VZCZCXRO6474
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #1594/01 1950428
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 140428Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4538
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/CTF 72
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 7552
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 5225
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 9031
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 2721
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 5742
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0447
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 6472
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6136

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 13 TOKYO 001594 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 07/14/09 
 
Index: 
1) Top headlines 
2) Editorials 
3) Prime Minister's daily schedule  (Nikkei) 
 
Election frenzy: 
4) Prime Minister Aso declares he will dissolve the House of 
Representatives on July 21 for an August 30 snap general election; 
Decision splits party views  (Sankei) 
5) Prime Minister Aso's statement: "Will not flee; will fight" 
(Nikkei) 
6) Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), New Komeito shocked by the 
results of the Tokyo Assembly election  (Nikkei) 
7) Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has lead in all 25 wards in Tokyo 
going into next Lower House election  (Yomiuri) 
8) DPJ to win majority: Akamatsu  (Mainichi) 
9) DPJ welcomes Aso's decision to dissolve the Lower House for an 
election but still worried that he might be toppled and a fresh face 
will lead the LDP  (Sankei) 
10) Yoshimi Watanabe to form new party  (Sankei) 
11) DPJ sees the Tokyo election paving the way for an easy victory 
in the national election  (Tokyo Shimbun) 
12) LDP decides not to run Miyazaki Mayor Higashikokubaru on its 
election ticket, calculating it may be a negative factor  (Tokyo 
Shimbun) 
13) LDP's Nobuteru Ishihara quits post as Tokyo election strategist 
to take responsibility for party's defeat  (Mainichi) 
 
14) One of "hired assassins" of the Koizumi era who won an LDP seat 
in the 2005 election, lawmaker Nagasaki, quits the party suddenly 
(Tokyo Shimbun) 
15) U.S. concerned about the domestic political situation in Japan 
having adverse impact on the alliance and U.S. base situation in 
Japan  (Sankei) 
16) One of the casualties of the early Diet dissolution will be the 
scrapping of the bill to allow cargo searches of suspicious North 
Korean ships  (Mainichi) 
 
17) LDP's Kono Taro, chair of the foreign affairs committee in the 
Lower House, calls for the government to refute its "lies" and admit 
secret nuclear pact with U.S.  (Mainichi) 
 
18) China may have restarted developing Shirakaba gas field in the 
¶E. China Sea, a violation of joint cooperation agreement with Japan 
(Yomiuri) 
 
Articles: 
 
1) TOP HEADLINES 
 
Asahi: 
Prime Minister Aso announces Lower House dissolution as last-ditch 
measure 
 
Mainichi: 
Aso makes last-ditch decision 
 
Yomiuri: 
Aso announces Aug. 30 Lower House election 
 
Nikkei: 
Nissan to boost auto output capacity in China by 20 percent 
 
TOKYO 00001594  002 OF 013 
 
 
 
Sankei: 
Aso announces July 21 Lower House dissolution, Aug. 30 general 
election 
 
Tokyo Shimbun: 
Aso: Who will replace me? 
 
Akahata: 
No-confidence motion against Aso cabinet 
 
2) EDITORIALS 
 
Asahi: 
(1) Aug. 30 Lower House election: We have been kept waiting so long 
(2) Organ Transplant Law: Many problems still need to be solved 
 
Mainichi: 
(1) Aug. 30 general election: Day to choose a party will finally 
arrive 
(2) Organ Transplant Revision Law: Hasty decision made on debate 
about life 
 
Yomiuri: 
Aug. 30 election: Policies, ability to hold power being tested 
 
Nikkei: 
(1) Prime Minister Aso should demonstrate policies for Aug. 30 Lower 
House race 
(2) Organ transplant should be carried out based on understanding of 
families of brain dead patients 
 
Sankei: 
Aug. 30 election: LDP must start afresh; Can Aso overcome headwind? 
 
