meets with Okada (Asahi) 
 
(11) U.S. assistant secretary of state to "respect election 
results," emphasizes continuity of Japan-U.S. relationship 
(Mainichi) 
 
(12) U.S. assistant  secretary of state meets senior MOFA, DPJ 
officials (Mainichi) 
 
(13) DPJ Secretary General Okada calls for discussing interpretation 
of three nonnuclear principles (Nikkei) 
 
(14) Agreement reached with U.S. to discuss nuclear umbrella 
regularly; Weighty theme for Japan as a victim of atomic bombing; 
Eventual violation of nuclear principles feared (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(15) Agreement reached on regular talks on nuclear umbrella; U.S. 
gives consideration to discussion on Japan's nuclearization 
(Yomiuri) 
 
(16) Regular Japan-U.S. consultations on "nuclear umbrella": U.S. 
gives consideration to alleviating Japan's anxiety; difficult to 
implement (Mainichi) 
 
(17) Regular nuclear-umbrella talks: Japan, U.S. to share 
intelligence to strengthen deterrence capabilities (Nikkei) 
 
(18) Futenma relocation at least outside Okinawa: Hatoyama (Nikkei) 
 
(19) Government to propose joint quake drill in Indonesia at ARF 
(Yomiuri) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
 
TOKYO 00001638  002 OF 012 
 
 
(1) Poll: 56 PERCENT  want DPJ to win next general election, 23 
PERCENT  pick LDP; Cabinet support at 17 PERCENT 
 
MAINICHI (Page 1) (Abridged) 
July 20, 2009 
 
The Mainichi Shimbun conducted a nationwide public opinion survey on 
July 18-19. In the survey, respondents were asked which political 
party they would like to see win the next election for the House of 
Representatives. To this question, 56 PERCENT  chose the leading 
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto), up 3 points from 
the last survey taken June 13-14. The ruling Liberal Democratic 
Party fell far behind the DPJ, staying at 23 PERCENT , down 4 points 
from the last survey. In the breakdown of public support for 
political parties, the DPJ scored an all-time high of 36 PERCENT , 
up 2 points from the last survey. The LDP dropped 2 points to18 
PERCENT , the lowest ever since Aso cabinet came into office. The 
figures clearly show that the DPJ, which won a landslide victory in 
the July 12 Tokyo metropolitan assembly election, has been gaining 
momentum nationwide. 
 
The Aso cabinet's support rate was 17 PERCENT , down 2 points from 
the last survey. Its nonsupport rate rose 7 points to 67 PERCENT . 
 
In the survey, respondents were also asked whether they though DPJ 
President Hatoyama or Prime Minister Aso would be more appropriate 
for premiership. In reponse to this question, 28 PERCENT  picked 
Hatoyama, down 4 points from the last survey, and 11 PERCENT  chose 
Aso, down 4 points. "Neither is appropriate" accounted for 57 
PERCENT , up 11 points. In the case of Hatoyama, 75 PERCENT 
answered "No" when asked whether he has fulfilled his accountability 
on his fund-managing body's political donation scandal. This issue 
seems to have affected public expectations for Hatoyama. 
 
Respondents were also asked which political party they would vote 
for in their proportional representation blocs if an election were 
to be held now for the House of Representatives. In this public 
preference of political parties for proportional representation, the 
DPJ marked 45 PERCENT , with the LDP at 18 PERCENT . The DPJ rose 17 
points from this March's survey in which the same question was 
asked. Meanwhile, the LDP dropped 2 points. 
 
In the breakdown of public support for other political parties, the 
New Komeito party, which is the LDP's coalition partner, was at 5 
PERCENT . The Japanese Communist Party was at 4 PERCENT , and the 
Social Democratic Party at 1 PERCENT . "None" accounted for 32 
PERCENT ." 
 
