VZCZCXRO9344
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #1543/01 1880656
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 070656Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4369
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/CTF 72
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 7416
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 5085
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 8888
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 2598
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 5606
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0317
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 6337
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6013

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 14 TOKYO 001543 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/07/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Drive to unseat Aso with prime minister paralyzed in LDP (Asahi) 
 
 
(2) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties (Yomiuri) 
 
(3) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(4) Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura welcomes U.S.-Russia nuclear 
reduction agreement (Sankei) 
 
(5) USTR issues statement on regulatory reform, expresses "concerns 
on Japan's beef import restrictions and Kanpo insurance" (Nikkei) 
 
(6) Interview with Michael Green, former presidential assistant: 
Diversified tools necessary for decision-making (Nikkei) 
 
(7) "Seiron" column: Do not let Murata's good intentions go to waste 
(Sankei) 
 
(8) Redefining Japan's policy stance (part 1): Aim to achieve wise 
government (Nikkei) 
 
(9) Profile of New IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano (Asahi) 
 
(10) Simulation of DPJ administration's foreign and security 
policies after three months in power (Shukan Post) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Drive to unseat Aso with prime minister paralyzed in LDP 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Excerpts) 
July 4, 2009 
 
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is now being faced with 
ultimate choices --whether to unseat Taro Aso as prime minister or 
to dissolve the House of Representatives in desperation. With the 
loss of the Shizuoka gubernatorial election, many in the LDP are 
convinced that the party cannot contest the next Lower House 
election under Aso's leadership, but that replacing the prime 
minister for the third time in a row would not be tolerated. The LDP 
has been unable to find a successor to Aso. As it stands, the party 
is now caught in a dilemma. 
 
LDP Election Strategy Council Deputy Chairman Yoshihide Suga told 
reporters yesterday: "This election was not a vote of confidence on 
the Aso administration. A gubernatorial election does not affect a 
national election." 
 
However, junior lawmakers, whose political bases are weak, have 
objected. Lower House member Koichiro Shimizu said: "Some say that a 
local election has nothing to do with a national election. That's 
not true. It is a problem that we think that we cannot fight in the 
election under Mr. Aso's leadership." A former LDP secretary general 
expressed his outlook that moves to find ways to oust Aso as prime 
minister will move into full swing. 
 
Former Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa has already said: "(Aso) 
can make an honorable decision," suggesting that Aso resign. In the 
New Komeito, the LDP's junior coalition partner, one member said: "I 
 
TOKYO 00001543  002 OF 014 
 
 
think we will lose the general election even if the prime minister 
is replaced. But replacing Aso is better than keeping him in 
office." Attention has begun shifting to who will succeed Aso. 
However, it is difficult to predict whether Aso will be removed from 
office if the ruling camp fails to secure a majority of the Tokyo 
Metropolitan Assembly seats. 
 
In a LDP executive meeting yesterday evening, General Affairs 
Committee Chairman Takashi Sasagawa criticized the drive to unseat 
Aso as prime minister, saying: "We formed the Aso cabinet with the 
consensus of all members last September. Before that, we were 
criticized by the public for the two previous cabinets lasting only 
one year. The public cannot understand the idea of moving up the LDP 
presidential race." 
 
Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda, LDP members, both stepped down from 
their posts as prime minister out of the blue. Some LDP leaders are 
concerned that if Aso is replaced, the LDP will unavoidably be 
subjected to severe criticism from the public. 
 
In a spot nationwide public opinion poll conducted by the Asahi 
Shimbun, 65 percent of respondents said that they "cannot understand 
the move to remove Aso from office" and 67 percent of LDP supporters 
said that they "cannot understand." Asked about the LDP's image 
after the party asked Miyazaki Gov. Hideo Higashikokubaru to run in 
the snap election on the LDP ticket, only 10 percent said that the 
image was improved, while 44 percent answered that the image became 
worse. These figures indicate that that the public is watching the 
LDP's "useless resistance" coldly. 
 
(2) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties 
 
YOMIURI (Page 11) (Abridged) 
July 4, 2009 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage) 
 
Q: Do you support the Aso cabinet? 
 
Yes 19.7 
No 66.4 
Other answers (O/A) 2.1 
No answer (N/A) 11.8 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "yes" to the foregoing question) 
Pick only one from among the following reasons for your approval of 
the Aso cabinet. 
 
