VZCZCXRO5799
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #1657/01 2051420
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 241420Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2795
INFO RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001657 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE. NSC FOR SHAPIRO/KUMAR. JOINT STAFF 
FOR LTGEN SELVA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL KWBG IS
SUBJECT: MOD SAYS NO MASS OUTPOST EVACUATION PLANNED, 
DESPITE SECURITY FORCE TRAINING 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 1656 
 
 ¶1. (SBU) On 23 July, Amos Gilad, director of the MOD's 
Political Military Bureau, told Ambassador that recent 
Israeli press reports inaccurately stated that the MOD is 
planning a one-day mass evacuation of outposts (reftel). From 
21-22 June, Ha'aretz reported that the MOD had formulated a 
plan, approved by PM Netanyahu, to evacuate 23 post-March 
2001 outposts. The reports further claimed that Border 
Police, Civil Police and the IDF held joint exercises two 
weeks ago to prepare for the pending operation. IDF and 
Police spokespersons immediately denied the existence of any 
such plan. Gilad opined that the press claims were meant to 
agitate and galvanize pro-settler groups and prevent ongoing 
IDF operations against illegal outposts. He acknowledged that 
security forces are actively training for outpost 
evacuations, but said that no plan yet been formulated. Gilad 
also expressed frustration with the politicization of the 
issue, and stressed that the evacuations of outposts is a 
matter of law and order. 
 
----------------------- 
Could Such a Plan Work? 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) LTC (res) Ron Shatzberg from the Economic 
Cooperation Foundation told EconOff on 22 July that such a 
plan may exist, contrary to the denials of the security 
establishment, and expressed optimism that a large scale 
evacuation, if undertaken, could succeed. He provided a map 
showing locations of the outposts in question and their 
populations, and opined that a large-scale operation could 
spread settler groups thin and frustrate their efforts to 
protest or block evacuations. Moreover, since most of the 
outposts are on hilltops, Shatzberg explained that security 
forces would have an easier time controlling access to the 
sites. Shatzberg said that the most difficult part of any 
such operations would be dealing with settler violence and 
vandalism targeting Palestinians, and expressed concern that 
security forces would less likely be prepared to effectively 
deal with such actions. (Note: The aforementioned map can be 
viewed in the "Reporting Attachments" folder on Embassy Tel 
Aviv's classified website at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv/. End note.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) Shatzberg asserted that to achieve greatest success, 
security forces must remove all caravans from the West Bank, 
raze permanent structures, and find a way to render 
infrastructure (roads, water and electrical access, etc.) 
unusable. When Econoff asked about speculation that the IDF 
is worried about significant numbers of soldier refusing to 
participate in such an operation, Shatzberg, who served in 
Gaza during the disengagement, expressed confidence that the 
rank and file will carry out their orders, and that the IDF 
will find alternate duties for those deemed at high risk for 
refusal. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Settler Groups Prepared to Oppose Evacuations 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Settler groups recently established a command center 
to help identify imminent evacuations and mobilize their 
supporters. Ha'aretz reported and Shatzberg confirmed to 
EconOff that settlers have posted signs throughout the West 
Bank asking anyone who observes unusual movements by security 
forces to call a 24-hour outpost hotline. Shatzberg called 
the hotline and verified that it is up and running. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Comment: We would expect the MOD/IDF to deny the 
existence of a large-scale evacuation plan even if it 
existed. However, if they do plan a mass evacuation, security 
forces have certainly lost the element of surprise. 
Nonetheless, as LTC (res) Shatzberg noted, because of the 
geographic spread and terrain of the outposts, settler groups 
would likely have a difficult time staging effective 
protests. Moreover, the GOI's recent string of small outpost 
evacuations has likely given them some insight to the likely 
response of settlers. The lessons learned from these 
small-scale operations raise serious concerns, since settler 
response has been heavily focused against the persons and 
property of Palestinians (which the settlers refer to as 
their 'price tag' policy). In our upcoming meetings with MOD 
we plan to emphasize this concern, while stressing that that 
if such a plan exists and is acted upon, it would confirm the 
rule of law in Israel and Israel's commitment to the Road Map. 
 
TEL AVIV 00001657  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
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Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
********************************************* ******************** 
CUNNINGHAM