(2) Poll: DPJ scores 36 PERCENT , LDP at 15 PERCENT  in public 
preference for proportional representation 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 1) (Abridged) 
July 20, 2009 
 
Kyodo News Service conducted a telephone-based public opinion survey 
across the nation on July 18-19 to probe the voting population's 
interest in the forthcoming election for the House of 
Representatives and look into trends in public support for political 
parties. In the public preference of political parties for 
proportional representation, the leading opposition Democratic Party 
of Japan (Minshuto) scored 36.2 PERCENT , with the ruling Liberal 
Democratic Party at 15.6 PERCENT . In a previous pre-election poll 
 
TOKYO 00001638  003 OF 012 
 
 
taken before the last election for the House of Representatives in 
2005, the LDP marked 31.5 PERCENT , with the DPJ at 15.2 PERCENT . 
This time, however, the DPJ completely outstripped the LDP. 
 
However, "undecided" accounted for 34.7 PERCENT . As it stands, the 
situation could change. 
 
Asked about the desirable form of government, 39.3 PERCENT  opted 
for a "DPJ-led coalition government," topping all other answers. 
Among other answers, 20.8 PERCENT  chose a "new framework of 
government under political realignment," followed by a "grand 
coalition of the LDP and the DPJ." An "LDP-led coalition government" 
accounted for only 14.8 PERCENT . 
 
In the public preference of political parties for proportional 
representation in the upcoming election, the DPJ and the LDP were 
followed by the New Komeito party at 4.2 PERCENT , the Japanese 
Communist Party at 3.4 PERCENT , and the People's New Party at 0.1 
PERCENT . Respondents were also asked which political part's 
candidate they would vote for. In this preference as well, the DPJ 
outpaced the LDP, with the DPJ marking 34.1 PERCENT  and the LDP at 
16.1 PERCENT . 
 
(3) Poll: LDP support lowest at 20 PERCENT 
 
ASAHI (Page 1) (Abridged) 
July 20, 2009 
 
According to findings from a telephone-based spot nationwide public 
opinion survey conducted by the Asahi Shimbun on July 18-19, the 
rate of public support for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party 
dropped from 24 PERCENT  in the last survey taken July 4-5 to 20 
PERCENT , the lowest ever since April 2001 when the current polling 
methodology was adopted. In the meantime, the support rate for the 
leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) rose from 25 
PERCENT  to 31 PERCENT , far above the LDP. Respondents were also 
asked which political party they would vote for in their 
proportional representation blocs if an election were to be held for 
the House of Representatives. In this public preference as well, the 
DPJ overwhelmed the LDP, with the DPJ marking 42 PERCENT  and the 
LDP at 19 PERCENT . The public approval rating for the Aso cabinet 
was 17 PERCENT , down from 20 PERCENT  in the last survey. 
 
The LDP's support rate was over 40 PERCENT  for a while after the 
last general election in September 2005. The LDP suffered a crushing 
defeat in the July 2007 election for the House of Councillors under 
the Abe cabinet. In a survey taken right after that election, the 
LDP's support rate dropped to 21 PERCENT , the lowest level under 
the current polling methodology. However, it rebounded thereafter 
and was 34 PERCENT  when the Aso cabinet came into office in 
September 2008. The results of previous polls and the one taken this 
time cannot be simply compared due to different polling 
methodologies. Even so, the LDP's all-time low in its history from 
1955 was 19 PERCENT  at the last stage of the Hashimoto cabinet. 
 
Meanwhile, the 31 PERCENT  rating for the DPJ follows its all-time 
high of 34 PERCENT  in July 2007 and 32 PERCENT  in the following 
month. 
 
In the spot survey, respondents were also asked about the desirable 
form of government. In response to this question, 49 PERCENT 
answered that they would like the present LDP-led coalition 
 
TOKYO 00001638  004 OF 012 
 
 
government to be replaced with a DPJ-led coalition government, with 
only 22 PERCENT  saying they would like the present LDP-led 
coalition government to continue. In the last survey, 47 PERCENT 
opted for a DPJ-led coalition government, with 24 PERCENT  choosing 
the present LDP-led coalition government. Putting together the 
trends of other answers, the mood for a change of government is 
growing even stronger. 
 