Tokyo Shimbun: 
(1) Aug. 30 election: Aso's decision downplayed 
(2) Organ Transplant Revision Law: Much consideration should be 
given to donors' side 
 
Akahata: 
Japan-U.S. nuclear secret deal should be completely revealed and 
abolished 
 
3) Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei) 
 
Prime Minister's schedule, July 13 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
July 14, 2009 
 
07:29 Took a walk around the official residence. 
09:31 Arrived at the Kantei. 
10:50 Met with Special Assistant to Party President Shimamura. 
11:04 Met with Secretary General Hosoda and Diet Affairs Committee 
Chairman Oshima. 
12:00 Met with New Komeito head Ota and Secretary General Kitagawa. 
Hosoda was present. Then met with Hosoda, General Council Chairman 
Sasagawa, Policy Research Council Chairman Hori, Oshima, Election 
Committee Chairman Koga, and LDP caucus in the Upper House Chairman 
Otsuji. 
12:50 Government-ruling party liaison council meeting. Koga stayed 
 
TOKYO 00001594  003 OF 013 
 
 
behind. 
13:50 Met with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Asano. 
14:04 Met with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Uruma. 
16:18 Met with Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura. 
17:52 Monthly economic report-related cabinet meeting 
19:35 Arrived at the official residence. 
 
4) Diet dissolution on July 21, general election on August 30: PM 
Aso makes tough decision, bowing to wishes of the LDP, New Komeito 
 
SANKEI (Top play) (Abridged) 
July 14, 2009 
 
Prime Minister Taro Aso decided on July 13 to dissolve the House of 
Representatives on July 21, schedule the official declaration of 
candidacy on August 18, and hold the election on August 30. Both the 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and New Komeito leadership have 
agreed to this timetable. Aso had, at first, wanted to dissolve the 
Diet on July 14 and hold the election on August 8, but gave up on 
this plan due to expected opposition from the ruling parties. 
Deciding on a date for Diet dissolution right after the LDP's 
crushing defeat in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election is also 
meant to thwart "oust Aso" movements in the party. 
 
Aso summoned LDP Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda and other 
officials to the Prime Minister's Official Residence on the morning 
of July 13 for final consultations. This was followed by an ad hoc 
LDP executive meeting and a meeting with New Komeito leader Akihiro 
Ota to obtain their consent. A formal announcement was made at the 
liaison meeting between the government and the ruling parties. 
 
Meanwhile, the opposition parties, the DPJ, the Japanese Communist 
Party, the Social Democratic Party, and the People's New Party 
submitted a motion of no confidence against the cabinet in the Lower 
House and a motion of censure against the prime minister in the 
Upper House. The motion of no confidence is expected to be rejected 
by a majority vote of the ruling parties in the Lower House, but the 
censure motion will be passed by an opposition majority in the Upper 
House on July 14. The opposition parties have decided to boycott 
Diet business after the censure motion is passed, so there is no 
hope for the enactment of the special measures law enabling cargo 
inspection on North Korea-related ships and the bill on civil 
service reform. 
 
On July 12, the day the Tokyo election was held, Aso was holed up in 
his official residential quarters watching TV in the living room. 
 
"Galileo Galilei once said: 'Still, the earth moves on.' I would 
like to ask the people whether postal privatization is really 
necessary..." 
 
The TV screen was showing (then) Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi 
announcing the dissolution of the Diet at a news conference on the 
night of August 8, 2005. 
 
Aso had been fully aware of how tough the situation was. Yet, even 
if he stepped down and held the presidential election ahead of 
schedule, would the LDP find a way out of its current predicament? 
The collapse of the party needed to be avoided by all means, even at 
the expense of falling from power. He wanted to at least set the 
course for Diet dissolution and the general election... 
 
 
TOKYO 00001594  004 OF 013 
 
 
Having made up his mind, Aso called Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo 
Kawamura and other senior officials on the evening of July 12 and 
told them: "I have decided to hold the Lower House election in early 
August. Find out what the party members think." 
 
