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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001470 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON 
ACCRA PLEASE PASS TO A/S CARSON 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KWMN SOCI SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Puntland Moves Toward Greater Autonomy 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  On June 29, Puntland's parliament passed a new 
constitution which, if ratified by public referendum (tentatively 
scheduled for 2010) would increase the likelihood of Puntland's 
succession. Contacts tell us clan and business interests could stave 
off ratification.  The constitution also calls for a transition from 
clan representation to a pluralist system. The move to multi-party 
democracy, however, is likely to remain illusory if Puntland 
President Abdirahman Farole continues to use the democratization 
process as a tool to consolidate executive power and embolden his 
subclan of the Darod/Harti. We are urging Farole to work with civil 
society and election advisors, provide civic education in advance of 
general elections, consult with clan elders from across Puntland, 
and engage with the TFG on the contentious issues of federalism and 
resource control. End Summary. 
 
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Constitutional Reform, A Multi-Year Process 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The Puntland regional government operated under a 
provisional charter when it was first established in 1998 until May 
26, 2001, when its parliament approved a provisional constitution. 
The provisional constitution relied on clan elders to select members 
of parliament who subsequently elected the speaker of parliament, 
president and vice president. The provisional constitution was 
supposed to have been subject to a referendum in 2004. However, lack 
of capacity and political will prevented the referendum from taking 
place. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The new constitution was developed through a process that 
began in May 2007.  A government-appointed constitutional review 
committee comprised of 11 members created the first draft which was 
submitted to several public forums of second tier political figures 
such as mayors and governors, civil society members, and traditional 
leaders. In June 2008, following the public forums, the committee 
completed a final draft of the constitution. The cabinet passed the 
draft, but the parliament refused to do so, arguing that any next 
steps should be taken by the next administration. The parliament was 
set to expire in 6 months and Presidential elections were scheduled 
for January 2009. On June 29, after six months of cabinet level 
redrafting, Puntland's new administration approved the 
constitution. 
 
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Multi-Party Politics 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The new constitution introduces, for the first time, 
multi-party competitive politics in Puntland and builds upon 
Somaliland's model of a three party system. Under the new 
constitution, the three political parties with the most votes during 
District Council elections will be registered as the only three 
political parties allowed to run for parliament for a ten year 
period. (Note: Municipal elections are held every 5 years. The ten 
year timeframe represents two municipal election cycles. End Note.) 
The new constitution disallows parties based on clan and attempts to 
transcend narrow clan alliance by requiring political parties have 
branches in all regions of Puntland. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Executive Attempting to Consolidate Greater Control 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) January presidential victor Abdirahman Farole and his new 
cabinet redrafted the constitution and vested more control in the 
hands of the executive, a move that will most likely continue to be 
debated and contentious in Puntland, despite the June 29 
parliamentary approval of the draft. The new constitution makes it 
easier for President Farole to remove members of the judiciary and 
makes impeachment of the president more difficult. An Interpeace 
advisor to Farole told us his organization intends to reopen these 
issues with the President, despite the parliamentary approval of the 
constitution, as well as advise the President on the next steps of 
ratification and the creation of an electoral commission. The new 
constitution provisionally takes effect immediately. A date has not 
yet been set for public ratification, but our contacts tell us it 
will be sometime in 2010. 
 
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NAIROBI 00001470  002 OF 002 
 
 
Towards Greater Autonomy 
------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) In a clear sign of edging toward greater autonomy, under 
the new constitution, Puntland will modify its name from "Puntland 
Regional Government" to "the Puntland State of Somalia." 
Negotiations with Mogadishu would determine what powers the Puntland 
government would cede to the Somalia federal government. Until then 
Puntland would operate independently. (Note: Puntland's perceived 
right to control its own natural resources is a continual source of 
tension between Puntland and southern Somalia. Our contacts tell us 
drafters of the constitution wanted stronger and more specific 
language stating Puntland's demands in this area, but finally agreed 
on more flexible language after advice from constitutional advisors. 
End note.)  The constitution states the Puntland government will 
reconsider its federal arrangement with Somalia if the Somali people 
fail to agree on a federal system and instability in southern 
Somalia continues to prevail. Under such circumstances, the Puntland 
government reserves the right to seek a two-thirds vote for 
secession in parliament which would then be put to public 
referendum. (Note: Our contacts tell us that, while Puntlanders 
advocate for strong Puntland autonomy, secession would not be widely 
popular among Puntlanders due to cross-cutting clan and business 
ties with southern Somalia. End Note.) 
 
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Comment 
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¶7. (SBU) We assess the new constitution is potentially a step toward 
long-term political reforms. However, it is also very likely Farole 
will attempt to manipulate the move to national elections and a 
three-party party system to seize greater executive control and 
sideline would-be subclan opponents. Puntland's delicate political 
balance is threatened by intra-Darod/Harti tensions, with Farole's 
Majerteen subclan widely perceived as increasingly hegemonic. There 
is not yet a date for popular ratification of the constitution and 
little to no movement on either electoral commission or voter 
registration processes. Vesting greater control in the executive or 
a potential call for secession would probably be widely unpopular 
among Puntlanders and, taken together, could roil Puntland's 
political waters. 
 
SLUTZ