(4) Aso has yet to be asked by LDP candidates to stump for them; 
Koizumi gave more than 70 campaign speeches, while Uno made only two 
speeches 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 1) (Full) 
July 21, 2009 
 
Schedules for Prime Minister Taro Aso's speeches in the campaign 
trail for the upcoming House of Representatives have yet to be set. 
Although Aso wants to begin a nationwide stumping tour, whether he 
will be asked by candidates on the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to 
stump for them is uncertain because the approval rates for his 
cabinet have dropped in polls due to the moves in the LDP to remove 
him from office triggered by his declaration last week to dissolve 
the Lower House (on July 21). 
 
After the Lower House is dissolved on July 21, Aso intends to 
fulfill such his duties for the time being by attending regular 
cabinet meetings and discussing on policy pledges for the Lower 
House election, and taping a party political broadcast. However, the 
schedule for his campaign trail has not yet been decided. Aso's aide 
said: "We don't know whether the candidates are ready to receive the 
prime minister. Since the preparations take a lot of time, (Aso) 
cannot go immediately." 
 
However, the number of campaign speeches given by a prime minister 
is a barometer for gauging the popularity of a prime minister. In 
the 2005 Lower House election, in which the LDP won a major victory, 
(then) Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, after starting his stumping 
speeches ten days before the start of the official campaign, 
delivered more than 70 speeches up until election day. 
 
Meanwhile, in the 1989 House of Councillors election, (then) Prime 
Minister Sosuke Uno, who was mired in a scandal over his affair with 
a woman, was shunned by LDP candidates, citing that women's votes 
would decrease if he stumped for them. So, he announced the election 
kickoff at LDP headquarters all on his own. He delivered only two 
campaign speeches. As a result, the LDP lost its single-party 
majority of the Upper House for the first time. 
 
One mid-level LDP lawmaker made this cynical comment: "Probably, no 
candidates will ask him for support. However, he will probably make 
his first speech for the election in Akihabara, his home ground." 
 
(5) 24 Lower House members decide not to run in next general 
election or retire from politics 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
July 20, 2009 
 
A total of 24 House of Representatives members from ruling and 
opposition parties, including former Prime Minister Junichiro 
Koizumi and Lower House Speaker Yohei Kono, have decided not to run 
in the next general election or to retire from the political world. 
 
TOKYO 00001638  005 OF 012 
 
 
 
The 24 Lower House members include 17 from the Liberal Democratic 
Party (LDP), three from the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), one 
each from the New Komeito and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), 
and two independents. Among the 24, Kono is the person with most 
times elected. He is now serving in his 14th-term in the Diet. The 
oldest members are Yuji Tsushima, who announced on July 19 his 
intention to retire from politics, and Hosei Norota, former 
agriculture, forestry and fisheries minister. The two are 79 years 
old. The youngest member is Taizo Sugimura, 29 years old, who was 
elected to the Diet in the 2005 Lower House election, as one of the 
so-called "Koizumi children." 
 
Koizumi announced in September 2008 his decision not to run in the 
next Lower House election. His second son, Shinjiro plans to run on 
the LDP ticket in the snap election, from the No. 11 district in 
Kanagawa Prefecture. 
 
Kono became Japan's longest serving Lower House speaker on Nov. 20, 
2008, since he assumed the post on Nov. 19, 2003. He will be serving 
in the post 2,029 days when the Lower House is dissolved on July 
¶21. 
 
In the DPJ, Supreme Adviser Hirohisa Fujii and former Vice President 
Tetsundo Iwakuni, and Seiichi Kaneda have decided not to run in the 
general election. 
 
(6) 3,648 LDP supporters of Nagasaki quit party's Yamanashi 
prefectural chapter 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
July 19, 2009 
 
A total of 3,648 supporters of Kotaro Nagasaki, a House of 
Representatives member (block south Kanto proportional independent) 
who has left the Liberal Democratic Party, submitted their notices 
of resignation to the party's Yamanashi prefectural chapter in Kofu 
yesterday. 
 
