VZCZCXRO0207
PP RUEHAO RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHGR RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHMT
RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHQU RUEHRD RUEHRG RUEHRS RUEHTM RUEHVC
DE RUEHBH #0451/01 2111301
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301301Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY NASSAU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6544
INFO RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0211

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NASSAU 000451 
 
UNCLASSIFIED 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: CVIS CMGT KFRD BF
SUBJECT:  Third Country National NIV Validation Study - 2007-2008 B 
Visa Issuances 
 
¶1. SUMMARY:  Of its more than 340,000 residents, The Bahamas hosts 
approximately 40,000 Third Country Nationals (TCNs) who provide the 
bulk of low-paid labor and domestic services in the country.  The 
Turks and Caicos Islands similarly host a large TCN population. The 
largest of these groups is the Haitian community.  Post completed 
validation studies of 386 B1/B2 issuances with Haitian nationality 
and 315 persons of Jamaican, Guyanese, Chinese, Cuban and Filipino 
nationality (dubbed "All other TCNs") who received B1B2 visas 
between September 30, 2007 and October 1, 2008.  The overall 
overstay percentage for both Haitians and all other TCNs is low, 
averaging a 3.15% rate.   However, the typical confirmed and 
suspected overstay applicant for both studies was a student between 
10-19 years of age or a non-Haitian TCN of retirement age. The 
results indicate that a significant number of young applicants leave 
The Bahamas to attend public school in the U.S. 
 
¶2. METHODOLOGY: Post conducted a study of 385 B1/B2 visa recipients 
of Haitian nationality and conducted a separate, concurrent study of 
314 B1/B2 visa recipients from five TCN groups normally resident in 
the Bahamas.  Due to their socioeconomic status in The Bahamas and 
abroad, post considered these particular groups most susceptible to 
overstaying in the United States.  These nationalities are Jamaican, 
Guyanese, Chinese, Cuban and Filipino. 
 
¶3. The validation study covered a 365-day period from September 30, 
2007 until October 01, 2008. This date range was chosen to ensure 
that Post would avoid the possibility of mislabeling individuals 
currently present in the United States who have not exceeded their 
six month authorized stay in the U.S. as overstays.  A CCD-generated 
list of 707 Haitian B1/B2 recipients and 1,650 "Other TCN" B1/B2 
recipients was generated. Random sample sizes of 385 (Haitian) and 
314 (All other TCNs) were obtained using the guidance set forth by 
CA/FPP.  There is a standard deviation of 3.36 at the 95% confidence 
interval for the Haitian study and a standard deviation of 4.97 at 
the 95% confidence interval for the "Other TCN" study. 
 
¶4. DATA COLLECTION:  Post made at least four attempts to contact 
applicants over the age of 14 by phone at different times of the 
day. Applicants were told that the U.S. Embassy was conducting a 
survey of visa recipients and were asked questions such as "When did 
you go to the US?" "When did you return?"  "How long was your stay" 
and "Did you encounter any problems with law enforcement in the 
United States?" In order to achieve maximum accuracy, Post sent all 
applicant data (including children under 14) to be checked against 
the DHS Arrival Departure Information System (ADIS) and the 
Automated Targeting System (ATS).  This two-pronged approach was 
used to mitigate the high likelihood of inaccuracies that arise from 
use of only one data collection method.  Overstay results obtained 
by phone were confirmed in ADIS/ATS.  Once the data was collected by 
both means, applicants were placed into one of four status 
categories described below. 
 
¶5. THE FOUR STATUS CATEGORIES 
a. Returned: 
Of the total 385 visa issuances for Haitians only, we confirmed that 
321 returned with no evidence of overstaying in the United States. 
 
 
Of the 314 visa issuances for all other TCNS, we confirmed that 271 
returned with no evidence of overstaying in the United States. 
 
b. No Travel: 
A total of 21 Haitian visa recipients did not use their B1/B2 visas 
to travel to the United States. 
 
A total of 21 other TCN visa recipients did not use their B1/B2 
visas to travel to the United States. 
 
When asked why they did not use their B1/B2 visas to travel, they 
responded with answers such as employment loss, no financial means, 
ill family member or a death in the family. 
 
b. Inconclusive/Possible Overstay: 
A total of 30 Haitian visa recipients were classified as 
inconclusive or a possible overstay. 
 
A total of 14 other TCN visa recipients were classified as 
inconclusive or a possible overstay. 
 
