VZCZCXRO5741
RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #1743/01 1841533
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 031533Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4132
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001743 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR KDEM RS
SUBJECT: MOSCOW CITY DUMA AMENDMENTS FAVOR A UNITED RUSSIA 
LANDSLIDE 
 
REF: MOSCOW 951 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary:  The Moscow City Duma amended Moscow's 
Election Code on June 17, strategically changing the rules 
for its own elections.  These measures set up a voting 
structure that favors United Russia's continual dominance in 
the October 11, 2009 Moscow City Duma elections.  Key 
legislative changes include announcing early elections, 
increasing the number of single-mandate seats from 15 to 17, 
introducing the controversial "Imperiali" method of 
distributing seats, and lowering the threshold from ten to 
seven percent.  In the absence of radical change, we expect 
another round of sham elections, with opposition groups 
occupying some seats since, by law, United Russia is not 
allowed to fill them all.  End Summary. 
 
Moscow City Duma Reverses Course on Election Date 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  On March 31, the Moscow City Duma had announced 
that in light of the economic crisis, elections would be held 
in March 2010.  On June 17, subsequent to Moscow Mayor Yuri 
Luzhkov proposing new amendments to the Moscow Election Code, 
the Moscow City Duma unexpectedly changed the elections from 
March 2010 back to October 2009.  Again, the Duma used the 
loophole contained in Article 37.2 of Russia's Federal law 
"On Basic Guarantees of Electoral Rights," which allows for 
flexibility in setting the date of the elections (reftel). 
Early elections also mean that the current Moscow City Duma 
deputies' terms will be shortened from the normal four year 
period. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Early elections disadvantage opposition groups 
since they now have less time to collect money and to 
campaign.  Ilya Yasin, a member of the opposition Federal 
Political Council and a "Solidarity" movement leader told us 
June 19 that the Moscow City Duma elections are crucial for 
opposition parties, but he expressed concern that Solidarity 
has little time to raise the necessary money.  On June 10, 
Boris Nadezhdin, a former State Duma Deputy and the Right 
Cause Party's Moscow Regional Representative, told us that 
"Luzhkov knows the United Russia party will be weaker in 
March 2010," and he thought that United Russia knows they 
should seize the opportunity now to stay in power through 
earlier elections.  On June 19 Galina Mikhaleva, Executive 
Secretary of the Political Committee of the Yabloko 
opposition party, argued that any opposition party winner 
"really depends only on who the Kremlin picks." 
 
Structural Changes Provide United Russia an Advantage 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶4. (SBU)  The Moscow City Duma has 35 deputies.  In the 
current Duma, there are 15 single-mandate seats, representing 
each of Moscow's voting districts.  Currently these are all 
filled by United Russia deputies. The 20 proportional seats 
include 13 deputies from the United Russia party, four 
deputies from KPRF, and three deputies from Yabloko.  In 
accordance with changes to Moscow's Election Code, the number 
of single-mandate seats will increase from 15 to 17, thus 
allowing United Russia to pick up easily two more seats and 
further reduce the opposition parties' chances of winning 
seats in the legislature.  Aleksandr Kynev, an expert at the 
International Institute of Humanitarian Political Research 
told us June 19 that the Moscow authorities "fear that the 
electoral results will go out of control, so they increased 
the number of single-mandate seats." 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Liliana Shibanova, the Executive Director of GOLOS, 
an NGO that monitors elections, told us on June 30 that the 
method of distributing seats in the Moscow City Duma also 
favors United Russia.  The June 17 changes introduced a 
controversial "Imperiali" method of distributing seats in the 
Moscow City Duma, which applies to the party list vote, and 
allows the winning party to gain one or two additional seats 
at the expense of the smallest parties who do not make it 
over the threshold.  According to The Moscow Times, "a 
Belgian clerical and rightist political activist invented the 
Imperiali formula in 1921 as a way to push leftist and 
secular politicians out of municipal elected bodies," but 
even Belgium itself is drafting legislation to scrap this 
method. 
 
Cosmetic Measures to Comply with Federal Legislation 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶6. (SBU)  The final legislative amendment, lowering the 
threshold from ten to seven percent, was required to make 
 
MOSCOW 00001743  002 OF 002 
 
 
city and federal election laws correspond.  This change could 
potentially help opposition candidates who might not reach 
the ten percent barrier, but could manage to obtain seven 
percent.  In the last elections in 2005, only the Communist 
Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) and Yabloko passed 
even the smaller seven percent threshold.  However, Vladimir 
Zhirinovskiy's nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia 
(LDPR) garnered eight percent, so this new measure may allow 
LDPR and others to participate in the next Moscow City Duma. 
 
Luzhkov Tops United Russia's Party List 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Yuri Luzhkov, Moscow's mayor for the last 18 years, 
has announced his intention to top the United Russia party 
list for the Moscow City Duma elections, using his name 
recognition to draw United Russia voters and to ensure that 
candidates obtain seats in the Duma.  Rumors have revived 
about Luzhkov's resignation and there is new speculation that 
Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov could succeed Luzhkov 
after the elections.  According to Shibanova, "these are just 
rumors and there is no concrete information to indicate 
otherwise."  The Kremlin has been cautious about taking on 
Russia's most powerful mayors, in fear of undermining 
effective management during the economic crisis.  The 
relations between Luzhkov and the Kremlin are essential to 
the elections since they have the power to determine which 
candidates are allowed to run and which to eliminate from the 
party lists. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU)  All indications point to a United Russia sweep in 
the elections.  Shibanova maintained that United Russia would 
lose the crucial majority only in the unlikely event that 
three opposition parties were to gain significant access to 
the Moscow City Duma.  Based on discussions with opposition 
leaders, we think that United Russia will take most, if not 
all, of the single-mandate seats and most of the proportional 
ones, plus use its new Imperiali powers to add gravy.  KPRF 
will likely come in second, maintaining about four 
single-mandate seats.  As an unregistered party, Solidarity 
is unable to run for proportional seats, but while the group 
is strategizing to divide the single-mandate districts among 
the opposition candidates it has little or no chance of 
winning seats this way. 
 
¶9. (SBU)  Yabloko's current three proportional seats appear 
to be up for grabs.  Yabloko is unlikely to run for 
single-mandate spots due to financial constraints, but will 
battle Right Cause, Just Russia, and LDPR for the remaining 
proportional seats.  During the last elections, Yabloko 
united with the Union of Right Forces (SPS) and made it into 
the Moscow City Duma as a United Democrats faction, but this 
year we do not expect such a collaboration.  Right Cause is a 
new party backed by the Kremlin made up of the remnants of 
SPS, so it represents competition for Yabloko. 
BEYRLE