VZCZCXYZ0007
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTV #1516/01 1911023
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 101023Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2538
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAHQA/HQ USAF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEADWD/DA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CNO WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 5641
RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS PRIORITY 2220
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN PRIORITY 6194
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 6451
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 5684
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 4276
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 6513
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 3320
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1521
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 0210
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 7719
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY 2706
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 6713
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 8767
RUEHJI/AMCONSUL JEDDAH PRIORITY 1539
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM PRIORITY 2358
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/COMSIXTHFLT  PRIORITY

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 001516 
 
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM 
NSC FOR NEA STAFF 
 
SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA 
HQ USAF FOR XOXX 
DA WASHDC FOR SASA 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR PA 
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL FOR POLAD/USIA ADVISOR 
COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD 
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019 
 
JERUSALEM ALSO ICD 
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL 
PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
ROME FOR MFO 
 
SIPDIS 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS
 
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶1.  Mideast 
 
¶2.  Iran 
 
------------------------- 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------- 
 
The Jerusalem Post cited Israeli assessments that the U.S. and 
Israel both believe that QIran could, but probably won't, build a 
bomb within a year.Q  According to these appraisals, there is not 
much difference now between the U.S. and Israel regarding a timeline 
for a "worst case scenario" on Iran's development of a bomb.  At the 
same time, both Jerusalem and Washington reportedly currently 
believe that the "worst case scenario is not likely to materialize." 
 The newspaper quoted a senior GOI official who deals with the issue 
as saying:  "I would be careful about all the declarations on this 
matter."  The official added that a decision by Tehran to go full 
throttle toward the building of a bomb would depend on numerous 
different decisions the government would have to make, and which it 
had simply not yet made.  Major media quoted French President 
Nicolas Sarkozy as saying at the G-8 meeting in Italy that an 
Israeli attack on IranQs nuclear facilities would be an Qabsolute 
catastrophe. 
 
Makor Rishon-Hatzofe reported that President Shimon Peres presented 
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak with an offer for land exchanges 
between Israel and the Palestinians.  HaQaretz and Yediot reported 
that the G-8 leaders urged Hamas to free Gilad Shalit without delay. 
 Leading media reported that Mubarak blames Israel for the failure 
of the talks to release Shalit, because it has set new conditions 
for the deal.  Yediot reported that Mubarak made the same remark in 
an interview with the newspaper.  Israel Radio quoted senior GOI 
officials in Jerusalem as saying in response that Hamas is 
responsible for the situation.  The station reported that Israel 
rejected 125 names in the list of 450 prisoners presented by Hamas 
and asked Hamas to submit a new list, but Hamas has not done so. 
The radio later quoted Egyptian sources involved in the talks as 
saying that the negotiations over ShalitQs release will resume. 
 
Maariv provides a review, based on reports by PA security officials, 
of Hamas's future plans, both in regard to rebuilding its rocket 
arsenal and military after Operation Cast Lead, as well as an 
alleged decision by the Hamas leadership, both internal and 
external, to renew terror attacks from the Gaza Strip very soon, 
starting with attacks on IDF troops along the border, and graduating 
to rocket fire against Israeli communities.  These attacks, say the 
PA officials, will be carried out by "independent" organizations 
such as Jaljalat.  They also described Hamas's new defenses, which 
include landmines, explosives charges, and booby-trapped tunnels, 
along with a massive rocket fire array with better firing capability 
and longer range. 
 
Yediot reported that President Obama will QexceptionallyQ convene 
the leaders of the American-Jewish community on Monday and tell them 
that he is determined to reach a permanent-status agreement between 
Israel and the Palestinians during his term; he will reportedly urge 
Israel to do its part, including freezing construction in the 
settlements.  The newspaper says that this is a means of pressuring 
Netanyahu.  Yediot quoted sources in Washington as saying that 
National Security Adviser Uzi Arad, who said this week in interviews 
with news agencies that there is a Qconflict of interestsQ between 
the U.S. and Israel regarding the Iranian issue, might Qburn the 
tiesQ with the U.S. 
 
