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FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0572
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUZEFAA/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001657 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Ruling Party Undermines Somaliland Elections 
 
REF: Nairobi 1271 
Nairobi 1539 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Somaliland's on-again, off-again presidential 
election preparations, that were to have resulted in registered 
voters casting their ballots on September 27, were dealt a serious 
setback on July 28 - 30 when incumbent President Riyale and a 
compliant National Electoral Commission (NEC) decided to abandon the 
international community-funded voter registration lists and instead 
hold elections the "traditional Somali way."  Riyale's action 
sparked howls of protest by Somaliland's two opposition parties and 
a public statement of concern by the international community.  The 
protests triggered the expulsion of the technician for an NGO 
charged with compiling the lists. Efforts by the Somalia Unit and 
the British Ambassador in Addis Ababa to contact Riyale in the wake 
of the expulsion have been to date rebuffed by the President. 
Somaliland's largest cable television network, Horn Cable 
Television, was ordered to suspend broadcasting as the scandal 
gathered steam.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Stakeholders Meet Most Conditions 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Somaliland's electoral process continues to proceed in 
fits and starts.  Over the last several weeks, the political 
parties, NEC, and the government managed to meet almost of all the 
stipulated conditions for getting the troubled presidential 
elections (reftels) back on track.  Accomplishments: 
 
-- an agreement on the parameters to be used in compiling the final 
voter registration list was signed on June 23; 
 
-- a code of conduct was signed on July 11; 
 
-- a Government contribution (approximately $1.25 million) for the 
elections was received on July 13; 
 
-- harmonization of the electoral laws was approved by parliament on 
July 18; 
 
-- the Government's plan to ensure security during the campaign and 
voting period was presented on July 19. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The only condition not met was the reconstitution of the 
NEC, though all parties, including President Riyale, had agreed to 
replace three or four NEC members.  (The international donor 
community had insisted that the NEC had to be reconstituted under 
new leadership if it was to discharge its responsibilities.  On July 
27, the Somalia Unit made this point to both President Riyale and 
with Kulmiye Chairman Ahmed Silanyo. 
 
------------------ 
Voter Registration 
List Complete 
------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) On July 27, an elections expert from US-based Creative 
Associates (contracted by Interpeace with USAID funds) provided an 
independent analysis of the voter registration process, the 
provisional voter registration list, and of the steps necessary to 
provide a final voter registration list to the NEC and the political 
parties.  Creative Associates reported that the provisional list 
contained approximately 1.22 million names (Note: the initial list 
contained 1.36 million unique registrants.  The agreed parameters 
were then run on the database, removing 130,000 from the list.  The 
number of disqualified registrants was about half the amount 
expected.  End note.) 
 
¶5.  (SBU) After the preliminary figures were presented to the 
representatives of the three parties, two of the parties (UDUB and 
UCID) expressed disappointment at what they said was the very high 
number of registered voters.  (Note:  Most experts believe that a 
large number of voters would favor Kulmiye. End note.)  The party 
representatives discussed possible ways to tweak the parameters in 
order to produce a more "accurate" (and smaller) list. The elections 
expert noted that, even if somewhat flawed, the voter registration 
process would result in a more transparent and technically "better" 
election than past contests, which had been held without benefit of 
a voter registration process.  Among the options considered for 
refining the list were: 
 
 
NAIROBI 00001657  002 OF 003 
 
 
-- hold the election with the current list and protect against fraud 
with measures such as finger-inking, a massive voter education 
campaign, and a stronger NEC; 
 
-- tweak one or more of the parameters to produce a more realistic 
list.  Redaction of the list would delay its delivery to the NEC and 
political parties, but even a delay of approximately two weeks would 
not affect the election date. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Ruling Party Advocates Elections 
Without Voter Registration List 
------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) On July 27, the opposition parties Kulmiye and UCID 
publicly announced that they would accept the list in its present 
form.  In a surprise move, the NEC Chairman Jama Mahamud Umar (of 
the UDUB ruling party) announced in an interview on the BBC Somali 
Service that the NEC would throw out the list entirely and conduct 
the elections in the "traditional" way.  Umar's announcement was 
triggered by a signed letter from four of the seven NEC members who 
had advocated "traditional" elections.  Several of our contacts told 
us that President Riyale had met with the NEC Chair and Vice-Chair 
on July 26 to advocate elections without the voter registration 
list.  We also were told that President Riyale personally pressed 
each of the seven NEC members to sign the letter supporting this 
position. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) On July 28 and again on July 30, we spoke with Kulmiye 
Chairman Silanyo who expressed shock at this announcement.  He told 
us that this position was definitely not the will all the parties, 
noting Kulmiye and UCID's joint announcement of July 27 that they 
would accept the list in its present form.  Silanyo suggested that 
the international community make a public statement condemning the 
actions of the NEC and the government.  He also advised that if the 
situation continued to deteriorate, Secretary Clinton should 
publicly admonish the Somaliland government. Several civil society 
representatives told us that the decision to abandon the lists had 
caused outrage among the general public.  Mohamed Nur, the official 
Somaliland representative in Nairobi, told us that the move had been 
engineered by President Riyale and Minister of Finance Hussein Ali 
Dualeh in order to stay in power.  Nur said, "This administration is 
desperate to win and as the incumbent, Riyale will fight against a 
transparent system. Everyone knows that if one million Somalilanders 
voted, (Riyale's party) would definitely lose the election." 
 