Something can be expected of its policy measures 16.4 
The prime minister has leadership ability 5.3 
There's something stable about the prime minister 8.5 
His cabinet's lineup is good 7.6 
Because it's a coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the New 
Komeito 45.8 
O/A 3.9 
N/A 12.6 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "no" to the foregoing question) Pick 
only one from among the following reasons for your disapproval of 
the Aso cabinet. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001543  003 OF 014 
 
 
Nothing can be expected of its policy measures 29.1 
The prime minister lacks leadership ability 34.8 
There's nothing stable about the prime minister 20.2 
His cabinet's lineup is not good 2.7 
Because it's a coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the New 
Komeito 10.2 
O/A 0.3 
N/A 2.7 
 
Q: Which political party do you support now? Pick only one. 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 25.5 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 28.6 
New Komeito (NK) 3.7 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 1.7 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1.1 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.2 
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) --- 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) --- 
Other political parties 0.0 
None 35.6 
N/A 3.5 
 
Q: When comparing Prime Minister Aso and DPJ President Hatoyama, who 
do you think is more appropriate to be prime minister? 
 
Prime Minister Aso 23.9 
DPJ President Hatoyama 40.6 
N/A 35.5 
 
Q: Do you think the DPJ will be able to take the reins of government 
in the next election for the House of Representatives? 
 
Yes 47.1 
No 39.0 
N/A 13.9 
 
 
Q: Prime Minister Aso has appointed Yoshimasa Hayashi to the post of 
State Minister for Economic and Fiscal policy, which Finance 
Minister Yosano had held concurrently, and he has also appointed 
Motoo Hayashi to the post of National Public Safety Commission 
chairman, which Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Sato 
had held concurrently. Do you appreciate these cabinet ministerial 
appointments this time? 
 
Yes 15.7 
No 56.4 
N/A 27.9 
 
Q: Prime Minister Aso has forgone his plan to change the LDP's 
executive lineup along with the cabinet ministerial appointments 
this time. Do you think Prime Minister Aso displayed his leadership 
in the series of personnel appointments? 
 
Yes 8.9 
No 83.2 
N/A 7.9 
 
Q: DPJ President Hatoyama's fund management body submitted political 
fund reports that contained false information about individual 
political donations. DPJ President Hatoyama explained that it was 
 
TOKYO 00001543  004 OF 014 
 
 
done at his secretary's discretion. Do you think he has fulfilled 
his accountability? 
 
Yes 10.3 
No 79.7 
N/A 10.0 
 
Q: Do you think DPJ President Hatoyama should resign from his party 
post to take responsibility for this problem? 
 
Yes 29.5 
No 56.7 
N/A 13.9 
 
Q: If an election were to be held now for the House of 
Representatives, which political party would you like to vote for in 
your proportional representation bloc? 
 
LDP 25.4 
DPJ 35.2 
NK 3.8 
JCP 3.1 
SDP 1.2 
PNP 0.3 
RC --- 
NPN --- 
Other political parties 0.1 
Undecided 25.2 
N/A 5.7 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted July 2-3 across the 
nation on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. 
Households with one or more eligible voters totaled 1,732. Valid 
answers were obtained from 1,021 persons (58.9 PERCENT ). 
 
(Note) In some cases, the total percentage does not add up to 100 
PERCENT  due to rounding. 
 
(3) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Abridged) 
July 6, 2009 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage. Parentheses denote the results of the 
last survey conducted June 13-14.) 
 
Q: Do you support the Aso cabinet? 
 
Yes 23.4 (17.5) 
No 60.9 (70.5) 
Don't know (D/K) + no answer (N/A) 15.7 (11.9) 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "yes" to the previous question) 
What's the primary reason for your approval of the Aso cabinet? Pick 
only one from among those listed below. 
 