Leading media reported that last week PM Benjamin Netanyahu told 
visiting German FM Frank-Walter Steinmeier that QJudea and Samaria 
[i.e. the West Bank] cannot be Judenrein.Q  The term was employed by 
Nazis to refer to areas that had had been Qcleansed of Jews. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that the IDF is considering allowing the 
PA to establish a specially trained PA counter-terror squad -- a 
scaled-down version of the IDFQs elite reconnaissance units -- 
qualified to carry out pinpoint operations against Hamas terrorist 
cells in the West Bank. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that, three years after the Second 
Lebanon War, the army is preparing border communities for a new 
scenario Q an infiltration and ensuing shootout. 
 
Yediot ran a lengthy feature on U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East 
Peace George Mitchell.  Makor Rishon-Hatzofe hints that Mitchell may 
have personal business interests in the PA via the Middle East 
Investment Initiative. 
 
Makor Rishon-Hatzofe quoted Dani Dayan, Chairman of the Yesha 
Council of Jewish Settlements in the Territories, as saying that the 
agreement with the U.S. on a construction freeze in the settlements 
is an illusion.  The daily said that the council fears new Israeli 
concessions on the construction issue. 
 
Maariv reported that yesterday Egyptian authorities arrested 25 
people suspected of planning a terrorist attack on the Suez Canal. 
Egyptian officials were quoted as saying that the group is linked to 
elements in Gaza. 
 
HaQaretz reported that the Judge Advocate General, Brig. Gen. 
Avichai Mandelblit, told the human rights group B'Tselem yesterday 
that the army does not classify .22 caliber bullets as suitable for 
dispersing demonstrators.  According to B'Tselem, the use of 
.22-caliber bullets resulted in the death of at least two unarmed 
Palestinians. 
 
HaQaretz reported that four Jews -- members of the Jewish Defense 
League -- were arrested in Paris on Wednesday on suspicion of 
vandalizing a pro-Palestinian bookshop.  The Jerusalem Post reported 
that UK Jews and Muslims are increasingly concerned over possible 
terror by neo-Nazis. 
 
Yediot ran a feature about American Rabbi Sam Gordon, who supported 
Barack Obama during the presidential campaign. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that Police Cmdr. Uri Bar-Lev will 
travel to the U.S. in August to take up his new position as the 
Israel Police and Internal Security Attache in Washington.  Bar-Lev 
plans to use his office to further Israeli-American cooperation on 
intelligence, terrorism, drug smuggling, and organized crime, and to 
bolster IsraelQs image in the U.S.  Yediot reported that yesterday 
Yaniv Haziza, a senior member of Yitzhak AbergilQs criminal 
organization, was extradited to the U.S.  About five years ago, he 
was indicted in a Californian court on Ecstasy-related charges. 
 