In the previous Lower House election in 2005, Nagasaki ran against 
former LDP General Council chairman Mitsuo Horiuchi, one of the 
so-called postal rebels, in Yamanashi Constituency No. 2 as an 
"assassin candidate" on the party's ticket. He was defeated by 
Horiuchi but was elected through the proportional representation 
segment for the first time. In June of last year, the LDP decided to 
endorse Horiuchi as its candidate for the next Lower House election. 
In reaction, Nagasaki submitted a letter of resignation to the LDP, 
and the party formally accepted it on July 17. 
 
The mass defection reflects the supporters' dissatisfaction at the 
party's decision over the nomination. Takatoshi Komatani, a town 
assembly member with the history of 42 years of party member, 
complained: "The upper echelons of the party are incoherent in 
saying and doing. The LDP has become a party of opportunism." 
According the prefectural chapter, the number of members who have 
paid the party's annual fee to the chapter is about 12,000. An 
official said: "Persons who have not paid the fee and whom we have 
not recognized as members are also included among those who 
submitted their resignations." 
 
(7) JCP reveals willingness to become "constructive opposition 
party" 
 
TOKYO 00001638  006 OF 012 
 
 
 
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) 
July 19, 2009 
 
The Japanese Communist Party (JCP) has revealed its willingness to 
become a constructive opposition party in dealing with political 
agenda items after the upcoming House of Representatives election. 
In the event that a government led by the Democratic Party of Japan 
(DPJ) is inaugurated after the election, the JCP will not join a 
coalition government but is willing to exert influence by offering 
cooperation over policies acceptable to the party on an 
issue-by-issue basis. 
 
In its basic platform announced on July 16 for the upcoming general 
election, the JCP indicates a growing possibility that a DPJ-led 
government will established after the election. Based on this view, 
the party criticizes the DPJ for a lack of explanations about what 
reforms the party intends to carry out in economic and foreign 
policies. 
 
Given this situation, the JCP pledges to be a "promoter," as "a 
constructive opposition party," for such policies as revising the 
Workers Dispatch Law, guaranteeing agricultural products' prices and 
farmers' income, and retrenching or abolishing U.S. military bases 
and to be a "breakwater" against such policies as a consumption tax 
hike, constitutional revision, and a reduction in the fixed number 
of seats in the proportional representation constituencies in the 
Lower House. 
 
Ten more seats are needed for the DPJ to hold a majority in the 
House of Councillors independently. The main opposition party 
therefore has in mind the possibility of establishing a coalition 
government with the People's New Party or the Social Democratic 
Party, but uncertainty is still looming over whether the party will 
be able to launch a stable government. The JCP holds seven seats in 
the Upper House. By indicating its cooperation in managing Diet 
affairs and adopting bills, the JCP is casting amorous glances to 
the DPJ. 
 
The JCP has also decided to put up only 152 candidates for 
single-seat constituencies in the next Lower House election, showing 
its willingness to offer cooperation to a DPJ-led government. With 
this, some observers anticipate that the votes for the JCP might go 
to DPJ candidates in the constituencies in which the JCP fields no 
candidates. 
 
(8) SDP's Fukushima: Shift in DPJ's stance on refueling mission 
impermissible 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
July 19, 2009 
 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Yukio Hatoyama traded 
verbal jabs on July 18 with Social Democratic Party (SDP) head 
Mizuho Fukushima over the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling 
mission in the Indian Ocean. At a press conference in Okinawa City, 
Fukushima fiercely criticized Hatoyama's plan to continue the 
refueling mission, saying: "(The DPJ) opposed the refueling mission 
as an opposition party. It is absurd to change its stance simply 
because power is now within its reach. We cannot overlook the shift 
in the DPJ's stance." 
 
