VZCZCXRO9426
OO RUEHDBU RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHPW RUEHQU RUEHSL RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #0544/01 1971845
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161845Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9667
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0281
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0995

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000544 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV AF CA
SUBJECT: CANADIANS AGAINST FUTURE AFGHAN ROLE 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Public opinion has turned "decisively" against 
Canada's military mission in Afghanistan, with more than 50 pct now 
opposing it, especially in the key electoral battleground provinces 
of Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia, as well as in Atlantic 
Canada.  A separate poll indicated that only 27 pct believe that 
Canadian troops should stay after the present mission ends in 2011, 
even in a non-combat role.  Although Afghanistan is not likely to be 
a ballot box issue in the next federal election, these polls 
underscore the political constraints on both the Conservatives and 
the opposition Liberals in crafting post-2011 policy toward 
Afghanistan, and help to explain the reluctance thus far of either 
party to discuss future commitments.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) Ipsos Reid conducted a poll of 1,001 people across Canada 
between June 29 and July 6 on current attitudes toward the Canada's 
Afghan mission.  EKOS Research Associates separately canvassed a 
larger sample of 2,713 respondents from July 8 to 14.  Both polls 
recorded increased support for the Canadian Forces (CF) generally 
(82 pct compared to 77 pct in 2008), especially in Quebec, where 
support for the CF jumped to 76 pct from 58 pct.  However, Ipsos 
Reid suggested that a majority of Canadians now believe that "we've 
fulfilled an obligation" and that the arrival of other [American] 
troops in Afghanistan means "that it is time to bring people home. . 
." 
 
A SLIDE IN SUPPORT 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (U) EKOS reported a "steady and radical transformation" of public 
attitudes to the CF's mission in Afghanistan since 2002, noting that 
a slim majority (54 pct) of respondents now oppose it, compared to 
34 pct who support it, along with 12 pct who are undecided.  The 
mission now has the support of only 1:3 Canadians (compared to more 
than 2:3 in 2002).  The strongest opposition is in Quebec (73 pct), 
Ontario (49 pct), British Columbia (49 pct), and Atlantic Canada (53 
pct).  Support is highest in Prime Minister Stephen Harper's home 
base of Alberta, at 42 pct, but 45 pct of Albertans now oppose it. 
Nationally, 60 pct of women strongly disapprove of the CF's mission, 
compared to 27 pct of women who believe that Canada should stay in 
Afghanistan. 
 
¶4. (U) Ipsos Reid reported that support nationally for the current 
CF mission remains steady at 48 pct (down from 50 pct in January 
2008), but that 52 pct of respondents now believe that Canada should 
withdraw all its troops when the mission ends in 2011.  Only 27 pct 
think that Canadian troops should remain after 2011, even in a 
non-combat role.  In contrast, in 2008, 37 pct of respondents had 
said that Canada should pull out all its troops after 2011, while 45 
pct had said that they should stay for non-combat-related duties, 
including training Afghan security forces.  Currently, only 14 pct 
favor extending the present mission (unchanged from 2008). 
 
¶5. (U) Conservative Party voters remain the staunchest supporters of 
Canada's mission in Afghanistan, at 51 pct, compared to 31 pct of 
Liberal Party supporters, 26 pct of Green Party voters, 20 pct of 
New Democratic Party (NDP) voters, and 11 pct of Bloc Quebecois 
supporters. 
 
NOT A BALLOT BOX ISSUE 
---------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) In spite of the drift of support away from the Afghan 
mission, both pollsters confirmed that Afghanistan is not "an 
especially heavy load" on the governing Conservatives.  Ipsos noted 
that the public essentially gave "the government its permission to 
Qthat the public essentially gave "the government its permission to 
continue" with the mission following the House of Commons' March 
2008 bipartisan motion to end the combat mission in 2011.  It was 
not a campaign issue in the October 2008 federal election. 
 
¶7.  (U)  The EKOS poll indicated that the two major parties remain 
locked together in overall popular support, with the Conservatives 
marginally ahead at 34.1 pct compared to 32.4 pct for the Liberals, 
although the Conservatives trail slightly in vote-rich Ontario, and 
are a distant third behind the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois in 
Quebec.  EKOS noted that Canadians appear "relatively content" with 
the direction of the country (55 pct) and of the government (49 
pct); only in Quebec did a majority believe that the government is 
heading in the wrong direction.  Even among Liberal supporters, 41 
pct believed that the Conservative government is heading in the 
right direction (compared to 48 pct in the wrong direction). 
However, EKOS argued that the current crop of parties and leaders 
still left voters "cold," suggesting that until Canadians see more 
vibrant political leadership, the political landscape is likely to 
remain "frozen." 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment:  Although Afghanistan is not likely to be a ballot 
box issue in the next federal election (perhaps as early as fall 
2009), the hardening of popular attitudes over the mission's end 
 
OTTAWA 00000544  002 OF 002 
 
 
date in 2011 and growing unwillingness to contemplate a Canadian 
role in Afghanistan post-2011 impose significant constraints on 
public policy planning.  As long as Canada's two main parties remain 
in a political stalemate with the public and neither likely to form 
a majority government after the next election, it will be virtually 
impossible for any government to commit to a combat role for the CF 
in Afghanistan after 2011 and difficult even to make firm decisions 
about other assistance beyond that date. 
BREESE