The prime minister had remained determined on the next day, July 13. 
Just after 11:00 a.m. Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda and Diet 
Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima rushed into the prime 
minister's office. "The aftereffects of the Tokyo election linger. 
What are you going to do about the position of New Komeito, to which 
we owe much?" They asked for putting off Diet dissolution, but Aso 
was stubborn. He said: "The DPJ is going to submit motions of no 
confidence and censure. Diet business will stop anyway, so I will 
dissolve the Diet on July 14." 
 
Oshima and others persisted and finally suggested dissolving the 
Diet on July 21, when the Emperor will be back from his overseas 
trip. This date would also be acceptable to New Komeito, which had 
been demanding that the election be held after the Bon festival 
(August 13-15). After much agonizing, Aso said: "Very well, I will 
make the announcement today." 
 
At the beginning of the government-ruling parties liaison meeting, 
which was delayed for 30 minutes, the prime minister stated: "I have 
said that the Tokyo election is unrelated to national politics, but 
there is no denying that the trouble in the LDP had an adverse 
effect. I am very sorry. I would like to dissolve the Diet early 
next week to seek the people's verdict. The election will be held on 
August 30. It will indeed be an uphill battle, but I ask you to 
fight hard in order to protect the people's livelihood from the 
economic crisis." 
 
5) Gist of prime minister's statement: "We will fight without 
backing off" 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
July 14, 2009 
 
The gist of a statement Prime Minister made during a press 
conference on July 13 is as follows: 
 
I will dissolve the Lower House early in the week starting on the 
21st and hold a general election on August 30. I have conveyed this 
to senior members of the ruling parties. I would like to seek the 
people's mandate through this election. The point of contention is 
which party will protect your livelihoods and defend Japan. The 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is calling for a change in 
government. However, it has not yet come up with realistic policies 
and fiscal resources to finance them. Economic stimulus measures 
must continue to be carried out under the initiative of a 
responsible party. 
 
(Have you decided to dissolve the Diet to contain a move to remove 
Prime Minister Aso?) 
 
Not at all. 
 
You won't know the outcome of the election until you try. You cannot 
hold an election at your convenience. 
 
Various criticisms were expressed through the Tokyo election. If 
they are criticisms of me, I must humbly reflect on them. I should 
 
TOKYO 00001594  005 OF 013 
 
 
not resort to an irresponsible attitude of throwing away my duty and 
resigning. This is the crucial point at which I must clench my teeth 
and work hard. I must continue to fight without backing off. 
 
6) Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election result deals blow to LDP, 
New Komeito: DPJ secures 40 percent of vote, while LDP gains 25 
percent: LDP wins in one single-seat constituency, while losing in 
six 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
July 14, 2009 
 
The result of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election on July 12 
has dealt a blow both to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the 
New Komeito. The LDP's share in the vote largely fell below that of 
the DPJ. Seven of 42 constituencies are single-seat constituencies, 
of which the LDP won in only one constituency. The LDP lagged behind 
the DPJ in many multiple-seat constituencies as well. 
 
The DPJ gained 40.79 percent  PERCENT  of the vote, extensively 
topping the LDP's 25.88 PERCENT . If this ratio is likened to the 
proportional representation in the Lower House election (180 seats), 
73 seats go to the DPJ and 46 to the LDP. 
 
The LDP won in five single-seat constituencies in the previous Tokyo 
Metropolitan Assembly election in 2005. However, this time 
DPJ-backed candidates won in those LDP-dominated constituencies one 
after another, as can be seen by a fresh candidate running on the 
LDP ticket stopping a veteran LDP candidate from being elected for 
the seventh term. 
 