--------------------- 
Joint Donor Statement 
--------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) The Somaliland Democratization Program Steering Committee, 
comprising the U.S., UK, EC, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and 
Switzerland (the U.S. and UK are co-chairs), released the following 
statement on July 29: 
 
Begin text:  "The donors congratulate the Somaliland people on the 
production of a voter list on July 27, 2009, which is now ready and 
available.  This represents the culmination of enormous effort by 
the stakeholders and an important opportunity for the Somaliland 
people. 
 
"The donors recognise that the production of the voter list, as 
positively evaluated by an independent U.S. company, provides a 
credible basis for the holding of free and fair elections. The 
production of the voter list is mandated by the relevant Somaliland 
electoral laws and in line with the consensual agreements among the 
political parties. 
 
"The donors regret the announcement by the chair of the National 
Electoral Commission on the BBC Somali Service on July 28, 2009, of 
an intention to hold the presidential elections without the voter 
list which, if carried forward, would represent a significant loss 
for the Somaliland people - as well as for Somaliland's 
democratization process. 
 
The donors urge all Somaliland stakeholders to draw on the 
long-standing Somaliland tradition of consensual decision-making and 
capacity for leadership in order to reconcile any differences and 
prepare for the holding of credible, free and fair presidential 
elections." End text. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
NAIROBI 00001657  003 OF 003 
 
 
International Advisor Declared Persona Non Grata 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) On July 29, Interpeace technicians provided copies of the 
provisional voter registration list to all of the parties. They also 
presented a printed version of the list, in order to dispel rumors 
that no list existed.  The NEC chair objected strongly to the 
release of the list, although that had been agreed in advance.  On 
July 30, Somaliland police surrounded the building in which 
Interpeace's lead technician was located.  He was declared "persona 
non grata" by the Somaliland administration and expelled the same 
day.  At the airport, security officials confiscated his laptop, 
CDs, notes, and other documents. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) With the technician expelled, the server that contained 
the program and the password-protected data remains at NEC 
headquarters and all of the hardware procured for the voter 
registration process (including 1,000 laptop computers) at the NEC 
warehouse.  Copies of the voter registration list and back-up copies 
of the data on the server have already been taken to safe places 
outside of Somaliland. 
 
-------------- 
Media Blackout 
-------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The two opposition parties hastily scheduled a press 
conference on the morning of July 30, to bring attention to the 
deportation of Interpeace's staff.  In what has become a common 
pattern of media harassment (ref B), the Somaliland authorities on 
July 29 ordered Horn Cable Television to suspend broadcasting. 
(Note: This cable station is independently-owned and operated and 
has the largest coverage in Somaliland.)  We spoke with the CEO of 
HCTV who confirmed that police entered the station to order its 
closure, and arrested a journalist and the chief editor.  (The 
editor was released on July 30.)  Our contacts told us that while 
the public opposes the NEC announcement, without major media outlets 
operating, outreach and mobilization is limited. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) The situation in Somaliland remains fluid.  We have 
contacted the major opposition parties, which have both expressed 
outrage at the NEC's announcement.  We have tried to reach President 
Riyale, but his staff has rebuffed our efforts.  The UK Special 
Envoy in Addis Ababa had been scheduled to speak to Riyale on July 
¶30.  His call was cancelled.  Most of our contacts agree that Riyale 
himself is behind the NEC decision to throw out the list, and with 
it the almost 10 million dollar investment by the international 
community in the voter registration process.  The fact that the 
majority of NEC members jettisoned an electoral process that they 
were supposed to have been advancing suggests that, as constituted, 
the NEC is hostile to free, fair and transparent elections; as 
apparently is the incumbent administration, which conspired with the 
NEC to sabotage the election preparations. 
 
RANNEBERGER