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RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHRO #0847/01 2041555
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 231555Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2431
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHFL/AMCONSUL FLORENCE 3725
RUEHMIL/AMCONSUL MILAN 0155
RUEHNP/AMCONSUL NAPLES 3929

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000847 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2039 
TAGS: PGOV PREL IT
SUBJECT: AFTER SUCCESSFUL G8, BERLUSCONI BREATHES SIGH OF 
RELIEF 
 
REF: A. REF A: ROME 761 
     ¶B. REF B: ROME 677 
 
Classified By: CDA Elizabeth Dibble for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
Summary 
- - - - 
¶1. (C//NF) After months of charges of sex and financial 
scandals, Prime Minister Berlusconi emerged from the G8 
summit in L'Aquila strengthened. No further serious 
allegations or charges from the judiciary emerged; the event 
went off without a significant logistical hitch; and to his 
domestic audience, Berlusconi was able to define himself as a 
world leader who counts. The worst has now passed for 
Berlusconi. He now will have to repair his somewhat battered 
image, and reinstill confidence among the center right. While 
his government is somewhat weaker than it was six months ago, 
there is no serious threat to his administration from within 
the center right or from the deeply balkanized center left. 
For better or worse, Berlusconi will be Italy's leader for 
the foreseeable future. End Summary. 
 
Berlusconi: ""Very Happy"" with the G8 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶2. (C//NF) In the days before the G8, Berlusconi loyalists 
told us they feared dramatic new charges against the Prime 
Minister, while former center left Prime Minister Massimo 
D'Alema promised there would be new damaging revelations. 
(Ref: A) However, all remained calm and Italian domestic 
politics were calm as the G8 took place, perhaps because 
President Napolitano called for exactly this in the interests 
of the nation. After the G8, even center-left commentators 
and contacts had to grudgingly accept that it was a success 
for Berlusconi. Berlusconi insiders in the Prime Minister's 
People of Liberty party told us that Berlusconi was ""very 
happy"" with the G8, and while he finds the repeated 
allegations about his personal life annoying, he does not 
regard them as a serious political threat. 
 
¶3. (C//NF)) Some additional drips and drabs of alleged 
scandals have emerged against Berlusconi, including an 
audiotape of a prostitute who claims to have had a 
relationship with Berlusconi and a male voice alleged to be 
that of the Prime Minister. However, this further evidence is 
unlikely to do much further damage to Berlusconi, barring a 
dramatic new revelation. In fact, for many Italians, 
Berlusconi has successfully painted himself as a victim of 
the maneuvers of the left. He recently acknowledged ""I am no 
saint"" in relationships with women, adding that he was like 
any other man. Political polling in Italy is notoriously 
unreliable, and the gulf between what Berlusconi claims as 
his approval rating (68 percent) and what the leading critic 
among the press--La Repubblica newspaper--claims (49 percent) 
is quite wide. The fact that even Berlusconi's harshest 
critic acknowledges that half of the country still supports 
the Prime Minister indicates that the damage to Berlusconi's 
image at home has been much more limited than to his image 
abroad. 
 
Government Stable, but a Reinvigorated Image Still Needed 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶4. (C//NF) Berlusconi faces no serious challenger from within 
his center-right coalition or from the main opposition 
Democratic Party (PD), which has just begun a tortuous, 
months-long debate over who will be its next leader. Former 
PD leader Walter Veltroni told us that the PD needs to find a 
way to be competitive in four or five years, acknowledging 
that for the foreseeable future it did not present a serious 
alternative to Berlusconi. While for the medium term 
Berlusconi is the unquestionable leader of the center right, 
some of the shine has come off in part because of these 
alleged scandals. (Ref B) Center-right journalist Giancarlo 
Loquenzi told us that Berlusconi's longstanding aim of 
becoming President of the Republic is now out of reach, and 
Berlusconi must repair his image to maintain public trust. 
Loquenzi suggested that remarrying and leading a quieter 
private life would be the best avenue. A top PDL 
parliamentary aide told us that no one is challenging 
Berlusconi within PDL, but PDL politicians also understand 
that because of Berlusconi, Italy has a declining reputation 
abroad, and particularly in the European Union, where Italy 
struggles to obtain top posts. 
 
¶5. (C//NF) Berlusconi's strength as a politican has been in 
knowing how to respond to the electorate, and demonstrating 
quick and effective action on discreet problems such as the 
Naples trash crisis and the Abruzzo earthquake. His weakness 
has been in determining a long-term political strategy or 
 tackling the country's most serious problems. Given this 
background, Berlusconi is likely to grab headlines at some 
point this autumn in attempt to reinspire his electorate. 
Contacts tell us that the most likely scenario would be a 
cabinet shakeup to bring in some new faces. Some of the 
changes being discussed are at the Foreign Ministry and the 
Ministry of Finance. Other possibilities include changes 
among the leaders in PDL. 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
¶6. (C//NF) Berlusconi's government remains strong, with no 
serious internal or external challenger. Berlusconi survived 
the months of accusations of scandals without the Italian 
public concluding that there was irrefutable evidence of 
wrongdoing. As one of his senior advisers told us, Berlusconi 
may be ""prone to gaffes and be a bit of a clown""; but he 
continues to have his finger on the pulse of the Italian 
electorate. He added that he and his inner circle also take 
comfort in the fact that he still faces no real opposition. 
 
¶7. (C//NF) The international press painted a caricature of 
Berlusconi that few political analysts in Italy recognized. 
Still, Berlusconi is somewhat weakened from the peak of his 
popularity in the fall of 2008, and part of this weakening is 
attributable to the weariness of some Italians--including 
center-right voters--of seeing images of Berlusconi or others 
at his residences frolicking with very young women. 

End Comment. 
DIBBLE 
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