VZCZCXRO0612
OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #0595 2112113
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 302113Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9719
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS OTTAWA 000595 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR CA
SUBJECT: LEADERS BREAK SUMMER LULL WITH TOUGH TALK 
 
REF:  OTTAWA 569 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Federal Conservatives used a late July 
election training conference and a summer caucus meeting in Ottawa 
to sharpen their attack lines and spark a flurry of renewed election 
speculation in an otherwise somnolent political summer.  Liberal 
leader Michael Ignatieff also ratcheted up the rhetoric on 
Employment Insurance (E.I.) reform and a possible fall election, 
although polls confirm that no party has the edge in voter support. 
End summary. 
 
CONSERVATIVES GET INTO ELECTION SHAPE 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The Conservative Party of Canada organized an election 
training conference in Ottawa July 26-29 for MPs, election 
candidates, and their teams.  The sessions focused on modern 
outreach strategies that the Conservatives have pioneered in Canada 
and honed in the last two elections: use of social media; voter 
contact methods; fundraising; dealing with the media; effective use 
of direct mail; and, community outreach.  The session featured 
Conservative National Campaign Director Doug Finley (who directed 
the party's 2006 and 2008 winning campaigns), raising expectations 
that he may again head up the national campaign in the next 
election.  MPs followed the training conference with a half-day 
summer caucus meeting. 
 
THE PROTAGONISTS RE-EMERGE 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) After largely disappearing from public sight after the G8 
meetings in Italy (reftel), Prime Minister Stephen Harper resurfaced 
on July 29 at a tightly scripted appearance in a hardware store to 
highlight the time-limited federal home renovation tax credit in the 
2009 budget.  Separately, Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff 
also re-emerged publicly on July 28 and 29 from an intermittent 
"staycation" at his Ottawa residence.  Ignatieff explained that he 
had been spending the rainy days (July was the wettest month ever in 
recorded Ottawa history) developing an "ambitious policy agenda" to 
present "in the fall." 
 
¶4. (SBU) Ignatieff also ratcheted up rhetoric over E.I. reform, 
warning that "it's getting tougher and tougher" to work with the 
government on a new bipartisan panel, whose senior Conservative 
member, Human Resources Minister Diane Finley, publicly on July 29 
blasted the Liberals' proposal for a minimum national 360 hour 
threshold for eligibility for E.I. (which would yield up to a year 
of benefits after only nine weeks of work) as "academic fantasyland 
right now."  When asked whether he would move a non-confidence 
motion when Parliament returns and force a fall election, Ignatieff 
commented that it was "not an unreasonable extrapolation." 
Ignatieff underscored that the Liberals could be flexible on the 
number of hours before coverage, but insisted that he would not 
budge on the principle of a national standard of access to benefits 
across the country.  "Unemployment is surging," he noted "and we 
need a system that works for Canadians."  Statistics Canada reported 
that 778,700 people received E.I. benefits in May, up by 65,600 from 
April, and the highest since 1997. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The E.I. working group's report is due the week of 
September 28, followed three days later by a Liberal opposition day 
that Ignatieff could theoretically use to trigger a fall election, 
if the other two opposition parties cooperate.  At their recent 
caucus, Conservative MPs appeared more upbeat than in June, 
counseling caution, but were clearly cheered by signs that the 
economy may be poised to grow again. 
 
POLLS OFFER LITTLE COMFORT 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) An Angus Reid poll conducted July 27 to 28 indicated that, 
however much or little the Conservatives or Liberals may wish a new 
Qhowever much or little the Conservatives or Liberals may wish a new 
election, neither party yet has an advantage.  The poll put the 
Liberals marginally ahead nationally at 34 pct (up four pct from two 
weeks ago) to the Conservatives' 33 pct, a statistical dead heat, 
and within the narrow 2 to 3 point range in which the two major 
parties have been trading for months.  The economy remained 
Canadians' top concern.  The poll also indicated that, overall, more 
Canadians trust PM Harper to manage the economy than Ignatieff (41 
pct to 36 pct).  Ignatieff's momentum score has fallen five points 
since early July, while PM Harper's momentum is holding steady. 
BREESE