VZCZCXRO6307
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK
RUEHYG
DE RUEHTI #0440/01 1870514
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 060514Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY TIRANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8273
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 2515
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0832
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000440 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AL
 
SUBJECT:  DP Declares Victory; Early Lessons from the Election 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: At this point it is likely that Sali Berisha's 
Democratic Party (DP) coalition will emerge as the winner of the 
June 28.  According to unofficial election results, the DP coalition 
has secured at least 70 seats, making the coalition the largest 
single coalition, and the Democratic Party the largest single party 
in terms of seats (68 seats vs. 65 for the opposition SP).  On July 
1, a candidate from the left-wing Socialist Movement for Integration 
(LSI) party announced that he is willing to join the DP coalition, 
which if true would apparently give Berisha and the DP coalition 71 
seats (although this won't be official until the CEC certifies the 
election results, a process that could take weeks).  Although the 
results themselves could take weeks to sort out, several broader 
trends from the election have already become apparent, including a 
dangerous over-politicization of the entire political process, 
consolidation of power into the hands of the two main parties, and 
the continued ability of a unified right wing to outfox a divided 
left.  The bigger question for us, however, is how such a weak 
majority can govern effectively, let alone achieve the reforms we 
and this country needs.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Unofficial Results 
------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Unofficially, PM Berisha's Democratic Party coalition has 
secured 70 seats, compared to 66 for the opposition SP and 4 for 
left-wing SP rival LSI.  Even though 70 seats is one short of the 71 
needed for a majority in the parliament, the 70 seats for the DP 
coalition gives the DP the advantage in forming the new government. 
If the CEC eventually certifies the election outcome, DP will have 
the first opportunity to form a government when the new parliament 
convenes in early September.  On July 1, an LSI candidate announced 
publicly that he is willing to join the DP coalition, theoretically 
giving the DP 71 seats.  However, this declaration amounts to little 
more than a gentlemen's agreement until the CEC certifies the 
election results - including the fact that the LSI candidate 
actually has a seat to give to the DP - a process that could take 
weeks.  DP Spokesperson Majlinda Bregu hinted at this supposed LSI 
defection when she declared victory for the DP coalition on July 1, 
claiming (without giving details) that the DP had secured 71 seats. 
 
 
Divided the Left Falls - Again 
------------------------------ 
¶3.  (SBU) Berisha assembled a 17-party coalition for the election, 
while the SP cobbled together only five parties.  More fatally, the 
SP and its left-wing rival LSI were unable to come to terms prior to 
the election, forcing the two parties to run as separate coalitions. 
 Altogether, the SP and LSI coalitions totaled 11 parties.  Taken as 
a whole, these left wing parties received 51 percent of all votes 
cast, vs. 47 percent for the DP coalition.  Had SP and LSI run 
together in one coalition, they almost certainly would have won the 
election.  On an individual party vs. party basis, the SP outpolled 
the DP by the slimmest of margins, 40.85 percent to 39.99 percent. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Over-politicization of Everything 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) ODIHR's preliminary assessment praised the professionalism 
of the Central Election Commission, but criticized the CEC for being 
divided along party lines.  The ODIHR report further criticized 
local election commissions and local government for excessive 
politicization of the local election commissions.  The local 
commissions, which are formed of members that are nominated by the 
parties, quickly became divided along political lines, and parties 
choose commission members not on the basis of integrity or 
competence, but rather on loyalty towards the party.  Although the 
local commissions, as well as the bi-partisan vote counting teams, 
have generally worked well together, even minor disputes quickly 
flare into political stalemates as the parties begin giving orders 
to their respective commissioners. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) ODIHR also cited numerous cases where the government 
(mainly the DP-lead central government, and in fewer cases SP-lead 
municipal governments) pressured state employees and school children 
to participate in campaign rallies, as well as to vote a certain 
 
TIRANA 00000440  002 OF 002 
 
 
way.  The Berisha government, and to a lesser extent Edi Rama as 
Mayor of Tirana, used government events such as ribbon cuttings as 
campaign events, complete with party flags and banners.  In 
addition, DP heavyweights such as Foreign Minister Basha and 
Transportation Minister Olldashi apparently used ministry vehicles 
and other resources in running their campaigns in Elbasan and Fier, 
respectively. 
 
Death of the Small Parties 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) As predicted by many political analysts (and the smaller 
political parties themselves), the new electoral code proved to be a 
disaster for the smaller political parties.  When the new parliament 
convenes in September, the DP and SP will control at least 133 of 
the 140 seats, as opposed to only 100 of 140 seats in the prior 
parliament.  Of the 37 parties that contested the elections, only 
four received more than two percent of the vote.  Whereas the PD and 
SP each received 40 percent, the next largest party, LSI, received 
only 4.8 percent of the vote.  If the current results stand, SP will 
control 65 of the 66 seats received by its coalition. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) COMMENT: There will be much more backroom dealing and 
wheeling in weeks to come as the CEC moves towards certifying the 
elections and allocating seats.  All the while, Sali Berisha will 
use all means necessary to lure more deputies into his coalition. 
The SP has already stated publicly that they will challenge the 
election results in at least two districts.  Although this comes as 
no surprise, it could drag out the certifying process as the CEC 
reviews each complaint.  Fortunately, the CEC has plenty of 
experience in adjudicating electoral challenges, and the complaint 
process is clearly laid out in the law, provided the CEC members 
don't succumb to their partisan instincts. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) COMMENT CONT'D: A larger problem for USG interests is how 
effective such a narrowly-divided political system can be. 
Important legislation, including reform measures crucial to us, 
often require an 84-seat super-majority in Parliament - hard to 
achieve in the currently bitterly partisan atmosphere.  The DP 
coalition may barely cling to power, but to its governing 
mechanisms, not so much.