The prime minister is trustworthy 13.6 (20.4) 
Because it's a coalition cabinet of the Liberal Democratic Party and 
the New Komeito 10.9 (9.5) 
The prime minister has leadership ability 1.4 (3.6) 
Something can be expected of its economic policies 10.6 (11.3) 
 
TOKYO 00001543  005 OF 014 
 
 
Something can be expected of its foreign policies 7.1 (6.4) 
Something can be expected of its political reforms 5.7 (0.4) 
Something can be expected of its tax reforms 0.7 (0.5) 
Something can be expected of its administrative reforms 5.3 (0.9) 
There's no other appropriate person (for prime minister) 42.7 
(44.3) 
Other answers (O/A) 0.6 (0.6) 
D/K+N/A 1.4 (2.1) 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "no" to the first question) What's 
the primary reason for your disapproval of the Aso cabinet? Pick 
only one from among those listed below. 
 
The prime minister is untrustworthy 17.2 (13.9) 
Because it's a coalition cabinet of the Liberal Democratic Party and 
the New Komeito 8.1 (7.8) 
The prime minister lacks leadership ability 25.9 (23.0) 
Nothing can be expected of its economic policies 19.7 (18.8) 
Nothing can be expected of its foreign policies 1.2 (0.7) 
Nothing can be expected of its political reforms 11.6 (10.8) 
Nothing can be expected of its tax reforms 4.7 (5.6) 
Nothing can be expected of its administrative reforms 5.9 (5.9) 
Don't like the prime minister's personal character 4.7 (12.0) 
O/A --- (0.4) 
D/K+N/A 1.0 (1.1) 
 
Q: Prime Minister Aso has appointed former Defense Minister 
Yoshimasa Hayashi to the post of state minister for economic and 
fiscal policy and LDP Deputy Secretary General Motoo Hayashi to the 
post of National Public Safety Commission chairman. Do you 
appreciate these appointments? 
 
Yes 8.9 
No 38.7 
Can't say which 47.2 
D/K+N/A 5.2 
 
Q: Prime Minister Aso did not replace the LDP's executive lineup, 
including the secretary general, due to opposition from within the 
LDP. Instead, he only appointed a few cabinet ministers. What do you 
think about this? 
 
He should have shuffled the LDP's executive lineup 19.6 
He had no alternative to making only those personnel changes  25.1 
He should not have made any personnel changes in his cabinet 43.3 
D/K+N/A 12.0 
 
Q: DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama admitted that his fund management 
body's political fund reports contained false information about 
individual donations. He explained that his own personal funds were 
used for the reported donations. Is this account convincing? 
 
Yes 12.4 
No 78.3 
D/K+N/A 9.3 
 
 
Q: Would you like the present LDP-led coalition government to 
continue, would you like it to be replaced with a DPJ-led coalition 
government, or would you otherwise like a new framework of political 
parties to form a coalition government? 
 
 
TOKYO 00001543  006 OF 014 
 
 
LDP-led coalition government 19.6 (14.9) 
DPJ-led coalition government 26.6 (35.9) 
LDP-DPJ grand coalition 13.9 (14.7) 
New framework under political realignment 32.6 (28.0) 
D/K+N/A 7.3 (6.5) 
 
Q: Which political party are you going to vote for in the next House 
of Representatives election in your proportional representation 
bloc? 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 26.3 (18.7) 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 34.3 (47.8) 
New Komeito (NK) 5.9 (2.7) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 4.5 (3.2) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1.2 (1.8) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.7 (1.6) 
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) --- (---) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0.4 (0.2) 
Other political parties, groups --- (0.2) 
D/K+N/A 26.7 (23.8) 
 
Q: When comparing Prime Minister Aso and DPJ President Hatoyama, 
which one do you think is more appropriate for prime minister? 
 
Taro Aso 28.3 (21.5) 
Yukio Hatoyama 42.0 (50.4) 
D/K+N/A 29.7 (28.1) 
 
Q: Which political party do you support? 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 27.2 (19.8) 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 26.5 (38.5) 
New Komeito (NK) 4.1 (2.1) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 4.5 (2.0) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1.0 (1.8) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.3 (0.5) 
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) --- (0.1) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0.1 (0.1) 
Other political parties, groups 0.1 (0.3) 
None 32.5 (33.4) 
D/K+N/A 3.7 (1.4) 
 
Polling methodology: This survey was conducted across the nation on 
July 3-4 by Kyodo News Service on a computer-aided random digit 
dialing (RDD) basis. Among randomly generated telephone numbers, 
those actually for household use with one or more eligible voters 
totaled 1,462. Answers were obtained from 1,022 persons. 
 
