VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #1448/01 1900832
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 090832Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0279
INFO RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7523
RUEHSUN/USMISSION USUN ROME IT
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4631
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 2154
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS NAIROBI 001448 
 
AIDAC 
 
USAID/DCHA 
DCHA/OFDA FOR ACONVERY, KCHANNELL, CCHRISTIE 
DCHA/FFP FOR JBORNS, JDWORKEN, SANTHONY, CMUTAMBA, 
DNELSON 
AFR/EA 
STATE FOR AF/E, AF/F AND PRM 
USUN FOR DMERCADO 
USMISSION UN ROME FOR HSPANOS 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
BRUSSELS FOR PBROWN 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID ECON EAGR TBIO SOCI PHUM PREL KE
SUBJECT:  KENYA - LONG RAINS FAILURE IN SOUTHEASTERN 
AND COAST AREAS EXACERBATE FOOD INSECURITY 
 
REFS: NAIROBI 1307 AND PREVIOUS 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  A USAID Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance 
(USAID/OFDA) visit to Mwingi District in Kenya?s 
Eastern Province confirms that poor performance of the 
2009 long rains, rising staple food prices, and 
declining livestock terms of trade are significantly 
disrupting food security and agro-pastoralist 
livelihoods in the region and causing increased 
malnutrition.  Preliminary reports indicate that 
southeastern and coastal districts in particular are 
experiencing similar drought conditions.  Even if the 
2009 short rains in October and November are adequate 
in these marginal agricultural areas, no harvest can be 
expected before March 2010.  A joint GOK/UN/NGO long 
rains assessment under the Kenya Food Security Steering 
Group (KFSSG) will be conducted beginning July 6.  An 
increased need for food aid, nutritional interventions 
and other humanitarian assistance is expected in the 
arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya.  End summary. 
 
--------------------- 
SEASONAL RAIN FAILURE 
--------------------- 
 
¶2. On June 10, a USAID/OFDA team visited Mwingi 
District, Eastern Province to assess the food security 
situation after the poor performance of the 2009 long 
rains (March - May).  The district received only two 
days of rain during this year?s long rains, following 
the poor performance of the 2008 short (October ? 
November) and long rains.  The team noted that river 
beds were dry, earthen dams that usually held water at 
this time of year were empty, and livestock appeared 
thin. Local officials reported that the distance to 
water sources had increased up to 20 kilometers, and 
many families were migrating to other areas for food 
and water. 
 
¶3.  According to sub-district health workers, increased 
cases of malnutrition and disease in children younger 
than five years of age and other groups of vulnerable 
people were already evident on the ground and are 
expected to increase. 
 
------------------ 
PERSISTENT DROUGHT 
------------------ 
 
¶4.  According to USAID-funded Famine Early Warning 
Systems Network (FEWSNET), all provinces experienced 
below average rainfall for the March to May long rains, 
with four of eight provinces in Kenya receiving less 
than 40 percent of the average rainfall typical for the 
season, including Coast Province, which received less 
than 12 percent of the average typical rainfall. 
 
¶5.  Kenya has experienced below average rains since 
¶2004.  With arid or semi-arid lands comprising 80 
percent of the country, vulnerability to drought is 
high and resilience is eroding.  The pastoral and 
marginal agricultural regions of the north, east and 
coast are the regions most affected by drought. 
 
¶6.  In the southeast and coast, farmers have been 
unable to harvest significant crops for three 
 
successive seasons due to widely failed rains in these 
areas.  The Government of Kenya (GOK) Ministry of 
Agriculture (MOA) reports that crops have already 
failed in large parts of the southeastern and coastal 
agricultural area, resulting in rising food prices and 
decreasing food security.  FEWSNET reports that staple 
maize prices are up an average of 180 percent in 
markets countrywide. 
 
¶7.  The MOA is reporting that in marginal agricultural 
districts similar to Mwingi, many farmers chose not to 
plant at all, due to fears of insufficient rain, and 
many planted crops have already failed.  In fact, the 
MOA has revised its crop harvest estimates down 40 
percent in the Eastern Province due to the failure of 
the long rains.  In those marginal agricultural areas, 
the next harvest is not expected until February or 
March 2010, and will be contingent on the success of 
the short rains in October and November 2009. 
 
------------- 
FOOD SECURITY 
------------- 
 
¶8.  Food staples are available in the markets around 
the country, but due to below normal supplies of maize 
and other crops, persistent drought conditions in parts 
of the country, and poor purchasing power for families 
forced to sell livestock at low prices for cash, food 
staples are out of reach for many.  Livestock prices 
decreased 4 to 25 percent in pastoral districts between 
April 2008 and March 2009 and FEWSNET expects 
additional decline due to the poor long rains and a 
lack of adequate grazing area due to drought. 
 