 
TOKYO 00001638  007 OF 012 
 
 
Meanwhile, Hatoyama, holding a news conference in the city of 
Takamatsu, reiterated the policy direction to continue the refueling 
mission for the time being, saying, "In view of the involvement of 
other countries, it would be difficult to stop the operations 
immediately after taking the reins of government." Fukushima also 
indicated that even if the opposition bloc wins the Lower House 
election, her party will continue to place high priority on its 
stance of opposing the overseas dispatch of the Self-Defense Forces. 
Making adjustments between the DPJ and SDP seems difficult. 
Fukushima also expressed a sense of displeasure about Hatoyama's 
comment that described a Japan-U.S. secret deal on bringing nuclear 
weapons into Japan "unavoidable." Fukushima said: "The statement is 
not permissible. If (the DPJ) endorses the secret pact, how is it 
different from the LDP?" 
 
(9) U.S. preparing for "DPJ administration" 
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full) 
 
Yudai Nakazawa 
 
The reason why the Security Sub-Committee (SSC) meeting was held at 
this time is because both Japan and the U.S. had judged that in 
light of the possibility of a change of government after the 
upcoming House of Representatives election, it was necessary to kick 
off working level discussions on the Japan-U.S. relationship in 
anticipation of the 50th anniversary of the revision of the security 
treaty next year. 
 
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is opposed to the relocation of 
the U.S. marines to Guam under the U.S. Forces Japan realignment 
process. DPJ Secretary General Katsuya Okada claims that the 
situation of concentration of U.S. military bases in Okinawa "should 
be discussed from scratch." 
 
During this visit to Japan, Assistant Secretary of State Kurt 
Campbell also met with Okada on July 17. A senior Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs (MOFA) official points out that: "The U.S. is 
concerned about the bilateral relationship under a DPJ 
administration. (The meeting) was also meant to put pressure on the 
DPJ." 
 
Campbell worked with Kazuyoshi Umemoto, director general of MOFA's 
North American Affairs Bureau, on the 1996 "Japan-U.S. Joint 
Declaration on Security," a document on reviewing the security 
arrangements in response to the post-Cold War era. A "review 
process" (Campbell) toward the drafting of a new security 
declaration will now be initiated, taking advantage of such old 
connections. 
 
(10) U.S. assistant secretary of state meets with Okada 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) 
July 18, 2009 
 
Visiting U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific 
Affairs Kurt Campbell on July 17 met with Democratic Party of Japan 
(DPJ) Secretary General Katsuya Okada in Tokyo. According to Okada, 
when he told Campbell, "Let's build a relationship of trust between 
President Obama and prime minister Hatoyama and settle pending 
issues one by one," with his party taking the reins of government in 
mind, Campbell replied, "(The U.S. government) is politically 
neutral." 
 
TOKYO 00001638  008 OF 012 
 
 
 
The meeting was proposed by Okada and was realized because Campbell 
is interested in the DPJ's foreign policy. They apparently exchanged 
views on a fundamental review of the Status of Forces Agreement, 
which the DPJ advocates. 
 
On the same day Campbell also met with families of victims abducted 
by North Korea - Shigeru Yokota and his wife Sakie, the parents of 
Megumi Yokota, and Akihiro Arimoto and his wife Kayoko, the parents 
of Keiko Arimoto - at the U.S. Embassy. During the meeting Campbell 
indicated the U.S. stance of attaching importance to the abduction 
issue. 
 
(11) U.S. assistant secretary of state to "respect election 
results," emphasizes continuity of Japan-U.S. relationship 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
July 18, 2009 
 
Yoji Hanaoka 
 
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs 
Kurt Campbell held a news conference in Tokyo on July 17. He said 
that in case a change of administration takes place after the 
upcoming House of Representatives election, "We trust the Japanese 
people, and whichever party wins in the election, we will respect 
(the results)," emphasizing that there will be no major change in 
the Japan-U.S. relationship. He said that the Obama administration 
has confirmed its position of continuing with the U.S. Forces Japan 
realignment program, and "we hope that the Japanese side, whatever 
administration it will be, will promote this process." 
 