(4) Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura welcomes U.S.-Russia nuclear 
reduction agreement 
 
SANKEI  (Online) (Full) 
12:07, July 7, 2009 
 
In the U.S.-Russia summit meeting (held on July 6), the two leaders 
agreed on the framework of an agreement replacing the Strategic Arms 
Reduction Treaty I (START I). Touching on this fact, Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Takeo Kawamura stated at a press conference this morning: 
"We highly evaluate this as definite progress in the treaty talks. 
The government of Japan welcomes it." 
 
Kawamura also said, "We expect the conclusion of a meaningful treaty 
 
TOKYO 00001543  007 OF 014 
 
 
that will contribute to progress on global nuclear disarmament and 
to success in the 2010 Review Conference of the Nuclear 
Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)." He expressed his hopes for the 
conclusion of the negotiation before the treaty's expiration in 
December. 
 
(5) USTR issues statement on regulatory reform, expresses "concerns 
on Japan's beef import restrictions and Kanpo insurance" 
 
NIKKEI (Online) (Full) 
13:30, July 7, 2009 
 
Yusuke Yoneyama, Washington 
 
U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk issued a statement on July 6 to 
coincide with the publication of a report on the Japan-U.S. 
"Regulatory Reform Initiative." He said that he "continues to have 
serious concerns about restrictions on U.S. beef imports and the 
competition conditions with regard to Kanpo (Japan Post Insurance 
Company)," and that he "looks to the Japanese government to address 
these concerns quickly," indicating his hopes for the early removal 
of the restrictions on beef imports. 
 
Due to the BSE problem, the Japanese government limits the import of 
U.S. beef to meat obtained from cattle "aged 20 months or younger." 
However, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) has 
recognized the safety of U.S. beef, and Japanese beef is also 
recognized as having a similar safety level as U.S. beef, leading 
the U.S. side to feel strongly that the import restrictions are 
inappropriate. 
 
(6) Interview with Michael Green, former presidential assistant: 
Diversified tools necessary for decision-making 
 
NIKKEI (Page 5) (Full) 
 
-- With the world marching toward multi-polarization, which way 
should the United States go? 
 
"The United States' physical strength may be on the decline, but 
American values have kept winning. Such values as democracy, the 
rule of law, and human rights are supported in Latin America, Asia, 
and Eastern Europe, and as a result, the United States' hegemony 
appears to be expanding." 
 
"Like China and Iran, countries with power surpassing that of the 
United States have risen in their respective regions. But there are 
rival countries near such regional powers to strike a balance. In 
Asia, Japan and South Korea are such countries, and Egypt and Saudi 
Arabia in the Middle East. The United States should team up with 
those countries." 
 
Countries not powerless 
 
-- The influences of non-state organizations, such as armed 
insurgents and nongovernmental organizations (NGO), are growing. 
 
"According to Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass 
and Newsweek International Editor Fareed Zakaria, the world will 
become non-polar and states no longer will hold power. I think 
states will remain as main players in international relations. 
Alliances must be strengthened in order to maintain the power 
 
TOKYO 00001543  008 OF 014 
 
 
balance between states." 
 
-- Do you think the modalities of the international decision-making 
mechanism will significantly change as well? 
 
"Some people say that the United Nations must be strengthened, while 
some others say that high priority should be put on the coalition of 
the willing of democracies. I would like to say, 'Mobilize them 
all.' It is important to have a toolbox containing many tools." 
 
-- The Iranian government has suspended the development of natural 
gas with a French firm and concluded a contract with a Chinese 
corporation instead. 
 
"China may have won a contract, but the country has become isolated 
because of it. During the era of President Chirac, France tried to 
counter the United States by teaming up with Germany and China. The 
situation today is quite different. France has consulted with the 
United States about addressing the question of China." 
 
China does not desire a zero-sum game 
 
-- China is the world's largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds. The 
United States seems to have some reserve toward China. 
 
"In the bipolar world during the Cold War, the zero-sum game in 
which one participant's gains result only from another's equivalent 
losses reigned supreme. China today does not desire a zero-sum game 
with the United States. A decline in the prices of U.S. Treasury 
bonds from their sales will cause trouble for China. I don't think 
the Chinese leadership has that much political power." 
 
