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PP RUEHAO RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHGR RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHMT
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DE RUEHBH #0449/01 2111149
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301149Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY NASSAU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6541
INFO RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0209

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NASSAU 000449 
 
UNCLASSIFIED 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: CVIS CMGT KFRD BF
SUBJECT:  Third Country National NIV Validation Study - 2007-2008 B 
Visa Issuances 
 
¶1. SUMMARY:  Of its more than 340,000 residents, The Bahamas hosts 
approximately 40,000 Third Country Nationals (TCNs) who provide the 
bulk of low-paid labor and domestic services in the country.  The 
Turks and Caicos Islands similarly host a large TCN population. The 
largest of these groups is the Haitian community.  Post completed 
validation studies of 386 B1/B2 issuances with Haitian nationality 
and 315 persons of Jamaican, Guyanese, Chinese, Cuban and Filipino 
nationality (dubbed "All other TCNs") who received B1B2 visas 
between September 30, 2007 and October 1, 2008.  The overall 
overstay percentage for both Haitians and all other TCNs is low, 
averaging a 3.15% rate.   However, the typical confirmed and 
suspected overstay applicant for both studies was a student between 
10-19 years of age or a non-Haitian TCN of retirement age. The 
results indicate that a significant number of young applicants leave 
The Bahamas to attend public school in the U.S. 
¶2. METHODOLOGY: Post conducted a study of 385 B1/B2 visa recipients 
of Haitian nationality and conducted a separate, concurrent study of 
314 B1/B2 visa recipients from five TCN groups normally resident in 
the Bahamas.  Due to their socioeconomic status in The Bahamas and 
abroad, post considered these particular groups most susceptible to 
overstaying in the United States.  These nationalities are Jamaican, 
Guyanese, Chinese, Cuban and Filipino. 
¶3. The validation study covered a 365-day period from September 30, 
2007 until October 01, 2008. This date range was chosen to ensure 
that Post would avoid the possibility of mislabeling individuals 
currently present in the United States who have not exceeded their 
six month authorized stay in the U.S. as overstays.  A CCD-generated 
list of 707 Haitian B1/B2 recipients and 1,650 "Other TCN" B1/B2 
recipients was generated. Random sample sizes of 385 (Haitian) and 
314 (All other TCNs) were obtained using the guidance set forth by 
CA/FPP.  There is a standard deviation of 3.36 at the 95% confidence 
interval for the Haitian study and a standard deviation of 4.97 at 
the 95% confidence interval for the "Other TCN" study. 
¶4. DATA COLLECTION:  Post made at least four attempts to contact 
applicants over the age of 14 by phone at different times of the 
day. Applicants were told that the U.S. Embassy was conducting a 
survey of visa recipients and were asked questions such as "When did 
you go to the US?" "When did you return?"  "How long was your stay" 
and "Did you encounter any problems with law enforcement in the 
United States?" In order to achieve maximum accuracy, Post sent all 
applicant data (including children under 14) to be checked against 
the DHS Arrival Departure Information System (ADIS) and the 
Automated Targeting System (ATS).  This two-pronged approach was 
used to mitigate the high likelihood of inaccuracies that arise from 
use of only one data collection method.  Overstay results obtained 
by phone were confirmed in ADIS/ATS.  Once the data was collected by 
both means, applicants were placed into one of four status 
categories described below. 
¶5. THE FOUR STATUS CATEGORIES 
a. Returned: 
Of the total 385 visa issuances for Haitians only, we confirmed that 
321 returned with no evidence of overstaying in the United States. 
 
 
Of the 314 visa issuances for all other TCNS, we confirmed that 271 
returned with no evidence of overstaying in the United States. 
 
b. No Travel: 
A total of 21 Haitian visa recipients did not use their B1/B2 visas 
to travel to the United States. 
 
A total of 21 other TCN visa recipients did not use their B1/B2 
visas to travel to the United States. 
 
When asked why they did not use their B1/B2 visas to travel, they 
responded with answers such as employment loss, no financial means, 
ill family member or a death in the family. 
 
c. Inconclusive/Possible Overstay: 
A total of 30 Haitian visa recipients were classified as 
inconclusive or a possible overstay. 
 
A total of 14 other TCN visa recipients were classified as 
inconclusive or a possible overstay. 
 
Post placed individuals under this category if four attempts to 
contact the applicant were unsuccessful and ADIS records on the 
applicant's travel did not clearly demonstrate the applicant had 
returned from the U.S.  Post did not classify these individuals as 
overstays because it cannot be reasonably assumed that they are now 
living in the US; it is equally likely they had not returned their 
I-94 cards for ADIS input and were no longer using the phone number 
recorded in NIV. 
 
d. Overstays: 
   This category consists of 13 overstays for Haitian recipients. 
 
   There were 8 overstays for all other TCN recipients. 
 
 
NASSAU 00000449  002 OF 002 
 
 
Applicants that fall under this category include those whose 
relatives confirmed the visa holder is now living in the United 
States, those who moved from the address they provided at the time 
of visa issuance and left no forwarding address, and those for whom 
the phone numbers provided at the time of visa issuance were 
disconnected. Post used ADIS data checks, to determine that the 
applicants were indeed overstays in the United States. 
¶6. Results: Post determined that 2.19% of all Haitians and 2.55% of 
all other TCNS overstayed in the United States after entering on the 
B visa issued to them. General results are listed below: 
Nationality Total # Confirmed ReturnNever TraveledInconclusive/ 
Possible OverstayOverstaysHaitians