Post placed individuals under this category if four attempts to 
contact the applicant were unsuccessful and ADIS records on the 
applicant's travel did not clearly demonstrate the applicant had 
returned from the U.S.  Post did not classify these individuals as 
overstays because it cannot be reasonably assumed that they are now 
living in the US; it is equally likely they had not returned their 
I-94 cards for ADIS input and were no longer using the phone number 
recorded in NIV. 
c. Overstays: 
This category consists of 13 overstays for Haitian recipients. 
 
NASSAU 00000451  002 OF 004 
 
 
 
There were 8 overstays for all other TCN recipients. 
 
Applicants that fall under this category include those whose 
relatives confirmed the visa holder is now living in the United 
States, those who moved from the address they provided at the time 
of visa issuance and left no forwarding address, and those for whom 
the phone numbers provided at the time of visa issuance were 
disconnected. Post used ADIS data checks, to determine that the 
applicants were indeed overstays in the United States. 
 
¶6. Results: Post determined that 2.19% of all Haitians and 2.55% of 
all other TCNS overstayed in the United States after entering on the 
B visa issued to them. General results are listed below: 
Nationality  Total #  Confirmed  Never  Inconclusive/ Overstays 
                       Return   Traveled  Possible 
                                          Overstay 
 
Haitians     385       83.38%     5.45%      7.79%      3.38% 
Guyanese     47        85.11%     4.25%      10.64%     0% 
Philippines  58        87.93%     5.17%      5.17%      1.72% 
Chinese      11        81.82%     18.18%     0%         0% 
Cubans       14        92.86%     0%         0%         7.14% 
Jamaicans    184       85.87%     7.61%      3.26%      3.26% 
 
Status of Haitian Visa Recipient               Percentage 
Returned with no evidence of overstay              83.38 
No Travel                                           5.45 
Inconclusive/possible overstay                      7.79 
Overstay                                            2.19 
 
 
Status of Visa Recipient on "Other TCNS"         Percentage 
 
Returned with no evidence of overstay            86.30 
No Travel                                         6.69 
Inconclusive/possible overstay                    4.50 
Overstay                                          2.55 
 
 
¶7. Detailed Analysis: The study evaluated the individuals in each of 
the three status categories of age, gender and occupation. All 
Results are listed by percentage. 
 
a. Status Category by Age with Haitians (by percentage) 
 
Age     Confirmed    Never   Inconclusive/    Overstay 
         Return    Traveled    Possible 
                               Overstay 
0-9      76.19     9.52        14.28           9.52 
10-19    72.72     2.27        13.64          11.36 
20-29    86.66     5            5              3.33 
30-39    92.59     4.63         1.85           0.93 
40-49    81.40     4.65        11.63           2.33 
50-59    80.43    10.87         8.69           0 
60-69    78.57    14.28         7.14           0 
70+      75        0           25              0 
 
COMMENT:  The results indicate that children of Haitian nationality 
between the ages of 0 and 19 were more likely to overstay than 
working-age applicants.  A high percentage of middle-aged applicants 
had inconclusive results, likely due to the fact that this age group 
changes residents frequently. Elderly applicants between the ages of 
50 and 70 tended not to travel. 
 
b. Status Category by Age with all TCNS 
 
Age     Confirmed    Never   Inconclusive/    Overstay 
         Return    Traveled    Possible 
                               Overstay 
0-9      80.78     0           15.38          3.85 
10-19    74.19     9.68         6.45          9.68 
20-29    88.09     2.38         7.14          2.38 
30-39    90.72     3.09        5.15           1.03 
40-49    86.49     5.40        6.76           1.35 
50-59    88.88     3.70        7.40           0 
60-69    85.71     7.14        0              7.14 
70+      66.66     0          33.33           0 
 
COMMENT:  The results indicate that school-age children of at-risk 
TCN groups are more likely to overstay than working-age applicants. 
A significant percentage of applicants who are likely to have just 
entered retirement (ages 60-69) are also likely to overstay. 
 
c. Status Category by Gender 
 
Nationality  Sex      Confirmed  Never  Inconclusive/ Overstays 
                       Return   Traveled  Possible 
                                          Overstay 
 
NASSAU 00000451  003 OF 004 
 
 
Haitians     Females   84.15      4.27      8.54          3.04 
             Males     82.35      6.33      7.24          4.07 
Guyanese     Females   84.61      3.85     11.54          0 
             Males     85.71      4.76      9.52          0 
Philippines  Females   87.93      5.17      5.17          1.72 
             Males     87.5       4.17      8.33          0 
Chinese      Females   81.11     18.18      0             0 
             Males     50        50         0             0 
Cubans       Females  100         0         0             0 
             Males     66.67      0         0            33.33 
Jamaicans    Females   84.13      4.76      7.94          3.17 
             Males     89.65      0         6.70          3.45 
COMMENT:  Haitian, Jamaican and Cuban males are more likely to 
overstay than their female counterparts.  Guyanese and Filipino 
females are more likely to overstay, although there is a 
significantly higher percentage of female workers of these 
nationalities living and working in the Bahamas. 
 
