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DE RUEHTI #0448/01 1871437
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P 061437Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY TIRANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8282
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000448 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL AL
SUBJECT:  ELECTION UPDATE 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE TREAT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: On July 3, the Central Election Commission (CEC) 
announced preliminary election results, giving Sali Berisha's 
Democratic Party coalition a 71-65 lead over the Socialist Party 
coalition in terms of seats won.  The SP immediately cried foul, 
saying the CEC has no right to discuss preliminary results (whether 
or not the statement was illegal remains a matter of debate in legal 
circles).  The CEC is still deliberating over the fate of a number 
of "irregular" ballot boxes from Fier district, although a decision 
on the boxes is expected on Tuesday.  At least 15 electoral 
"challenges" have been filed by various small parties so far, with 
none filed by any of the three largest parties (LSI, DP and SP), 
although it is almost certain that some challenges will be filed 
later.  On July 4, former PM and Chairman of the Movement for 
Socialist Integration (LSI) Party Ilir Meta announced his decision 
to enter into a coalition with the DP, theoretically giving Sali 
Berisha the support of four more MPs when Parliament convenes in 
September.  But Meta's announcement has touched off much grumbling 
within the ranks of LSI, and given the fluid nature of 
 
Albanian politics, Meta's announcement should be taken with several 
boxes of salt.  END SUMMARY. 
Election Results Still Pending 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The CEC has not yet announced the final results of the 
June 28 election, known as the "tabulation of results".  And even 
when that announcement does come, likely sometime on Tuesday, it 
will only open the door to a large number of expected challenges to 
the results, meaning truly final results will only come sometime 
near the end of July, when all challenges and appeals have been 
heard.  The CEC did announce "preliminary results" on July 3, an 
announcement that touched off a firestorm of criticism from the SP, 
which claimed that the CEC has no legal right to announce even 
preliminary results prior to the completion of the counting of all 
votes (whether or not the CEC statement truly was illegal remains a 
matter of debate). 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The CEC has at least six disputed boxes left to count from 
Fier district.  According to CEC, SP and DP sources, the CEC must 
first tabulate the results from Fier, minus the votes contained 
inside the six "irregular boxes," at which point the SP will 
challenge the tabulation and force the CEC to make a decision on 
whether or not to open and count the disputed boxes.  Although the 
SP claims that the DP is trying to block consideration of the 
disputed boxes, one DP source told PolOff that the DP would have no 
grounds to block the counting of the six boxes.  If the CEC 
determines that the votes left in the six boxes are not enough to 
change the outcome of the election in Fier, it can deny the request 
to open the boxes.  But because the six boxes contain a large number 
of votes, it seems unlikely that the CEC would make this 
determination.  Mayor of Tirana and SP leader Edi Rama told OSCE 
Ambassador on July 5 that the SP would boycott the CEC and any 
parliamentary assembly if the Fier boxes are not counted before the 
challenges process begins, although at a July 6 press conference, 
Rama's boycott threat was more vague, and seemed to imply the SP 
would walk out only in the event the CEC decides not to count the 
boxes at all. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) According to the CEC, the Fier boxes will likely be opened 
and counted only on Tuesday, following an expected SP challenge to 
the "tabulation of results", a process which should end sometime on 
Monday or Tuesday.  Following a decision on the Fier boxes, the CEC 
will begin hearing electoral challenges.  As of July 6, at least 15 
challenges have been filed by smaller parties, with no challenges 
filed (yet) by the SP, DP or LSI. 
 
LSI, Berisha Announce Coalition 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In a press conference on July 4, LSI leader Ilir Meta 
announced his intention to accept Sali Berisha's invitation to Meta 
to join in a coalition with Berisha's DP when Parliament convenes in 
September.  Adding LSI's four votes to the DP's 70 or 71 (depending 
on the CEC final vote tabulation) would make at least 74/75 votes in 
favor of Berisha as PM (71 votes are needed to approve the PM). 
Meta described the decision to join forces with the PD as "the most 
difficult decision" of his political career, and said he remains a 
socialist, but added that he would join forces with Berisha "for the 
sake of Albanian integration".  In a separate interview with VOA, 
Meta said he had turned down an offer to enter into a coalition with 
SP Leader Edi Rama, alleging that the SP had bought the votes of 
other MPs in the Democratic Party in order to form a coalition - 
something Meta claimed he could not be a part of. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) COMMENT: Meta's announcement of an intended coalition with 
Berisha caught many observers off guard, most of whom had assumed 
that the lifelong socialist would never cut a deal with Berisha. 
Numerous sources told the Embassy that Meta's decision has touched 
 
TIRANA 00000448  002 OF 002 
 
 
off a firestorm of grumbling and criticism within LSI, and an LSI 
official announced that the party will hold a national party 
conference on July 7 to discuss the deal with Berisha.  Most 
observers believe that Meta will use the conference to convince or 
force the rest of his party leadership to go along with his 
coalition deal, although it remains to be seen how the party rank 
and file react.  Although Meta claimed that he was entering a 
coalition with Berisha for the sake of the country, LSI insiders 
readily admit that Meta has little choice - after a dismal showing 
in the elections, the party must either make a deal to get it back 
into power, or risk extinction as a party.  Given the fluid nature 
of Albanian politics, Meta's announcement should be seen as only the 
first shot in what promises to be a protracted war of deal making 
and breaking between now and the opening of the new parliament in 
September. 
 
WITHERS