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INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000877 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO IT AF


SUBJECT: ITALY: MAKING POLITICAL HAY ABOUT ISAF MISSION 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Elizabeth Dibble.  Reasons 1.4 (b) and 
 (d). 
 
¶1.  C)Summary: Lega Nord Leader Bossi grabbed an opportunity 
afforded by what was supposed to be a routine vote to call 
for a political level discussion on the ISAF mission in 
Afghanistan and Italy's continued involvement.  Citing the 
high cost of the mission and increasing NATO casualties, 
Bossi assessed that the objectives of the mission - bringing 
democracy and prosperity to Afghanistan - were probably 
unachievable even with greater sacrifices.  Bossi's surprise 
intervention was quickly echoed by the center-left Italy of 
Values (IdV) party, with its parliamentary group leader 
calling for a review of Italy's approach after Afghanistan's 
August 20 elections. Defense Minister LaRussa, backed by the 
Prime Minister, reaffirmed Italy's commitment to the ISAF 
mission as part of the GOI's global strategy to combat 
terrorism.  Bossi's timing is largely driven by domestic 
political calculus - the need to demonstrate independence 
from Berlusconi and greater Lega Nord clout while not 
rupturing the coalition before March 2010 regional elections. 
 But the discussion does tap into broad unease and the 
apparent spreading violence in Afghanistan, recent Italian 
casualties, and the expectation that there will be more.  End 
Summary. 
 
Bossi: Time to Review ISAF Mission 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. SBU) Northern League President Umberto Bossi took 
advantage of what was supposed to be a appropriations vote 
for Italy's overseas missions to launch a broad debate on the 
utility and future of Italian military participation, 
particularly in Afghanistan.  The bill - which goes to a vote 
on July 30 or 31 and is expected to pass - simply provides 
the resources to follow through on the Overseas Mission 
decree that was unanimously endorsed by the Chamber of 
Deputies on July 23. 
 
¶3. SBU)In comments on July 25, Bossi noted that in light of 
the rising casualties, increasing violence, and escalating 
costs, Italy should consider bringing its troops home, not 
just from Afghanistan but from a number of overseas missions, 
including KFOR and UNIFIL.  He also questioned whether the 
objectives of bringing democracy and economic development to 
Afghanistan were realistic. Bossi's blunt call was picked up 
across the aisle by the leftist Italy of Values (IdV) party 
headed by Antonio DiPietro who said that he opposed ""moving 
from defending the local population to waging war ... 
especially when good intentions have crumbled.""  After an 
outcry from within the government, and from PdL and most 
opposition parties, both Lega and the IdV ""refined"" their 
position, noting that they intended to support the funding 
legislation but that the changing nature of the situation on 
the ground in Afghanistan, including the Kabul government's 
failure to deliver and the increased Taliban threat to 
Italian and international forces argued for a political 
discussion of the appropriate level of Italian engagement. 
Noting a need to reassess after ""eight years of war,"" IdV 
group leader Massimo Donadi called for a broader political 
discussion after Afghanistan's August 20 elections. 
 
LaRussa: Italy Committed in Afghanistan 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. SBU) Defense Minister LaRussa strongly rebutted the 
skepticism about the mission, calling the ISAF mission 
""unrenounceable and indispensable."" In his July 28 briefing 
to the Chamber of Deputies, he underscored that the mission 
had not changed - that the ISAF presence was necessary for 
reconstruction and democratization to take hold - and that 
Italy would stay until the job was done.  He also detailed 
short term plans to enhance the effectiveness of the Italian 
effort.  In addition to 400 troops for election security and 
100 Carabienieri to train Afghan police, Italy plans to add 
two Mangusta helicopters to the six already there, increase 
the number of Predators, and substitute Linces with more 
secure Freccia armored vehicles.  LaRussa reiterated his 
previous statements that he was lifting restrictions on 
Italy's Tornado aircraft and that they would be allowed to 
use their cannons to provide close air support as needed. 
Prime Minister Berlusconi echoed LaRussa's comments, noting 
that Italy had no intention 
of changing its position on Afghanistan and chiding Bossi, 
noting that his party had unanimously supported the 
authorization for the missions in a July 23 vote. In comments 
to PdL parliamentarians on July 29, Berlusconi was more 
conciliatory, telling them that it would be appropriate to 
discuss Italy's long-term ""exit stretagy"" after the Afghan 
Presidential vote, but he stressed ""only in coordination with 
our partners."" 
 
