VZCZCXRO5905
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK
RUEHYG
DE RUEHVJ #0895/01 2051358
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 241358Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0560
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 000895 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR/SCE (FOOKS); NSC FOR HELGERSON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIAKS ATTEMPT TO BLOCK THE WORK OF THE RS 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  In response to a recent decision by the 
Republika Srpska (RS) Constitutional Court, Bosniak leaders 
in the RS announced on July 14 that the Bosniak Caucus in the 
RS Council of Peoples (RS CoP) will attempt to block all laws 
passed by the RS National Assembly (RSNA) by boycotting 
sessions of the Council of Peoples, one of the two Houses of 
the RSNA.  Serbs have blasted this move, calling it illegal. 
The first piece of legislation that might be affected will be 
the rebalance of the RS's 2009 budget, which is a condition 
for receiving International Monetary Fund (IMF) funds.  It is 
not clear yet whether the RSNA will be paralyzed by this 
boycott or whether Serb parties will be able to ignore the 
boycott and implement legislation without Bosniak 
participation in the Council of Peoples.  Either way, this 
controversy is already exacerbating political tensions in the 
RS and Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) as a whole.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
BOSNIAKS THREATEN TO BLOCK RSNA 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Adil Osmanovic (an ethnic Bosniak), one of the two 
Republika Srpska (RS) Vice Presidents and a Vice President in 
Sulejman Tihic's Party of Democratic Action (SDA), announced 
on July 14 that the Bosniak Caucus in the RS Council of 
Peoples (RS CoP) will "block" all laws passed by the RS 
National Assembly (RSNA) by boycotting CoP sessions.  It is 
possible that this move could prevent any law passed by the 
RSNA from going into effect, because the CoP is mandated to 
review all laws passed by the RSNA to determine whether the 
laws impinge on a "Vital National Interest" of one of the 
constituent peoples.  Without Bosniak participation, the CoP 
might lack a quorum to fulfill this function.  According to 
Osmanovic, this blockade will continue until the RS 
Constitutional Court (RS CC) reverses its recent ruling 
upholding the RSNA's decision to remove the prefix "Bosanski" 
from the names of two towns in the RS.  Additionally, 
according to Osmanovic, the Bosniaks will demand that the 
Constitutional Court change the voting procedures in its book 
of rules, "to prevent further outvoting of Bosniaks." 
Osmanovic said that under the current procedures, the RS CC 
"commits political violence against Bosniaks." 
 
SERBS CALL FOR ABOLISHMENT OF CoP 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Serbs were quick to condemn the move.  RS Prime 
Minister Milorad Dodik said that "there is one way to resolve 
this matter: Dayton did not foresee an RS CoP, so we will see 
if the CoP continues to exist."  Serb Democratic Party (SDS) 
President Mladen Bosic openly called for the abolishment of 
the RS CoP, adding that the RS CoP was "imposed by 
internationals."  Mladen Ivanic, President of the Party of 
Democratic Progress (PDP), announced that the RSNA "should 
ignore the blockade and continue to enact laws despite it." 
He asked, "if they (Bosniaks) do not respect the 
Constitution, why should we respect them?"  RS President 
Rajko Kuzmanovic, a close ally of  Dodik, said that the 
Bosniaks' decision "has no basis in the RS Constitution or in 
the RS CoP book of rules," and he called on Bosniaks to 
"reassess their position."  Additionally, Serbs scoffed at 
Bosniak claims that they are being outvoted in the RS CC, 
claiming that the same thing happens to Serbs regularly in 
the state-level Constitutional Court.  Moreover, the Serb 
Caucus, as well as the Caucus of the "Others" in the RS CoP, 
expressed concern that the Bosniaks' initiative could 
paralyze RS institutions and jeopardize the recently-signed 
standby arrangement with the International Monetary Fund 
(IMF) (Ref B). 
 
 
HOW THE BLOCKADE WOULD WORK, PROCEDURALLY 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Perica Rajcevic, RSNA Speaker Igor Radojicic's Chief 
of Staff and an MP in the RSNA, told us that after the RSNA 
passes a law, RSNA officials take several days to prepare the 
final document for forwarding to the RS CoP.  Rajcevic said 
that the RSNA would probably forward the rebalance of the RS 
budget to the RS CoP around July 22.  He explained that from 
the time the RS CoP stamps the documents as received, it has 
seven days in which to review them and to raise a "vital 
national interest (VNI)" complaint.  He said that the 
date-stamp is an administrative matter, and the boycott will 
not affect it. 
 
 
SARAJEVO 00000895  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Zeljko Mirjanic, Caucus Head of Dodik's Alliance of 
Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), told us on July 15 that 
if the RS CoP does not raise VNI within seven days, then the 
measure will go to the RS President and be published in the 
RS Official Gazette, thereby going into effect.  He said that 
if the Bosniaks do not go to work, and no one else raises 
VNI, then the measures should go into effect.  Politically, 
however, Mirjanic admitted that it is not so simple.  He said 
that if the RSNA ignores the boycott, then there could be 
problems later on.  Mirjanic said that he expects the Central 
Election Commission (CEC) or the High Representative (HR) to 
"take away the mandates of MPs who refuse to do their jobs." 
 
WILL THE BLOCKADE IN FACT CRIPPLE THE RSNA? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Constitutional law scholar and Deputy Speaker of 
the RS CoP Miroslav Mikes reportedly stated that if the 
Bosniak Caucus proceeds with this initiative, it would 
essentially remove itself from the legislative process, and 
the RSNA could continue to function without it.  However, 
Radojicic has said that the Bosniaks can prevent legislation 
from going into force.  For example, he said that the 
rebalance of the RS budget, which the RSNA adopted on July 
15, cannot go into effect "if the RS CoP does not carry out 
its role in the process."  On the other hand, he continues to 
insist that the RS will "find a legal way to resolve this 
issue," adding that, "if they do not want to do their job, 
then we will find a way to de-block this."  Rajcevic told us 
on July 17 that if the Bosniak Caucus boycotts the work of 
the RS CoP, then Radojicic plans to interpret their silence 
as consent.  (Note: The first law that the RSNA passed since 
the Bosniaks announced their blockade was the rebalance of 
the RS 2009 budget, to bring it into compliance with the IMF 
conditions for release of additional standby fund loan funds. 
 The impasse should come to a head sometime around July 29, 
when the seven-day deadline for the RS CoP to review that law 
expires.  This will be the test case for the Bosniak blockade 
and Radojicic's proposed response.  End Note.) 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) It is not clear how the legal and political issues 
raised by this action of the Bosniak caucus will be resolved. 
   Serbs appear inclined to ignore the CoP boycott and wait 
to see if this leads to legal challenges of the legislation 
passed by the RSNA.   Serbs do seem to realize, however, that 
ignoring the boycott could impart at least the appearance of 
impropriety.  Serbs may be able to argue that Bosniaks, in 
using the tactics of a boycott, are undermining their own 
complaints that Serbs blockade the work of BiH State-level 
institutions.  By resorting to boycott and blockade to try to 
reverse precedents for RS Constitutional Court practice that 
have gone unchallenged for years, the Bosniaks appear to be 
playing with a weak political hand.  The outcome regarding 
the IMF law will help determine whether this tactic can be an 
effective political challenge to the RS Constitutional Court 
decision. 
ENGLISH