(12) U.S. assistant secretary of state meets senior MOFA, DPJ 
officials 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
July 18, 2009 
 
Yudai Nakazawa, Takenori Noguchi 
 
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell met the directors 
general of the Foreign Policy, Asian and Oceanian Affairs, and North 
American Affairs Bureaus at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) 
on July 17. It is believed that they discussed the Obama 
administration's nuclear deterrence policy and a "new approach" to 
make the Six-Party Talks function effectively in light of North 
Korea's recent nuclear test. Campbell also met Democratic Party of 
Japan (DPJ) Secretary General Katsuya Okada. 
 
In the meeting with MOFA directors general, the participants agreed 
that North Korea's development of nuclear arms and missiles "is a 
threat to the security of Japan and the U.S. and is unacceptable." 
They reconfirmed close cooperation on this issue. 
 
Meanwhile, Okada said at his meeting with Campbell that with regard 
to the revision of the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), 
"We will not put all the pending issues on the negotiating table at 
once," indicating that priority will be given to building a 
relationship of trust between U.S. President Barack Obama and DPJ 
President Yukio Hatoyama. 
 
(13) DPJ Secretary General Okada calls for discussing interpretation 
 
TOKYO 00001638  009 OF 012 
 
 
of three nonnuclear principles 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
July 19, 2009 
 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) Secretary General Katsuya Okada on 
July 18 gave a speech in Yokkaichi City, Mie Prefecture. In the 
speech he indicated his perception that in the event of the DPJ 
taking the reins of government, it would discuss the three 
nonnuclear principles, including taking a second look at the 
interpretation of those principles. He said, "We must discuss the 
interpretation of the principle that 'nuclear weapons shall not 
enter Japan' at a national forum and make a political decision in 
the end." 
 
Okada said: "The U.S. has stopped carrying nuclear arms on vessels 
other than submarines. Nuclear submarines do not make port calls in 
Japan." He stressed, "Discussing the interpretation of the three 
nonnuclear principles will not present a problem at the present 
point of time." 
 
(14) Agreement reached with U.S. to discuss nuclear umbrella 
regularly; Weighty theme for Japan as a victim of atomic bombing; 
Eventual violation of nuclear principles feared 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
July 19, 2009 
 
A Japan-U.S. Security Subcommittee (SSC) meeting was held on July 18 
between director-general level diplomatic and security officials of 
the two countries. The two sides reached an agreement to begin 
meeting regularly to discuss, among other matters, the U.S. nuclear 
umbrella over Japan. To what extent can Japan, the only country to 
have suffered an atomic attack, be involved in America's nuclear 
strategy? The matter is likely to be a key challenge for the 
Japanese administration after the forthcoming general election. 
 
As part of its goal of nuclear disarmament, the U.S. Obama 
administration is reviewing the country's nuclear posture. Striking 
a balance between nuclear disarmament and nuclear deterrence is a 
challenge. The Obama administration, which is aiming to break away 
from unilateralism, plans to carry out a review in collaboration 
with U.S. allies. 
 
President Obama regards the Japan-U.S. alliance as a cornerstone of 
U.S. security policy in East Asia. The President plans to strengthen 
the Japan-U.S. alliance in wide-ranging areas from the nuclear 
umbrella to measures to curb global warming. The U.S. government is 
eyeing a new Japan-U.S. declaration with an eye on next year which 
marks the 50th anniversary of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. 
 
For Japan, which has suffered an atomic attack, nuclear strategy has 
been a difficult subject to broach. Japan maintains three 
non-nuclear principles of not possessing, producing, or permitting 
the introduction of nuclear weapons into Japan, while relying on the 
U.S. nuclear umbrella. The two countries have never specifically 
discussed how to use nuclear arms in a contingency. 
 
