VZCZCXRO5509
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHSA #1495/01 2051038
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241038Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9137
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 1408
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 7006
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 1118
RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 9374
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001495 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM ASEC SF PGOV
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICAN ACADEMICS ASSESS 2009 ELECTION; LOOK 
AHEAD 
 
PRETORIA 00001495  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (SBU)  South African scholars agree that the 2009 election 
was one of the country's most important elections and argue 
the character and results of the poll hold clues to the 
future.  At a seminar on July 21 to launch the newly 
published book, "Zunami: The 2009 South African Election," 
some of the country's leading thinkers began the process of 
understanding the outcome of the most recent poll and what it 
means for the future.  Academics argued the election has made 
the African National Congress (ANC) a tentative organization 
and the Democratic Alliance (DA) "too confident."  They 
postulated what emerged from the most recent election will 
have a significant impact on the 2011 local elections and 
beyond.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
South African Thinkers Look Back, Make Tentative Projections 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  South Africa's academic community is beginning to 
place the 2009 election into context while tentatively 
looking ahead to the 2011 local elections.  At a seminar on 
July 21 to launch a newly published book, some of the 
country's leading thinkers began the process of understanding 
the outcome of the most recent poll and what it means for the 
future.  University of Witswatersrand political scientist 
Daryl Glaser opened the seminar by saying that in many ways 
the 2009 election is the most important poll that South 
African has ever held.  He postulated that there have been 
"few benchmarks as meaningful to understanding democracy" as 
the most recent vote.  University of Witswatersrand 
sociologist Roger Southall, University of Witswatersrand 
political scientist Anthony Butler, University of Cape Town's 
Zwelethu Jolobe, South African Institute of International 
Affairs researcher Tseou Petlane, and Rhodes University 
professor Jane Duncan followed Glaser's address, exploring 
all aspects of the election. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Southall's most significant contribution was 
pointing out, as Colette Schulz-Herzenberg has noted, how the 
2009 election demonstrated clearly that voters are willing to 
vote for different parties at national, provincial, and local 
levels.  He said, "This trend will have huge implications for 
2011."  Butler followed Southall and argued the ANC will be 
forever changed by this election.  He noted the decision by 
some to break from the party to form the Congress of the 
People (COPE) did not change the ANC.  He elaborated that how 
the ANC elected to respond to the new organization changed 
the character of the party.  He said, "At first we saw COPE 
gain momentum through ANC's missteps.  Once the ANC in the 
final months before the election took the strategy of 
caution, quiet, and avoidance of missteps, COPE was 
weakened."  He argued that such a strategy has lingered past 
the election and has come to characterize the early days of 
the Jacob Zuma government.  Butler said, "For better or 
worse, what we have is a very tentative government -- one 
even more tentative than administrations of the past.  Where 
we need leadership, we have silence."  He argued the new 
power blocs within the ANC are unclear.  He noted, "The blocs 
are even unclear to ANC members themselves."  He finished his 
Qare even unclear to ANC members themselves."  He finished his 
remarks by saying that ahead of the local elections, one 
cannot ignore the fact that Zuma's popularity diminishes as 
one moves from East to West in the country.  Butler quipped, 
"In a few years more in Eastern Cape may tire from the 
leadership of the ANC." 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Butler provided a perfect introduction to Jolobe's 
remarks as the University of Cape Town lecturer opened by 
discussing the DA's performance in Western Cape.  Jolobe 
noted the DA is unlikely to face a real challenge from the 
ANC in Western Cape for years to come.  However, he said the 
DA has been too confident post-election.  He noted that such 
confidence led to Helen Zille appointing predominately white 
males to senior party positions and to "unfortunate" comments 
about Zuma.  Jolobe believes that the DA's confidence 
post-election has made it difficult for the party to look at 
hard issues such as race, party leadership, and the 
possibility of governing alliances.  He surmised the DA will 
grow in the short term -- winning significant seats in the 
 
PRETORIA 00001495  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
local elections and perhaps even 20 percent in the next 
national election -- but will not get bigger over the longer 
term.  He said, "There will be a cap, and then the party will 
be forced to pursue more coalitions."  Going forward, Jolobe 
foresees the DA being in a better electoral position than 
COPE. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Petlane argued, as many commentators have done 
post-election, that the 2009 election marked the end of 
"ideological parties."  He noted, "What we learned is that we 
are not Europe.  There will not be a Green Party to carry us 
forward or a party devoted only to a single community."  He 
said the election results showed clearly that parties like 
the Minority Front may endure but "are not the future of 
South African politics."  Duncan contended a reason for 
ideological parties fading in this election was the lack of 
depth by the media to look at "real issues and not just 
personalities."  She related that the "South African voter 
wants issues but rarely gets them highlighted." 
 
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Comment 
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¶6. (SBU)  There is no question the 2009 election was 
important.  However, it also will be important how political 
parties -- and the South African public -- evolve over the 
next two years.  The ANC's so-called tentativeness must end 
in order for voters to see improved service delivery and more 
effective administration from government departments.  The 
DA's "confidence" must become effective, diverse leadership 
that can tackle societal issues in Western Cape and 
Parliament.  Finally, COPE must seek ways to build momentum 
-- and unity -- in a way independent of ANC statements or 
missteps.  If the South African voter evolves at a faster 
pace than the political parties seeking to represent them, 
which may happen if the voting trends hold, the 2011 
elections may be the most important polls yet in determining 
this country's future. 
CONNERS