d. Status Category by Occupation - Haitian Study 
 
Occupation     Confirmed    Never   Inconclusive/    Overstay 
                Return    Traveled    Possible 
                                      Overstay 
Not on 
Application     82.61        0         17.39           0 
Retired         75          25          0              0 
Housewife       91.67        0          8.33           0 
Student         70          50         13.33          11.67 
Toddler/baby    85.71        0         14.28           0 
Services        88.40        3.35       3.35           2.90 
Laborer         87.50        3.90       6.25           2.34 
Gardener        79.31       17.24       3.45           0 
Construction    84.61        0         15.38           0 
Professional    76.19       14.28       4.76           4.76 
Self-employed   75          25          0              0 
Teacher        100           0          0              0 
Unemployed       0           0        100              0 
 
COMMENT:  Students comprised the highest overstay percentage.  This 
result concurs with post's overstay rate breakdown by age. 
Retirees, construction workers, laborers and Haitian nationals 
working in the service sector are the least likely to overstay. 
 
e. Status Category by Occupation - "Other TCN" Study 
 
Occupation     Confirmed    Never   Inconclusive/    Overstay 
                Return    Traveled    Possible 
                                      Overstay 
Not on 
Application     81.48        7.41       11.11          0 
Retired         60           0          20            20 
Housewife       75          25           0             0 
Student         78.72        6.38        8.51          6.38 
Toddler/baby    69.23        0          23.07          7.69 
Services        80.76        1.92        9.61          3.85 
Laborer         90.47        3.17        4.76          1.59 
Gardener         0           0           0             0 
Construction   100           0           0             0 
Professional    92.98        3.51        3.51          0 
Self-employed  100           0           0             0 
Teacher         92.12        2.94        2.94          0 
Unemployed       0           0           0             0 
 
COMMENT:  Among the "Other TCN" study applicant occupations, 
students and small children are also most likely to overstay their 
authorized period of stay in the U.S.   Professionals, construction 
workers, teachers, self-employed individuals and housewives are 
among the least likely to overstay their visa. 
 
CONCLUSIONS 
 
¶8. Third-Country National residents in The Bahamas and the Turks and 
Caicos (TCI) enjoy a relatively better standard of living than in 
their countries of origin. This especially holds true for members of 
the Haitian community; many of whom have lived here over 10 years. 
The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, like the United States, are 
therefore perceived as a destination for economic migrants where 
employment opportunities are available and established enclaves of 
the studied nationalities exist and thrive.  The overall results 
indicate that Haitian and other TCN communities have established 
fairly strong socioeconomic ties to The Bahamas and the Turks and 
Caicos and are currently unlikely to overstay when obtaining a visa. 
The results support the gradual decline of Post's refusal rate of 
Haitian applicants over the past four years - from 50.11% in 2005 to 
26.19% in 2008.  Refusal rates of the five "Other TCN" nationalities 
have remained constant since 2005. 
 
¶9. In spite of most applicants' ties to The Bahamas, a review of the 
overstay results point to a trend in which resident Haitian and TCN 
 
NASSAU 00000451  004 OF 004 
 
 
parents, upon obtaining their own full-validity visas in Nassau, 
apply for visas for their younger children in order to send them to 
live in the United States for educational purposes.  It is unknown 
whether their parents' previous visits in the US were preparation 
for the move or whether relatives and friends living in the U.S. 
offered to house the children while they attend school. It is also 
unknown whether these children intend to return to The Bahamas 
following graduation from high school. Given the disproportionately 
high overstay rate of students and young children in both studies, 
Post is reevaluating its current interview and application policies 
for children under the age of 14 and will more closely examine these 
applicants' parents' financial ability to afford multiple family 
vacations to the U.S.  Post also intends to further scrutinize 
retiree-age applicants from the "Other TCN" nationality groups. 
 
¶10. COMMENT: Post believes this study remains valid as long as the 
current status-quo (lax enforcement allowing long-time and recently 
arrived Haitian migrants to live in The Bahamas and TCIs) remains in 
place.  However, Bahamian immigration officials recently announced 
plans to increase efforts to stamp out illegal immigration and to 
reduce the number of foreign workers in the country.  Post will 
conduct additional studies next year to determine whether these new 
GCOB initiatives result in an increased number of Haitian and "Other 
TCN" overstays in the United States. END COMMENT 
 
 
ZUNIGA-BROWN