A senior Foreign Ministry said, "Once the nuclear umbrella is 
guaranteed, the argument calling for the independent possession of 
nuclear weapons will be contained." Meanwhile, a Defense Ministry 
official expressed his apprehension, "The matter might escalate into 
 
TOKYO 00001638  010 OF 012 
 
 
Japan agreeing to the use of nuclear weapons." 
 
After the SSC, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell 
expressed his hope for talks with the next Japanese administration, 
saying: "Whichever party wins the next general election, we are 
ready to work together. U.S.-Japan relations are solid. I would like 
to hold close talks with Japan as a U.S. ally." 
 
(15) Agreement reached on regular talks on nuclear umbrella; U.S. 
gives consideration to discussion on Japan's nuclearization 
 
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) 
July 19, 2009 
 
Japan and the United States agreed during high-level security talks 
on July 18 to meet regularly to discuss the nuclear umbrella. 
Through such meetings, the government intends to seek information on 
a Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) to be compiled by the U.S. government 
before the end of the year. 
 
U.S. President Barack President is showing a positive stance on 
nuclear disarmament, but in East Asia, North Korea has conducted 
nuclear tests and China is pursuing a military buildup and 
modernization policy course. President Obama announced at the 
Japan-U.S. summit in February this year America's commitment to 
defending Japan, including its nuclear deterrence. But concern still 
remains in Japan on whether the nuclear umbrella will actually 
function during a contingency. 
 
The upcoming NPR will be the third in U.S. history. Japan reportedly 
has not received detailed explanations of the NPR. A Defense 
Ministry source said, "We cannot rely on the United States unless it 
tells us how it plans to use its nuclear weapons." There is a 
possibility that the discussion in Japan on arming itself with 
nuclear weapons will gain momentum. The United States is apparently 
responded positively to Japan's call for regular talks on the 
nuclear umbrella in deference to Japan's domestic circumstances. 
 
(16) Regular Japan-U.S. consultations on "nuclear umbrella": U.S. 
gives consideration to alleviating Japan's anxiety; difficult to 
implement 
 
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full) 
July 19, 2009 
 
Takashi Sudo 
 
The Japan-U.S. Security Sub-Committee (SSC) meeting of director 
general level officials of the two governments responsible for 
foreign policy and defense held on July 18 agreed to hold regular 
consultations on the "nuclear umbrella (extended deterrence)." This 
is meant for the U.S. to explain the Obama administration's nuclear 
policy in order to alleviate the anxiety of Japan, which has been 
shaken by North Korea's second nuclear test. U.S. Assistant 
Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said that the regular consultations 
will "confirm that the nuclear umbrella is strong" and will be held 
in the next few weeks. In anticipation of a change of administration 
in Japan after the forthcoming House of Representatives election, 
the U.S. also wants to put in place a mechanism for bilateral 
consultations. 
 
There have been concerns in Japan about the reliability of the U.S. 
 
TOKYO 00001638  011 OF 012 
 
 
"nuclear umbrella" to counteract China's and North Korea's nuclear 
arms in the event progress is made in the U.S.-Russia nuclear 
disarmament talks under the Obama administration's new nuclear 
policy. 
 
Japan and the U.S. have repeatedly confirmed the "nuclear umbrella" 
at summit meetings and other venues. However, in reality, "there is 
no concrete picture of what happens next." (senior Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs (MOFA) official) The regular consultations agreed 
upon this time will only be at the deputy minister level, and it is 
very doubtful if substantial discussions can be conducted between 
the U.S., a nuclear power, and Japan, a non-nuclear power. 
 
The U.S. will issue its "Nuclear Posture Review," which is the 
embodiment of the Obama administration's nuclear policy, by the end 
of 2009. The nuclear umbrella for the allies is a major theme in 
this document. 
 
Campbell, who participated in the SSC meeting, emphasized the 
importance of this gathering of four senior foreign policy and 
defense officials. This is supposed to demonstrate that the U.S. has 
sent its officials to Japan to hear out the views of its ally. There 
are concerns in the U.S. that North Korea's accelerated nuclear 
armament may lead Japan and the Republic of Korea to acquire a 
nuclear capability out of apprehensions about the nuclear umbrella 
in a domino effect. The United States' purpose in highlighting the 
regular consultations is to alleviate Japan's anxiety. 
 