"But China's military buildup worries me. The reason is because the 
country has significantly increased its capabilities in such fields 
as satellites, cyberspace, and submarines. The aim is to demonstrate 
China's presence in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the 
East China Sea. The United States should sell F-22 fighter jets to 
Japan and F-16s to Taiwan to maintain the power balance. It would be 
better for Japan, the United States, Australia, and India to conduct 
maritime exercises. There is a need to give the impression that the 
more China pursues its unclear military buildup, the tighter the 
solidarity among its neighboring countries will become." 
 
-- What is your view of North Korea's nuclear development? 
 
"What the United States fears is that the Kim Jong Il regime will 
collapse and North Korean nuclear weapons will fall in the hands of 
al-Qaeda and other international terrorist groups. The nuclear 
deterrent seems to work with the Kim regime which wants to maintain 
the current system but not with al-Qaeda which does not hesitate to 
resort to suicide bombings. In such a case, chances are that nuclear 
weapons will be used on New York, Washington, or Jerusalem rather 
than on Tokyo or Seoul. That is why the United States places an 
emphasis on nuclear nonproliferation." 
 
(7) "Seiron" column: Do not let Murata's good intentions go to 
waste 
 
SANKEI (Page 7) (Full) 
July 7, 2009 
 
Hisahiko Okazaki, former ambassador to Thailand 
 
TOKYO 00001543  009 OF 014 
 
 
 
Disappointing follow-up response 
 
When I read former Vice Foreign Minister Ryohei Murata's remarks on 
the nuclear issue in the newspaper, I was excited and hopeful that 
there would be new developments on this issue. 
 
Although I have not contacted Mr. Murata, it is obvious that he 
sacrificed his own interest in making those remarks. Civil servants 
are obliged to maintain the secrecy of information they obtain in 
the course of performing their duties, and this rule applies even 
after retirement. Penalties of up to one year imprisonment can be 
imposed for violating this rule. It is evident that he chose to take 
the risk and tell the truth. 
 
While such self-sacrifice is perhaps needed to change the 
government's rigid position over the years, I am disappointed that 
nothing has happened after the remarks were made. 
 
Certainly the government is taking a "safe" position to make sure 
that nobody gets hurt. If the secret agreement (on the U.S. forces 
bringing nuclear weapons into Japan) does not really exist, there is 
no secret to keep, so no one has the obligation to keep the secret. 
Everything will be vanished into oblivion once again. However, such 
oblivion is only on the part of Japan. This does not hold water at 
all in the international community because the whole affair is like 
an ostrich hiding its head in the bush to flee from a hunter. 
 
When I met the late Dr Edwin Reischauer (former U.S. ambassador to 
Japan), he was not indignant about "Foreign Minister Ohira's 
explicit promise" but was exasperated by the absurdity of the 
situation. Furthermore, the meeting (between Reischauer and Ohira in 
April 1963) has been confirmed by U.S. diplomatic documents 
subsequently. What I am worried about is that if Japan continues to 
carry on like this, it will be unable to engage in strategic 
dialogue with the United States to reinforce the bilateral 
alliance. 
 
Statement does not breach the confidentiality obligation 
 
In another article I wrote previously for this column, I mentioned 
that the Japan-U.S. strategic dialogue proposed by Deputy Secretary 
of State Richard Armitage came to nothing while the U.S.-China 
strategic dialogue conducted under his successor Robert Zoellick was 
very successful. The U.S. side showed great enthusiasm for both 
dialogues, so it is not to blame for the failure of the Japan-U.S. 
talks. 
 
Many people say that China is now more important for the U.S., so 
Japan will be abandoned. Such worries are completely unnecessary 
under the present situation as far as the U.S. side is concerned. 
Kurt Campbell has said that: "The best way to deal with China is to 
strengthen U.S. partnership with Japan as much as possible. That is 
the only option. Without such a foundation, nothing can be 
accomplished in Asia." 
 
Here, what I am worried about is that Japan, due to its incompetence 
in strategic dialogue, may not be in a position to respond to the 
United States' good intentions. 
 
