VZCZCXRO3192
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0066/01 1890128
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 080128Z JUL 09
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0433
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0198
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0421
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0443
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0065
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCAA/GEOLOGICAL SURVEY DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000066 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, INR/EAP, AND EB/ESC/IEC 
DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/P-42 
COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EPET EINV SENV ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: GOVERNMENT PLANS TO TAKE 
RESPONSIBILITY FOR MITIGATION, US HAZARD ADVISOR COMPLETES TERM 
 
REF: A. SURABAYA 48 AND PREVIOUS 
     ¶B. 2008 SURABAYA 132 (LAPINDO'S EMPTYING POCKETS) 
 
SURABAYA 00000066  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary:  Three years after the Sidoarjo Mudflow 
disaster began, the Indonesian government signaled an intent to 
take over responsibility for mitigation from Lapindo Brantas, 
citing Lapindo's financial difficulties. If it follows through, 
the Sidoarjo Mud Management Agency (BPLS) will expand its role 
to handle all infrastructure planning and mitigation efforts at 
the site.  The U.S. Mission's Geologic Hazards Advisor completed 
a six-month term with BPLS in Sidoarjo in June.  Future 
cooperation between the US Geological Survey and BPLS is in the 
planning stages.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) After a meeting between the Indonesian House of 
Representatives' Special Committee on Sidoarjo Mudflow 
Mitigation and BPLS officials, Committee Chair and Social 
Affairs Minister Bachtiar Chamsyah told local media that the 
Indonesian House of Representatives and BPLS will recommend that 
the government take over responsibility for mitigating the 
mudflow.  Under the proposed plan, Lapindo will complete its 
required cash compensation payments to victims covered under the 
2007 Presidential Decree, but withdraw altogether from 
mitigation operations on site. 
 
Key Issue: Reliable Funding 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Both Jakarta State Court and the Supreme Court ruled in 
November 2007 and April 2009 respectively that Lapindo is not 
liable in the disaster.  For its part, Lapindo continues to 
claim plunging stock prices reduce the availability of funds to 
finance mitigation efforts (reftel B).  Deterioration of key 
dikes has accelerated as the lack of funding has led to a 
decrease of available equipment, according to BPLS officials. 
BPLS began pushing for the government to take over financial 
responsibility 9 months ago when Lapindo's funding problems 
undermined the capabilities of all mitigation efforts at the mud 
flow site. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The division of labor between Lapindo and Indonesia's 
Ministry of Public Works is increasingly unclear as the disaster 
drags on.  For example, the central ring of dikes around the 
mudflow's epicenter, once Lapindo's area of responsibility by 
decree, sank completely in 2008, putting increased pressure on 
the outer dikes, which are the responsibility of the Ministry. 
Minister Bachtiar told reporters that Lapindo was spending 
roughly USD 200,000 per week to maintain the dikes, and could be 
forced to pay over USD 686 million if a single dike collapses. 
 
A Matter of Time... 
------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) While most of the original victims have been relocated, 
conditions at the site continue to deteriorate and threaten 
nearby communities and infrastructure.  Subsidence now forces 
the mud to flow north, complicating efforts to pump mud south 
into the Porong River.  A system of dikes inside the main 
containment have subsided below the mudflow surface.  Now, a 
single dike separates the mud from the main north-south artery 
and railroad linking Surabaya's port with factories farther 
east.  The May 2006 surface is now estimated to be nearly 300 
meters or roughly 100 stories below ground.  Subsidence 
continues to force geysers and a mix of noxious and flammable 
gasses up into villages several kilometers from the site.  With 
the mud erupting at a rate of 60-100,000 cubic meters/day, 
experts believe it is only a matter of time before the road, 
railroad, and surrounding villages are submerged.  New 
infrastructure corridors have been indentified to replace those 
damaged or destroyed by the mud, but work has been sporadic. 
 
USG Assistance Efforts 
---------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The US Mission's Geologic Hazard Advisor completed a 
six-month term at BPLS in June.  Working with Indonesian 
geologists on site, the advisor assisted BPLS with hazard 
mapping in order to help keep pace with infrastructure planning 
 
SURABAYA 00000066  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
and relocation.  The U.S. Geologic Survey is assessing proposals 
to expand current cooperation with Indonesia's Center for 
Volcanology and Disaster Mitigation (CVGHM) by supplying 
seismographs to CVGHM to monitor underground activity near the 
mud, as part of its ongoing Volcano Disaster Assistance Program 
(VDAP). 
MCCLELLAND