A senior MOFA official who attended the SSC meeting says: "The 
operation of nuclear weapons is top secret for the U.S. While we 
will get a briefing, concrete discussions will be limited." A senior 
Ministry of Defense official also notes that, "Actual operation of 
nuclear weapons in an emergency will not be discussed." Although the 
format will be a consultation, in reality, the substance will remain 
a one-sided briefing by the U.S. for Japan like before. 
 
(17) Regular nuclear-umbrella talks: Japan, U.S. to share 
intelligence to strengthen deterrence capabilities 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
July 19, 2009 
 
The governments of Japan and the U.S. will shortly launch their 
first regular conference to discuss deterrence, including nuclear 
umbrella. Amid U.S. President Obama promoting nuclear disarmament 
with an eye on a nuclear-free world, Japan aims to become 
proactively involved in the U.S. effort to review its nuclear 
strategy. 
 
The two countries at the envisaged talks will discuss sharing 
intelligence on the system of deterring proliferation with the use 
of U.S. strategic nuclear weapons and specific approaches to 
emergency situations, such as missile launches by North Korea. Japan 
also intends to ask the U.S. to brief it on U.S.-Russia talks on the 
signing of a new treaty replacing their Strategic Arms Reduction 
Treaty I (START I). 
 
Japan wants to have its wishes reflected in the work of renewing the 
U.S. report on a review of the nuclear structure, on which it is now 
pressing ahead. The Japanese government's stance is that it is 
necessary to maintain a nuclear deterrence. Meanwhile it praises and 
backs President Obama's active stance to move on nuclear 
 
TOKYO 00001638  012 OF 012 
 
 
disarmament. Both countries want to jointly search for an effective 
deterrence system, by combining it with Japan's conventional weapons 
and missile defense. 
 
(18) Futenma relocation at least outside Okinawa: Hatoyama 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
July 20, 2009) 
 
Yukio Hatoyama, president of the leading opposition Democratic Party 
of Japan (Minshuto), attended a town hall meeting held yesterday in 
Okinawa City, Okinawa Prefecture, during which he said his party, 
when taking office after the forthcoming election for the House of 
Representatives, would like to take positive action to relocate the 
U.S. military's Futenma airfield "at least outside Okinawa 
Prefecture" from its current location in Ginowan City in the island 
prefecture. Futenma airfield is to be relocated to a coastal area of 
Camp Schwab in Nago City in the prefecture, where an alternative 
facility will be built. "It's unreasonable to have Okinawa maintain 
its excessive base-hosting burden," Hatoyama said. 
 
(19) Government to propose joint quake drill in Indonesia at ARF 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
July 21, 2009 
 
The governments of Japan and Indonesia have decided to call for a 
joint disaster-relief drill participated in by the military and 
private sectors at the next ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). They intend 
to carry out the drill in Indonesia based on the scenario of a major 
earthquake. The foreign ministers of the two countries will announce 
the plan at the 16th ARF. 
 
The drill will include search and rescue operations, medical 
activities, construction of a shelter, and transport of the victims. 
The aim of the drill is to promote understanding and cooperation 
among the countries concerned. 
 
The timing for the drill has yet to be decided, but Japan plans to 
send officials from the Defense Ministry, the Self-Defense Force, 
the Foreign Ministry, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency 
(JICA). Japan also intends to cooperate in drawing up a scenario and 
bearing the necessary costs. 
 
The ARF (participated in by 27 countries and regions) was launched 
in 1994 as an arena for discussing regional security issues. In 
recent years, however, the member countries are trying to turn the 
forum into a framework for implementing specific cooperative 
actions. The planned drill is part of this move. 
 
This May, the first drill based on the scenario of a typhoon was 
held in waters off Manila, co-sponsored by the governments of the 
U.S. and the Philippines. 
 
POST