In light of North Korea's nuclear armament, there have been noisy 
discussions about the effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, or 
 
TOKYO 00001543  010 OF 014 
 
 
the so-called extended deterrence, for Japan. A discussion on 
nuclear strategy is inevitable between allies when they discuss 
military strategy. As a matter of fact, NATO's Nuclear Planning 
Group (NPG) regularly discusses nuclear strategy. 
 
Needless to say, it is also desirable to have a similar venue for 
consultation and planning between Japan and the U.S. But how can 
common strategy be discussed when Japan continues to deny even 
something it once promised? 
 
Whether Mr. Murata's remarks constitute a violation of his 
confidentiality obligation may be a trivial matter to him, but I 
think this is not a violation. If this case is brought to court, the 
substance of the secret - whether it is indeed a matter that needs 
to be kept confidential - will be examined. Blowing the whistle on 
anomalies in the bureaucracy does not violate the confidentiality 
obligation. In this case, the secret agreement has already been 
disclosed in U.S. diplomatic documents, so unless there are very 
special or overriding reasons, it does not need to be kept 
confidential. 
 
Policies that will not tie hands in the future 
 
What I had hoped after the Murata remarks was that the government 
would stop its temporizing statements soon and revert to 
intellectual integrity. 
 
With the subsequent advancement in military technology, the impact 
of this issue on reality has diminished. The issue here is 
intellectual integrity that forms the foundation of the relationship 
of trust and strategic dialogue between allies. If Japan engages in 
honest strategic dialogue now, the conclusion may well be that 
unless there is a major change in the situation, port calls by U.S. 
ships carrying nuclear weapons will be unnecessary. 
 
I look forward to a change in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
government's position in the future. 
 
In the case of a Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) administration, I 
pray that it will break away from the inertia of the LDP era, 
acknowledge the existence of the international commitment between 
Ohira and Reischauer, and show its intellectual integrity in 
creating a new venue for Japan-U.S. strategic consultations. 
 
Soon after the inauguration of the new administration, the mass 
media will probably try to reconfirm the government positions upheld 
until now, including the interpretation of the three non-nuclear 
principles. I hope the DPJ will only say that it will not be bound 
by the prejudices of the LDP era and will make a comprehensive 
review as the need arises and not commit itself prematurely. Unless 
it is able to do so, having a system of two major political parties 
will be meaningless; and if it succeeds, the DPJ's victory will have 
historical significance. 
 
Having been liberated from past positions, I hope that people of 
intellectual integrity, regardless of whether they are rightist or 
leftist in ideology, will no longer say things like "Japan has the 
right to collective self-defense but is unable to exercise it." 
 
(8) Redefining Japan's policy stance (part 1): Aim to achieve wise 
government 
 
 
TOKYO 00001543  011 OF 014 
 
 
NIKKEI (Page 1) (Excerpts) 
July 7, 2009 
 
By Naoaki Okabe, editor in chief at the head office 
 
The Japanese economy has climbed out of its worst phase, but there 
is no light to be seen at the end of the tunnel. The global economic 
crisis has dealt a most serious blow to an export-oriented Japan. 
Furthermore, second-rate politics is working as a drag on economic 
recovery. Populism is making the government's policy stance 
inconsistent. A breakthrough can be found in efforts to recall 
Japan's policy stance and reconstruct it. 
 
Consistent policies urged 
 
The fatal error the Aso administration has committed is that it has 
deleted the words "structural reforms" from its policy menu. Fiscal 
spending and structural reforms do not contradict each other. In 
order to emerge from the ongoing recession, it is important to 
implement policies that are the combination of fiscal spending and 
structural reforms. Demand creation-type innovation can be achieved 
by three elements -- fiscal spending, structural reforms and 
entrepreneurship, according to Tokyo University Professor Hiroshi 
Yoshikawa. 
 
The Aso administration has aimed at shrugging off the Koizumi reform 
drive. The negative legacy of the Koizumi reform drive is not that 
his reforms were excessive but that both regulatory reform and 
decentralization were insufficient, with too much importance 
attached to postal privatization. The Koizumi administration did not 
embark on an effort to hike the sales tax. It left reform of social 
security unattended. Japan lagged behind in major completion after 
the Cold War. Behind the so-called lost era are those blunders. 
 
The Aso administration was greatly buffeted by populism, unable to 
contain moves to go against political trends for reform to the time 
when postal privatization was carried out. This is the reason that 
Aso as the prime minister of a mature state has lost the confidence 
of Japan and other countries. 
 