A certain incumbent minister lamented, "If the situation is likened 
to the single-seat constituencies in the Lower House election, the 
DPJ secures 300 seats. In the previous Lower House election, the LDP 
and the New Komeito won in 24 out of 25 single-seat constituencies, 
overwhelming the DPJ. A person who once served as LDP secretary 
general expressed a sense of crisis, "Single-seat constituencies in 
a Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election work, based on the same 
mechanism as that of a Lower House election." 
 
DPJ candidates elected secured the largest share of the vote in 38 
of 42 constituencies. The party proactively fielded candidates in 
multiple-seat constituencies and succeeded in having more than two 
candidates elected in each of many such constituencies. DPJ 
candidates occupied the top three seats in the Setagaya constituency 
with eight seats. A senior DPJ Tokyo Chapter member said, "We may 
need candidates running only for proportional representation in case 
we win too many seats in single-seat constituencies (in the upcoming 
Lower House election)." 
 
A senior New Komeito member said with a sigh, "We must fully analyze 
the result of the Tokyo election and make most of the analysis for 
the upcoming Lower House election. Even so, we are not sure whether 
we can win, as a boost for the DPJ is so strong." 
 
7) Prediction of Lower House election based on Tokyo election 
results: DPJ has advantage in all 25 Tokyo districts 
 
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) 
July 14, 2009 
 
The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, which was regarded as a 
 
TOKYO 00001594  006 OF 013 
 
 
prelude to the House of Representatives election, ended in a 
landslide victory for the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). The 
results of this election are widely seen as a "leading indicator" of 
the Lower House election taking place on August 30, but the fact 
that there is a period of seven weeks before the Lower House 
election may have an impact. 
 
Completely different from last time 
 
We applied the number of votes won by the official candidates of the 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the DPJ in the Tokyo election (a 
total of 58) to the 25 single-seat districts in Tokyo in the Lower 
House election. In cases where one administrative unit straddles 
more than one constituency, votes were divided according to the 
ratio of voters. The results show that except for the 21st district 
in the western part (consisting of Tachikawa City, etc.), votes for 
the DPJ exceeded those for the LDP in all constituencies. However, 
the independent candidate endorsed by the DPJ won in the Tokyo 
election in Akishima City in the 21st district. If votes for him are 
also counted, the DPJ enjoys an advantage in all districts. 
 
Although cooperation between political parties and such other 
factors need to be taken into account for the Lower House election, 
the balance of power between the two parties has changed completely 
from the 2005 Lower House election, where the LDP won 23 seats and 
lost only one seat. Even if votes for New Komeito candidates in the 
Tokyo election are added to the LDP votes, the ruling parties are 
leading only in 10 districts. The DPJ is leading even in the 10th 
district (consisting of Toshima Ward, etc.), where former Defense 
Minister Yuriko Koike won a decisive victory over the DPJ candidate 
last time. 
 
The reason why the LDP was able to win about 30 percent of the seats 
with about 26 percent of the votes in the Tokyo election is because 
it was helped by the mid-sized election district system, where more 
than one candidate is elected in some districts. The LDP lost to the 
DPJ official candidates or candidates it endorsed in six of the 
seven single-seat districts. Under the present situation, the same 
thing may happen in many districts in the Lower House election, 
where all constituencies elect only one candidate. 
 
Voter turnout 
 
In the mayoral and gubernatorial elections held this year where 
there was a head-on clash between the ruling and opposition parties, 
the voter turnout mostly exceeded the previous election. Voter 
turnout in the Nagoya mayor election in April was 50.54 percent, 
which is 23.04 percentage points higher than the previous one. The 
same is true for the Shizuoka gubernatorial race in July, with a 
turnout of 61.06 percent, representing a 16.57 point increase. After 
the Nagoya election in particular, higher voter turnout led to 
victory for DPJ-affiliated candidates. This was also true in the 
Tokyo election, where the turnout was 54.49 percent, more than 10 
points higher than the previous election. It would be interesting to 
see if the same trend continues into the Lower House election. 
 