¶9.  An assistant chief in Mwingi reported that 60 
families recently migrated to other regions that are 
receiving Kenya Red Cross food aid, or where job 
opportunities exist.  This trend reportedly exists in 
other affected areas.  The U.N. World Food Program 
(WFP) reports a significant increase in families in the 
semi- and arid regions of Kenya selling livestock and 
assets at throwaway prices to purchase food. 
 
¶10.  WFP and GOK conducted a retargeting exercise in 
August and September 2008, which led to a decrease in 
the number of children covered under the regular school 
feeding program.  Since early 2009, at least 770,000 
children are covered by the program, down from 1.2 
million in 2008.  The focus of the school feeding 
program has shifted to arid districts and the slums of 
Nairobi and Mombasa.  It is planned that semi-arid and 
marginal agricultural areas no longer covered by WFP 
will be covered by a GOK Home Grown School Feeding 
Program, which will provide cash to schools to purchase 
food locally.  However, there have been delays in the 
launch due to the capacity of schools to accept funds. 
The WFP school feeding program ended in Mwingi district 
in February 2009 and the GOK Home Grown School Feeding 
Program has not yet been launched.  If this problem 
persists, it may contribute to increased malnutrition 
in school-aged children in affected regions. 
 
¶11.  The MOA reported that the country is short 102,000 
metric tons of maize in the national maize stocks 
necessary until the next harvest at the end of August. 
 
--------------------------- 
Declining Health Indicators 
--------------------------- 
 
 
¶12.  The Kenyan Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) 
reports an increase in cholera cases and deaths due to 
water shortages in Northeastern and Eastern Province, 
with cholera cases now spread to 27 districts.  (This 
is supported by anecdotal evidence from a recent MOPH 
field visit, where sub-district hospital staff reported 
an increase in child malnutrition and diarrheal disease 
cases, and a significant decline in health of HIV/AIDS 
patients due to poor nutrition.) 
 
¶13. The U.N. Children?s Fund (UNICEF) Kenya nutrition 
officer also voiced concern that supplementary and 
therapeutic feeding programs in arid and semi-arid 
areas and marginal agricultural regions are admitting 
an increasing number of beneficiaries.  UNICEF is 
seeking additional donor support to expand its 
supplementary and therapeutic feeding programs 
countrywide. 
 
--------------------------- 
Responding to the Situation 
--------------------------- 
 
¶14. The Kenya Food Security Steering Group?s long rains 
assessment will begin the week of July 6, providing a 
more accurate and comprehensive appraisal of the likely 
outcome of the rains on food security and humanitarian 
needs.  A draft report is expected in late July. 
 
¶15.  On June 19, WFP reported in a humanitarian 
coordination meeting that the planned increase in 
supply of food aid to meet the current needs is delayed 
due to lack of funding and limited availability of 
local cereals.  Rations of cereals sourced from India 
and South Africa were cut by 30 percent to ensure 
sufficient supply until August.  Oil and pulse rations 
have been cut by 33 to 45 percent, but are expected 
return to normal volumes following the July 7 arrival 
of a shipment of vegetable oil and pulses from US food 
stocks in Djibouti.  WFP reported that USAID food 
donations are expected, and have recently arranged to 
buy 25,000 MT of maize from India that is expected to 
arrive in August. 
 
¶16.  In May 2009, USAID/OFDA provided 1.5 million USD 
to partner German Agro Action to support cash-fQwork 
programs in Mwingi district.  The district experienced 
almost no rainfall during the recent long rains, and 
the cash-for-work program will provide income to allow 
families to purchase food and water.  USAID/OFDA has 
recently provided UNICEF Kenya an additional 1.2 
million USD to expand its support of the MOPH and non- 
governmental organizations (NGOs) in implementing 
feeding programs.  USAID/OFDA is also reviewing NGO 
requests for feeding program support in Mwingi, 
Kajiado, and Samburu districts. 
 
----------- 
Conclusion 
----------- 
 
¶17.  The failure of the 2009 long rains in southeastern 
and coastal regions has resulted in increased food 
insecurity in many districts of Kenya.  Inadequate crop 
harvests in marginal agricultural areas, and 
insufficient rains for grazing resulting in poor 
livestock terms of trade have exacerbated the situation 
for residents of drought-prone pastoral and marginal 
agricultural areas.  Food aid, feeding program support, 
 
and livelihood assistance are needed as the arid and 
semi-arid lands and marginal agricultural regions enter 
the traditional hunger gap from June to August. 
 
RANNEBERGER