An exit strategy and a growth strategy, which will set the future 
course of Japan, will be called into question in the upcoming 
general election. Japan will go into a rapidly aging society with 
the worst accumulated public debt among industrialized countries. It 
is impossible for it to flee from this grim reality. Voters should 
opt not for inconsistent policies, even if they sound pleasant to 
the ear, but for policies with vision, even if they are bitter 
tasting. 
 
In order to achieve a wise government, social security systems, such 
as public pension schemes, should be drastically reformed in 
preparation for the upcoming rapid aging of the  society. It would 
be easier to obtain public understanding, if the sales tax is hiked 
for the purpose of financing social security expenses. It is the 
responsibility of politics to build a secure society in a bipartisan 
way. 
 
It is also necessary to tackle tax code reform as well as social 
security reform. What is necessary is to lower the corporate tax, 
the highest in the world, to revitalize the Japanese economy. 
 
Population and human resources hold the key 
 
TOKYO 00001543  012 OF 014 
 
 
 
Population and human resources hold the key to a growth strategy. 
What is needed is a comprehensive strategy to tackle the declining 
birthrate, by putting up a birthrate goal, and build a society in 
which people can rear children with peace of mind. Japan should also 
aim to open the country to human resources. Boosting investment in 
education is indispensable in nurturing entrepreneurship. 
 
A low carbon society revolution for the prevention of global warming 
is the 21st version of the Industrial Revolution. Technical 
innovation, such as the developments of new energies and electric 
vehicles, is burgeoning here and there. Higher barriers are 
advantageous to Japan, as it has accumulated environmental 
technologies. 
 
It is also important to adopt bring in the energy of East Asia, 
which is strong even at a time of a crisis. Now is the time to 
present a roadmap for integrating East Asian economies. 
 
Once the major recession is over, the political pendulum, which has 
gone far in one direction, is bound to swing back. When it returns 
to the previous position, what will be sought is neither a small 
government nor a big government but a wise government. It is 
unavoidable for the government to intervene, when the market makes 
mistakes. However, if the government bails out management failures, 
the logic of capitalism will collapse. Market mechanisms will 
continue to be the core of capitalism. Wise regulations that move 
the market are needed. 
 
The cascade of economic and political crises has caused the loss of 
confidence in Japan. As Japanese prime ministers change so often, 
they are not referred to by name at G8s or G20s. It is now time for 
voters to revamp politics so as to rebuild Japan's policy stance, 
looking 20 years or 30 years ahead. 
 
(9) Profile of New IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano 
 
ASAHI (Page 2) (Full) 
July 3, 2009 
 
Toru Kaneko, Vienna Bureau 
 
Yuki Amano, 62, after being elected director general of the 
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressed his 
determination to the press corps: "Japan is considered a model 
country in terms of the peaceful use of nuclear energy and promotion 
of nuclear nonproliferation. I would like to tell that to the 
world." Nine months have passed since he first ran in the election 
held late last September to choose the new IAEA head. He has finally 
landed the post in his second attempt. 
 
He is the first Japanese to head the IAEA, an international 
organization of 2,300 experts that seeks to promote the peaceful use 
of nuclear energy. 
 
Amano entered the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) in 1972. He has 
served in the nuclear energy and nonproliferation area for about 15 
years. As a representative of the industrialized countries, he 
worked on completely shutting down the Chernobyl nuclear power 
plant. His coordination ability is highly valued. He will aim at 
saying what he has to say. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001543  013 OF 014 
 
 
When he was young, he was fond of astronomical observation. Dreaming 
to win a Nobel Prize, he entered the department of science at the 
University of Tokyo, but he only lasted one year there. He then 
reentered the same university (graduating from the law faculty.) 
This part of career is well-known in the ministry. 
 
He recalls the words, "Please don't let the tragedy of atomic 
bombings be repeated," which atomic-bomb victims said every time he 
had visited Hiroshima and Nagasaki for the memorial service for the 
dead. He will now have to deal with the Iranian and North Korean 
nuclear issues. 
 