Impact of seven weeks 
 
In most past cases where the Tokyo election became the "leading 
indicator" of a national election, there was a time lag of around 
one month between the two elections. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001594  007 OF 013 
 
 
The time lag was three weeks in 1989, when the defunct Japan 
Socialist Party made big gains, and in 1993, which saw the LDP 
driven from power. The time lag for the 2001 House of Councillors 
election held amid the "Koizumi boom" was five weeks. 
 
It is believed that Prime Minister Taro Aso, who had been 
contemplating the dissolution of the Lower House right after the 
Tokyo election, decided to hold the election on August 30 in 
deference to the wishes of the ruling parties to "put off Diet 
dissolution in order to get back on their feet. The question now is 
whether the situation can be turned around in seven weeks. 
 
8) DPJ to win majority: Akamatsu 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Abridged) 
July 14, 2009 
 
Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) Election Campaign Committee 
Chairman Hirotaka Akamatsu, appearing on a BS-11 digital news 
program aired yesterday, indicated that the DPJ would secure a 
single-party majority in the next election for the House of 
Representatives. "Modestly speaking," Akamatsu said, "I'm expecting 
our party to garner 249 seats." He also said, "The momentum shown in 
the local elections (such as the Tokyo metropolitan assembly 
election) is strong." 
 
However, Akamatsu stressed that even the DPJ, even if gains a 
single-party majority, will form a coalition with the Social 
Democratic Party and the People's New Party in an aim to stabilize 
its government. 
 
9) Welcoming mood in DPJ for Aso's dissolution statement; Party 
remains on alert for LDP moves to oust Aso 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Full) 
July 14, 2009 
 
There is a growing mood in the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to 
welcome Prime Minister Taro Aso's announcement yesterday that he 
will dissolve the House of Representatives (on July 21) to hold a 
general election on Aug. 30. The reason is because the DPJ has 
judged that it would be advantageous for the party to complete the 
Lower House election with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by 
Prime Minister Taro Aso, who has been suffering from critically low 
support rates. 
 
A junior DPJ lawmaker commented on Aso's dissolution statement: "The 
Prime Minister has now stepped into the ring we have prepared," 
showing his willingness to fight. The largest opposition party has 
strengthened confrontation with the LDP by submitting yesterday a 
no-confidence motion and censure motion against the Aso cabinet. 
 
However, the DPJ is concerned about a possibility that moves to 
remove Aso from office will regain momentum, since there are 30 days 
from dissolution to the start of the official campaigning for the 
general election, and that the LDP will go into the election under 
the leadership of a new president. A senior party member expressed a 
skeptical view about the LDP fighting in the snap election under the 
Aso administration, noting: "I wonder if political maneuvering will 
start now in the LDP." 
 
Yesterday in the city of Niiza, Saitama Prefecture, DPJ President 
 
TOKYO 00001594  008 OF 013 
 
 
Yukio Hatoyama made an ironical comment on Aso's decision this 
time: 
 
"I still cannot see whether the (Prime Minister) really can dissolve 
the lower chamber on his own initiative and call a general election. 
I don't want him to make a flip-flop again in his remark." 
 
10) Yoshimi Watanabe to form new party 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Full) 
July 14, 2009 
 
Former Administrative Reform Minister Yoshimi Watanabe delivered a 
speech yesterday in Osaka City, in which he said: "If the House of 
Representatives is dissolved on July 21, I will form a new party on 
around that day." With regard to the number of members joining the 
new party, he said: "There are more than ten members, including 
incumbent and former Diet members and new-face candidates." 
 
Watanabe underscored: 
 
"I intend to have the new party become a springboard for political 
realignment. The new party will not become a supplementary force for 
the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The Democratic Party of Japan 
will win a majority of the Lower House. However, if we can build a 
force in some way in the Lower House election, moves (for political 
realignment) will occur before next year's House of Councillors 
election. The meaning of the new party's existence lies there." 
 