 
ROME 00000877  002 OF 002 
 
 
Finite Forces, Finite Money 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5. C) Italy maintains three deployments of over 2,000 
soldiers apiece -- UNIFIL, KFOR, and ISAF  -- and is trying 
to find new forces in a tight manpower and budgetary 
environment.  The GOI has pushed for a gradual draw down of 
forces in Kosovo next year which will help its bottom line 
and may free up troops for Afghanistan.  Italy's current 
command of the UNIFIL operation is a major factor in the size 
of its contribution.  MOD LaRussa's foreign policy advisor, 
Alessandro Ruben, told us July 28 that if Italy hands over 
command of UNIFIL to Spain next year, it expects to cut its 
forces as well (septel).  Ruben also stressed that Bossi -- 
who has a visceral dislike for foreign deployments -- is 
making common cause with Italy's powerful and 
independent-minded Finance Minister Tremonti who also thinks 
they are a bad deal for Italy's core interests. By calling 
for a cost-benefit analysis of its overseas obligations, 
Bossi is serving notice of Lega's determination to get its 
share of financing for projects it cares more deeply about, 
including fiscal federalism and immigration issues. 
 
Afghanistan: Creeping Doubt 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6. C) Bossi and DiPietro are tapping into a growing Italian 
unease about the course of the conflict in Afghanistan. 
Since the spring, Italian forces appear to have taken on a 
more aggressive posture and sought engagements with Taliban 
forces in RC-West but have also come under more regular 
attack.  The Italian press has also extensively covered the 
U.S. build up, the increases in Taliban strikes, and the 
mounting NATO casualties. The death of a paratrooper on July 
14, the first combat death since Berlusconi returned to 
office in the Spring of 2008, has brought the issue to the 
forefront of discussions.  With Italian forces now regularly 
engaged in firefights - extensively covered in the press and 
commented upon by the government - the image of ISAF as 
primarily a peacekeeping mission is eroding. The U.S. 
build-up, our focus on the degrading situation in Pakistan, 
and the launching of large new operations has fueled an image 
of a situation slipping out of control. Both Bossi and 
DiPietro seized on President Obama's comments about working 
towards an ""exit strategy"" as a pretext to propose a rush to 
the door. FM Frattini's Chief of Staff, Alain Economides told 
Charge July 29 that ""we don't have a problem for now."" 
However, he and Ruben noted that the public spin could veer 
sharply. 
 
Posturing for Regional Elections 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  C) Comment: The timing of Bossi's outburst has far more 
to do with domestic political calculation. With the G8 and 
European elections now over, the Northern League and 
Berlusconi's PdL are in open competition for the same voters 
in the March 2010 regional elections.  Coming off a very 
strong showing in the European Parliament elections, Bossi is 
both demonstrating his independence from Berlusconi and is 
also seeking greater leverage within the current coalition. 
While Afghanistan is a non-issue for Lega's core supporters, 
Bossi is actively trying to lure working class voters who 
have in the past backed the flailing leftist parties across 
the divide.  Taking an anti-militarist stance burnishes his 
appeal.  Most of Italy's regional president posts are up for 
election next Spring and Bossi is keen to ensure that Lega 
Nord has the edge in the competition for the key posts 
against its PdL coalition partner.  Reminding Berlusconi, 
with whom he works very well, of his growing relative power 
aids that effort. End Comment. 
 
 
DIBBLE 
"