VZCZCXRO5229
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #1437/01 1831545
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 021545Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2429
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001437 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV IS
SUBJECT: MOFAZ CHALLENGING LIVNI WHILE NETANYAHU COURTS BOTH 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  Former Defense Minister and current 
Kadima Knesset Member (MK) Shaul Mofaz in recent weeks has 
been more vocal and direct in challenging party leader 
Tzipi Livni's leadership.  Mofaz's recent statements -- in 
which he questioned her ability to lead, faulted her for 
not joining the government, and laid out his own plan to 
advance the peace process -- have increased speculation 
that Kadima could eventually split, with some members 
joining Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition.  Netanyahu 
appears to be fostering such divisions in Kadima in an 
effort to keep his party's main rival down and also to 
provide himself with options should any of his current 
coalition partners withdraw from the government.  End 
Summary. 
 
MOFAZ STILL EYEING LEADERSHIP OF KADIMA 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Mofaz's leadership aspirations come as no 
surprise for a man who rose to the top echelon of Israel's 
military before being named Defense Minister in his first 
political role.  He later served as Deputy PM and Minister 
of Transportation in Ehud Olmert's government.  Mofaz 
nearly achieved his goal of leading Kadima last September 
when he lost the leadership primary to Tzipi Livni by less 
than 500 votes, a loss that surely still stings.  Mofaz 
appears to have never fully mended ties with Livni, and has 
been an almost invisible number two in the party since last 
year's primary.  When he has commented publicly on Kadima 
strategies and tactics, he has largely avoided direct 
attacks against Livni, preferring instead to allow his 
audience to makes its own inferences.  His most consistent 
target for criticism has been his Livni's inability to form 
a government in late 2008 and her refusal to join 
Netanyahu's coalition. 
 
RAISING THE STAKES 
------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Mofaz in recent weeks has become more outspoken 
and direct in his criticism of Livni.  Israeli press 
reported on June 26 that Mofaz, who was hosting close 
associates in his home, said he cannot envision Livni as 
prime minister and that she had never accomplished anything 
meaningful in her political career.  The same week Mofaz in 
an interview said that Kadima must not miss the next 
opportunity to join the government, and stressed that party 
leaders -- clearly meaning Livni -- must put the interests 
of the state above those of the party.  Long known for his 
tough, security-focused attitude toward the Palestinians, 
Mofaz then tried to outflank Livni to the left by 
announcing his own plan for advancing the peace process, 
which would entail establishing a Palestinian state with 
temporary borders while conducting negotiations on security 
over a period of three years. 
 
SPLINTERING OF KADIMA? 
---------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Politicians and pundits have speculated whether 
Mofaz would split from his party and join the coalition, 
bringing with him at least several of his Kadima 
colleagues.  One factor that has discouraged Mofaz's 
defection is that there are no plum cabinet posts that 
Netanyahu could offer the former Defense and Transportation 
Minister.  Perhaps a more significant impediment has been a 
provision in Israel's Basic Law that makes it difficult to 
leave a party unless one-third of the faction splits off. 
The government is attempting to make such a split easier by 
promoting the so-called "Mofaz bill," which would allow a 
faction to split if it took with it seven seats.  Many 
commentators assess that Mofaz could meet such a modified 
threshold, but would have a difficult time luring the nine 
other MKs as would be required by current law.  The 
proposed legislation, which Mofaz has at least publicly 
distanced himself from, prompted an outcry from the 
opposition, which led to it being tabled temporarily.  We 
expect it to advance during the Knesset's winter session, 
which starts in October. 
 
A BOON FOR NETANYAHU? 
--------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Embassy contacts confirm press reports of 
periodic discussions between Kadima and Likud 
representatives regarding the possibility of Kadima joining 
the coalition.  We have also heard that President Peres is 
working behind the scenes to convince Livni to join 
Netanyahu's government.  The discussions benefit Netanyahu 
by keeping a channel open to a potential political savior 
should one or more of his fickle coalition partners decide 
 
TEL AVIV 00001437  002 OF 002 
 
 
to leave the government.  One scenario Israelis often 
mention is that Yisrael Beitenu could depart if Foreign 
Minister Avigdor Liberman is indicted on corruption 
charges.  In that event, meaningful cabinet positions would 
open up that could entice Mofaz to break away from Kadima 
or lead other Kadima MKs to put pressure on Livni to join 
the government.  In any case, the continuous talks, along 
with the efforts to pass the Mofaz bill, tend to help the 
prime minister sow disunity within his party's main rival 
Kadima by keeping unsettled the debate over whether to join 
the government. 
 
 
CUNNINGHAM