11) Prediction about outcome of Lower House election, based on Tokyo 
assembly election results: DPJ may win landslide victory 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Slightly abridged) 
July 14, 2009 
 
In the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election on July 12, the 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won an overwhelming victory. The 
voting behavior evokes predictions that the DPJ will also win a 
victory in the House of Representatives election set for Aug. 30. 
 
LDP unlikely to turn the tables 
 
In the Tokyo Assembly election, the DPJ captured 40.7 PERCENT  of 
the vote, while the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) gained 25.8 
PERCENT , with the DPJ securing about 15 percentage points more than 
the LDP. This result is in contrast to that in the previous Lower 
House election in 2005, in which the LDP enjoyed an overwhelming 
victory, with the privatization of postal services as the top issue. 
 
 
In the previous Lower House election, the LDP put up candidates on 
the party ticket in all 24 constituencies in Tokyo except for the 
No. 12 constituency, in which New Komeito President Akihiro Ota ran. 
The party finished with a 23-1 record in the election. 
 
In the Tokyo Assembly election, however, the DPJ garnered more votes 
than the LDP in 25 constituencies that include the No. 11 and No. 12 
constituencies, in which the DPJ did not field any candidates. If 
the votes cast for the New Komeito are added, the LDP is expected to 
be able to rally to some extent, but various data show that at the 
present point of time it would be difficult for the LDP to turn the 
tables. 
 
TOKYO 00001594  009 OF 013 
 
 
 
In forecasting the outcome of the next Lower House election, we 
should pay attention to the results in the seven single-seat 
constituencies, because in the Lower House election, candidates 
fight in single-seat constituencies. In the Tokyo election, the LDP 
recorded only one win in the seven districts. 
 
According to an exit poll conducted by the Tokyo Shimbun, the number 
of respondents who said they would vote for the DPJ in the 
proportional representation segment in the next Lower House election 
surpassed those who said they voted for the party in the Tokyo 
election. This means that a more favorable wind might blow for the 
DPJ in the Lower House election. 
 
Meiji University Professor Masamichi Ida, an expert on relations 
between public opinion and politics, commented: 
 
"A series of public opinion polls show that 40 PERCENT  of the 
public support the DPJ while 25 PERCENT  back the LDP. I think it is 
inconceivable that public support for the DPJ will significantly 
drop.... Many LDP members in the Lower House are well-known, and the 
party has powerful organizational strength, but the Tokyo election 
results found that the DPJ has overcome such negative factors (as a 
lack of publicity and organizational strength). The outcome of the 
Tokyo Assembly election will affect voting patterns across the 
nation, so it is fully conceivable that the outcome of the upcoming 
election will be the exact opposite to that of the previous 
election." 
 
12) LDP to give up on fielding Higashikokubaru 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
July 14, 2009 
 
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) had asked Miyazaki Governor Hideo 
Higashikokubaru to run for the upcoming House of Representatives 
election as a candidate endorsed by the party in the proportional 
representation segment. But the party began coordinating to abandon 
the plan yesterday. 
 
Prime Minister Aso and Election Strategy Council Chairman Makoto 
Koga discussed a strategy for the Lower House election at the Prime 
Minister's Official Residence and agreed on the view that it would 
work negatively for the party to focus too heavily on the popularity 
of its candidates. 
 
After meeting with Aso, Koga told reporters: "We must conduct an 
election in a stately manner and in a way that does not tarnish our 
party's history, according to the prime minister's wishes" 
indicating a cautious view about the idea of putting up the Miyazaki 
governor in an about-face from his previous stance. 
 
Many are critical of fielding Higashikokubaru for the Lower House 
election. Some persons even attribute the LDP's defeat in the Tokyo 
Assembly election in part to the party's approach to him. 
 
The ruling parties agreed to fight the upcoming election under Prime 
Minister Aso, so it has also become difficult to allow 
Higashikokubaru to run for the election as the "candidate as the 
next prime minister." 
 
