VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSJ #0602/01 1982159
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 172159Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1043
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN JOSE 000602 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA, WHA/CEN AND USOAS; SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2019 
TAGS: AEMR ASEC CASC KFLO MARR AMGT PGOV PINR KDEM
CS, HO 
SUBJECT: TFHO1: HONDURAS TALKS ROUND TWO: PREVIEW OF ARIAS 
HOSTED DIALOGUE 
 
REF: A. SAN JOSE 587 
     ¶B. TEGUCIGALPA 600 AND OTHERS 
     ¶C. TEGUCIGALPA 610 
 
Classified By: CDA Peter M. Brennan for reason 1.4 (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On Saturday, July 18, President Arias will 
host the second round of talks to mediate an acceptable 
solution to end the political crisis in Honduras.  The first 
round of talks took place on July 9-10 with little progress 
made (Ref A).  Minister of the Presidency, Rodrigo Arias, 
relayed to us on July 15 that Arturo Corrales of Micheletti's 
delegation told him that their delegation was looking at a 
variety of possible resolutions, including putting a third 
party in the presidency.  Arias was not so certain that 
Zelaya's delegation was as ready to negotiate due to recent 
ratcheted-up rhetoric including the "right to insurrection" 
coming from Zelaya's team (Ref B).  On July 17, MFA Foreign 
Policy Director Alejandro Solano relayed to us a possible 
agenda for the talks (para three below). 
 
¶2. (U) Although there has not been an arrest warrant issued 
for Micheletti in Costa Rica, two Costa Rican legislators 
petitioned for one in case Micheletti were to land in Costa 
Rica.  However, according to a radio address from President 
Arias on July 16, neither Zelaya nor Micheletti would be 
attending this weekend's talks.  Delegations are listed at 
paragraphs nine and ten below.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶3. (C) This weekend, July 18-19, will mark the second round 
of talks to address the Honduran political crisis that began 
on June 28.  Minister Arias (President Arias' brother) told 
us on July 15 that he had spoken with and possibly detected a 
changed, slightly more forthcoming attitude from Micheletti 
delegation member Arturo Corrales.  Arias was not sure if 
this change in attitude was only from Corrales or perhaps was 
reflective of a change on the part of Micheletti's team in 
general.  Based on information from Minister Arias and what 
MFA Solano told us July 17 (similar to Ref C), here is a 
preview of the agenda that President Arias will evidently use 
for this weekend's talks: 
 
 -- How Zelaya could return to Honduras; 
 -- Composition of any type of national unity government 
until the November elections; 
 -- Political amnesty for all involved in this confrontation 
(however, not amnesty for criminal acts); 
 -- Discuss possibility of removing top military leadership 
to ease transition for a national unity government; and 
 -- Composition of possible verification commission to ensure 
any agreement is being honored. 
 
¶4. (C) Arias and subsequently FM Bruno Stagno told CDA 
Brennan they felt that Corrales (and the Micheletti team in 
general) was approaching this seriously and in good faith, 
and felt that this laid the right foundation for this 
weekend's discussions.  On the other hand, Arias was not as 
sure about the Zelaya team with all the recent saber-rattling 
rhetoric from Guatemala and other locations over the past few 
days.  He was confident, however, that in the end they would 
attend the talks.  MFA Solano relayed to us that apparently 
Zelaya had agreed (in a phonecall to President Arias July 16) 
not to call for a national referendum, if reinstated. 
 
¶5. (C) Arias indicated that the noise and maneuvering at the 
OAS level had not been helpful, but thought that if it could 
be kept in check for the moment and progress could be made 
this weekend, that might quiet those elements down.  Arias 
recognized that the negotiations would be tough, particularly 
due to the Zelaya team's (and cohorts) antics. 
 
¶6. (C) CDA Brennan conveyed to Arias Ambassador Llorens' idea 
of trying to heal/reconcile some of the splintered old 
Liberal elements via Flores, Corrales and others in order to 
reach an agreement.  Arias agreed and said that they were 
working on that angle as well. 
 
¶7. (C) On July 15, Alberto Salom (head of Citizen's Action 
Party-PAC) and Jose Merino (from Frente Amplio party), 
petitioned the prosecutor's office to arrest Micheletti if he 
came to Costa Rica for the talks.  According to our sources 
within the judicial powers, however, no arrest warrant has 
been issued.  Otton Solis, the PAC's 2010 presidential 
candidate, quickly disavowed any party support for Salom's 
petition and declared his support for dialogue to resolve the 
Honduran crisis.  According to the press on July 17, Costa 
 
Rican Attorney General Francisco Dall'Anese apparently 
ordered all police forces not to detain Micheletti if he were 
to enter the country. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) As FM Bruno Stagno told us on July 16, they are 
"cautiously optimistic" about the talks this weekend based 
upon their preliminary discussions with Micheletti's staff 
and some limited contact with Zelaya's team.  The current 
make-up of the Zelaya team (without the more radical Patricia 
Rodas) could also indicate a willingness to come to a 
solution.  However, late additions such as Rodas could occur 
and might further complicate the dialogue, though the Costa 
Rican MFA has assured us that Rodas will not be coming this 
weekend.  Although the petition of an arrest warrant for 
Micheletti does not seem to have any legs and AG Dall'Anese's 
order not to arrest him seems legitimate, it is nonetheless a 
bit worrisome given Dall'Anese's sympathetic political 
tendencies and his attraction to the limelight. 
 
 
¶9. (U) Zelaya's delegation: 
 
 -- Aristides Mejia, Vice President and former Minister of 
Defense; 
 -- Milton Jimenez, former Foreign Minister; and 
 -- Enrique Flores Lanza, Secretary of the Presidency. 
 
¶10. (U) Micheletti's delegation: 
 
 -- Carlos Lopez, former Foreign Minister; 
 -- Arturo Corrales, president of the Unity and Innovation 
Party (PINU); 
 -- Mauricio Villeda, Vice-Presidential candidate for the 
Liberal party; and 
 -- Vilma Cecilia Morales, former president of the Supreme 
Court of Justice. 
WILSON