(10) Simulation of DPJ administration's foreign and security 
policies after three months in power 
 
SHUKAN POST (Pages 34-35) (Excerpts) 
July 17, 2009 
 
Foreign and security policy: Greatest vulnerability of coalition 
government of strange bedfellows; Cabinet disintegrates due to 
disagreement after North Korea fires Taepodong missile 
 
The U.S. electronic reconnaissance aircraft Cobra Ball detected the 
launching of a ballistic missile from North Korea. Prime Minister 
Yukio Hatoyama was notified immediately at the Prime Minister's 
Official Residence (Kantei). He was about to order the Aegis ships 
in the Sea of Japan to intercept the missile. 
 
"Mr Prime Minister! It is unacceptable to wage war!!" cried Mizuho 
Fukushima, state minister for the declining birth rate, rushing into 
the prime minister's office at the Kantei. As Fukushima and Hatoyama 
were engaged in fierce debate, the Taepodong missile flew over Akita 
Prefecture. Fortunately, Japan did not suffer any damage. However, 
the Social Democratic Party (SDP) declared its withdrawal from the 
coalition government that very day, and the Hatoyama administration 
was now forced to steer the government as a minority ruling party. 
 
The most obvious "structural problem" of a coalition government led 
by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is said to be in the areas of 
foreign and security policy affairs. 
 
Professor Satoshi Morimoto of the Institute of Global Studies, 
Takushoku University, made the following comment: "While the 
assumption is to form a coalition government with the SDP, the DPJ 
has within its folds conservatives like Vice President Seiji 
Maehara. In other words, it is an alliance of strange bedfellows. 
For this reason, the DPJ is still not actively revealing its foreign 
policy even now, when a change of government is fast approaching." 
 
Its vague stance is also reflected in the criticisms voiced in the 
party after former President Ichiro Ozawa made his statement that 
"the Seventh Fleet will be sufficient for U.S. presence in the Far 
East." 
 
Security policy is regarded as the DPJ coalition government's 
greatest vulnerability. That is the reason why Prime Minister Taro 
Aso suddenly brought up the question of the Seventh Fleet toward the 
end of the second round of party leaders' debate, when time was 
running out. 
 
Morimoto observes that: "The Seventh Fleet operates in the entire 
West Pacific; it is not in the vicinity of Japan all the time. This 
 
TOKYO 00001543  014 OF 014 
 
 
is a unit that is only effective with collaboration with U.S. Forces 
Japan (USFJ). If the USFJ withdraws from Japan, leaving only the 
Seventh Fleet behind, will Japan reinforce the Self-Defense Forces? 
It is irresponsible to evade this issue, and there is no doubt that 
the DPJ's thinking is putting the country at risk." 
 
For sure, passages such as "establishing an independent foreign 
policy" and "a genuinely equal alliance with the United States" can 
be found in the DPJ's policy index, but concrete policies are 
absent. 
 
However, from its record in the Diet, the party has opposed both the 
extension of the special antiterrorism measures law and the 
anti-piracy law. A senior DPJ official claims that, "Once we assume 
power, we will withdraw from the Indian Ocean and from waters off 
Somalia." 
 
However, one needs to take a hard look at this policy. 
 
Morimoto explains that: "The Indian Ocean mission is part of the 
operations in Afghanistan, which is a top priority to U.S. President 
Barack Obama. (The DPJ) has not provided a vision of how it intends 
to rebuild the Japan-U.S. alliance after the withdrawal. 
Furthermore, the advanced countries are engaged in joint support 
operations in the Indian Ocean. Japan's unilateral withdrawal will 
have an impact on aspects other than the Japan-U.S. relationship. 
This will undermine national interest." 
 
Around 2,000 Japanese tankers pass through the Indian Ocean each 
year. If a detour becomes necessary because of the absence of 
escorting by the Maritime Self-Defense Force, this will jack up fuel 
costs. It has been pointed out that in such a case, oil prices will 
rise, and this will affect the people's livelihood. Yet, the DPJ has 
not come up with a solution. 
 
In the first place, some even say that this withdrawal policy is 
just an "expedient" to co-opt the SDP. It will be too pathetic if 
after taking over power, the cabinet "disintegrates in midair due to 
internal disagreement" once a problem arises. 
 
A "hit-or-miss gamble" is simply unacceptable when it comes to the 
question of how to protect the people's life. 
 
ZUMWALT