------------ 
¶1.  Mideast: 
------------ 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
¶I.  "Does He, or DoesnQt He?" 
Diplomatic correspondent Aluf Benn wrote in the independent, 
left-leaning Ha'aretz (7/10): QNetanyahu's rivals, and foremost 
among them opposition head and Kadima Knesset Member Tzipi Livni, 
are convinced that, although the Prime Minister is saying Qtwo 
states,Q he doesn't mean it.... Nevertheless, Netanyahu cannot 
retract his Qtwo states for two peoples.Q  And he has a clear 
political interest in following this path, which has taken him from 
the position of extreme rightist during the election campaign to 
that of a national leader at the heart of the consensus.  QHe has 
gone from being QBibi 50 percentQ to QBibi 70 percent,QQ an American 
observer, who is savvy about Israeli politics, commented this week. 
In the Bar-Ilan speech, Netanyahu talked about the security 
guarantees he will request of the international community, 
particularly from the United States.  Then he explained that he 
didn't mean the deployment of American soldiers in Nablus and Jenin, 
but rather diplomatic guarantees.  It has been clarified that the 
Prime Minister has adopted the Qeight-point documentQ that his 
predecessor Ehud Olmert presented to the Bush administration.  The 
points themselves are quite trivial: total demilitarization of the 
Palestinian state, foreign observers on the border with Jordan, the 
Rafah border crossing under European supervision, Israeli control of 
the air space and the assignment of military radio frequencies. 
Barak raised demands like those at Camp David nine years ago; Olmert 
rephrased them and according to his people obtained American 
agreement to them.  Netanyahu wants to get those guarantees from 
Barack Obama in writing, so as to ensure that Israel will enjoy 
international legitimacy for its security concerns regarding the 
establishment of the Palestinian state.  If Netanyahu adopts the 
security provisions in the permanent status agreements that Barak 
and Olmert spoke about at Camp David and Annapolis respectively he 
will not be able to shake off their other provisions -- first and 
foremost the crucial maximum withdrawal from the West Bank and the 
evacuation of most of the settlements.  He, after all, invented the 
slogan, QThe more they give, the more they'll get.Q  Anyone who 
wants to get security guarantees will have to give territory.  A lot 
of territory. 
 
II.  "Give Substance to the Vision" 
 
Editor-in-Chief David Horovitz wrote on page one of the 
conservative, independent Jerusalem Post (7/10): QLike it or not -- 
and opinion polls carried recently by The Jerusalem Post strongly 
suggest the latter -- the worldQs only superpower appears to have 
decided that IsraelQs best interests require it to freeze 
construction beyond the Green Line.... For all that Netanyahu is 
today veritably extolling the virtues of the two-state vision he had 
so long resisted, for all the pressures he is now beginning to feel 
from within his own party, from all the precariousness of the 
current relative stability in the West Bank and the inconvenient 
truth that a robust terrorist organization rules Gaza, the Obama 
administration seems bent on what it sees as saving Israel from 
itself.... It seems convinced it can create a climate via Israeli 
concessions in which true Palestinian compromise and wider Arab 
reconciliation will flourish.  So if, as he now declares, the Prime 
Minister has a vision, let him urgently transform its sketched 
parameters into substance.  If, as he now claims, he can drive a 
better bargain than his predecessors, let him move beyond the 
rhetoric.... For if we donQt make up our minds, if the Prime 
Minister doesnQt make up his mind, the signs are multiplying that 
others are bent on making our minds up for us.  And while we may be 
untenably confused and conflicted, they may be dangerously 
ignorant. 
 
III.  "In the Footsteps of Sam LewisQs Suck-Ups" 
 
Columnist Sarah Honig wrote in The Jerusalem Post (7/10): QItQs 
doubtful any other state anywhere would be treated with similar 
disrespect, not by inimical leaders like Obama, but even by 
emissaries like George Mitchell.  Ours is to do their bidding even 
at our palpable peril.  The more Netanyahu delays forthrightly 
defying such international chutzpa, the more he invites it.  There 
are times when seemly circumspection is contraindicated.  Begin by 
now would have called the American ambassador to order and sent an 
unequivocal message to said ambassadorQs boss, even at the risk of 
local sycophants to brownnose the latter-day [U.S. ambassador] 
Samuel Lewis. 
 
--------- 
¶2.  Iran: 
--------- 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
"Buds of Sobering Up in Washington" 
 
Columnist Uri Heitner wrote in the nationalist, Orthodox Makor 
Rishon-Hatzofe (7/10): QOne should hope that the latest events in 
Iran and North Korea will drop a penny with Obama.  He is perhaps 
starting to understand that appeasement vis-a-vis evil will not 
 
bring about peace in our time, the same way ChamberlainQs policy 
towards Hitler did not do so, but led to the harshest war of all. 
Obama is perhaps starting to sober up and to understand that in 
order to create a better world, you must fight evil and defeat it. 
 
CUNNINGHAM