Meanwhile, Higashikokubaru told reporters at the Miyazaki 
 
TOKYO 00001594  010 OF 013 
 
 
Prefectural Government Office yesterday that Beat Takeshi had told 
him to give up on running for the election, adding that "I would 
like to take it seriously." Regarding a final decision, though, he 
just said: "I cannot give a reply now." 
 
13) Five LDP Tokyo chapter officers, including Ishihara, leave their 
fate to supreme advisors in wake of party's defeat in Tokyo 
election 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
July 14, 2009 
 
Takuji Tanaka 
 
In the wake of the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) crushing defeat 
in the (July 12) Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, the LDP Tokyo 
chapter's five officers, including Senior Deputy Secretary General 
Nobuteru Ishihara, informed in writing their intent to leave a 
decision on whether to resign from their posts to the chapter's 
supreme advisors, including former Agriculture, Forestry and 
Fisheries Minister Yoshinobu Shimamura. The letter said, "It is 
truly regrettable that we failed to meet the expectations of party 
members and fraternity members." 
 
With the next House of Representatives election near at hand, they 
might be dissuaded from resigning. 
 
14) Nagasaki leaves LDP 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Excerpt) 
July 14, 2009 
 
House of Representatives member Kotaro Nagasaki of the Liberal 
Democratic Party's (LDP) (Minami Kanto in the proportional 
representation segment) yesterday submitted a letter of secession 
from the party to Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda, and the letter 
was accepted. In the next Lower House election, he will run in the 
Yamanashi No. 2 constituency as an independent. 
 
15) U.S. paying close attention to Aug. 30 election, concerned about 
security, bases 
 
SANKEI (Page 8) (Full) 
July 14, 2009 
 
Takashi Arimoto, Washington 
 
After the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's crushing defeat in the 
recent Tokyo metropolitan assembly election, Prime Minister Taro Aso 
has now made up his mind to dissolve the House of Representatives 
for a general election. U.S. experts are voicing concerns about its 
possible impact on bilateral security and other areas. One of them 
said, "The political situation in Japan has become unclear." 
 
The New York Times, in an online report dated July 13, noted the 
Tokyo metropolitan assembly election's linkage with the outcome of 
the forthcoming election for the House of Representatives, saying it 
traditionally has been a barometer that foretells Japan's national 
politics. 
 
A Japan hand at a U.S. think tank, which is close to the Obama 
administration, presumes that security issues could be exploited 
 
TOKYO 00001594  011 OF 013 
 
 
politically, saying that Japan-U.S. relations will face difficult 
times. 
 
Japan and the United States will discuss North Korea's nuclear and 
ballistic missile development, U.S. force realignment, and other 
issues when U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and 
Pacific Affairs Campbell and U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for 
Asian and Pacific Security Affairs Gregson visit Japan this weekend. 
The foregoing Japan hand says: "Japan will remain unable to make 
decisions for a while due to domestic turmoil, so the U.S. force 
realignment and other issues cannot be expected to make progress, 
either." 
 
Late last month, former Assistant Secretary of Defense Joseph Nye, 
who is an expert on Japan, testified before the House of 
Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee's Asian and Pacific 
affairs subcommittee, stating: "The uncertainty of Japanese politics 
will continue for the next several years and this is likely to cause 
friction in the alliance." 
 
In addition, Michael Green, former senior director for Asian affairs 
at the National Security Council (NSC), also testifying before the 
House subcommittee, showed a severe view of the leading opposition 
Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto), stating: "They support the 
Japan-U.S. alliance. However, they are making noise by saying (the 
alliance) should be more equal and Japan should be more independent. 
They have no plans for the transition of power and there are 
confrontations within their party over security policy, so even if 
they take office, it is unclear how long they will be in office." 
 
16) Cargo inspection bill to be scrapped 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Abridged) 
July 14, 2009 
 
The House of Representatives Special Committee on Antipiracy and 
Antiterrorism Measures decided yesterday to take a vote today on a 
government-introduced cargo inspection bill for inspections of ships 
heading to and from North Korea, and pass the legislation through 
the House of Representatives. In the House of Councillors, however, 
the opposition parties will refuse to deliberate on the bill. The 
bill is therefore expected to be abandoned due to the dissolution of 
the House of Representatives. 
 
17) LDP's Kono charges government's replies denying a secret nuclear 
pact as false; Motion to be submitted seeking correction of past 
replies 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
July 14, 2009 
 
Takashi Sudo 
 
House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Taro 
Kono of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) held a press conference 
in the Diet building yesterday in which he acknowledged the 
existence of a secret pact allowing port calls by warships carrying 
nuclear weapons that was concluded when the U.S.-Japan Security 
Treaty was revised in 1960. At the same time, Kono criticized the 
government's past response denying the pact as false. He also 
indicated that as chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, he will 
not allow the government to repeat its past answers denying the 
 
TOKYO 00001594  012 OF 013 
 
 
secret deal, while revealing a committee plan to submit a resolution 
seeking the correction of the government's replies. 
 
Kono indicated that he had listened in person to several persons 
concerned, including Former Vice-Foreign Minister Ryohei Murata who 
has acknowledged the existence of the secret pact. Kono said as a 
result: "I heard that there was a concrete secret agreement. That 
coincides with the official documents made public in the United 
States as well as with the statement by former U.S. Ambassador to 
Japan Edwin Reischauer (who revealed the existence of the secret 
accord to the Mainichi Shimbun in 1981)." As the reason seeking the 
correction of the government's replies, Kono said: "Given North 
Korea's nuclear tests, Japan's nuclear deterrent must be considered. 
We must also discuss the effectiveness of the nuclear umbrella 
(under the Japan-U.S. alliance) against China' nuclear weapons. We 
cannot conduct discussions based on the government's current 
reply." 
 
Kono also revealed that he has obtained Murata's consent to testify 
before the committee, adding that due to Murata's difficulty to come 
to Tokyo from his home in Kyoto because of his family circumstances, 
the committee will consider procedures for questioning him in 
Kyoto. 
 
But because the opposition camp submitted yesterday a no-confidence 
motion against the cabinet, the committee may not be able to meet 
before the dissolution of the Lower House. The ruling camp is 
showing a cautious stance, with an executive saying, "We must not do 
anything causing us to lose points before the Lower House election." 
Meanwhile, Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura made the following 
statement about Kono's intent at yesterday's Lower House antipiracy 
and antiterrorism special committee meeting: "Past prime ministers 
and foreign ministers replied that there was no secret agreement, 
and I, too, believe there is no such pact." Kawamura was responding 
to a question from Tomoko Abe of the Social Democratic Party. 
 
18) China has resumed Shirakaba gas field development? 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
July 14, 2009 
 
It has been learned that China is making a move that can be taken as 
preparations for the resumption of the development of the Shirakaba 
(Chunxiao in Chinese) gas field, whose joint development the 
governments of Japan and China have agreed on. China was seen 
delivering materials to the site. More than one government source 
revealed this on July 13. 
 
If it actually resumes the development work, such as drilling, the 
case will be a clear violation of the agreement reached in June 
between Tokyo and Beijing. The Japanese government is determined to 
monitor the development of the situation. If it confirmed the 
resumption of the development, it will strictly lodge a protest 
through a diplomatic channel. 
 
The Self-Defense Forces' plane has confirmed that several Chinese 
vessels have been gathering around the site since last week. In 
response to an inquiry made the Japanese government, the Chinese 
government replied that the work is to check and maintain the 
facilities there. However, a later investigation by the Japanese 
government has reportedly found that the Chinese vessels were 
delivering materials that have nothing to do with the maintenance of 
 
TOKYO 00001594  013 OF 013 
 
 
the facilities. 
 
POST