VZCZCXYZ0014
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMN #0411/01 1961128
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151128Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9213
INFO RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2633
RUCNMER/MESUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000411 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/BSC - MARY DASCHBACH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM UY
SUBJECT:  Uruguay: A Strong Start for the Opposition Blanco 
Party 
 
¶1. (U) This telegram is sensitive but unclassified, and not 
for Internet distribution. 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶2. (U) While the results of UruguayQs June 28 internal 
elections largely conformed to expectations, a few surprises 
have emerged in the light of the full results.  The ruling 
Frente Amplio (FA) coalition was clearly shaken by final 
numbers showing the Blanco Party had garnered 46 percent of 
the vote, or five percent more than the FA, with Blanco winner 
Luis Alberto Lacalle getting the most votes of all the 
candidates.  Blanco turnout was higher than the FA in every 
one of Uruguay's 19 departments except Montevideo.  With the 
ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition candidate Jose Mujica only 
managing to secure runner-up Danilo Astori as his running mate 
over a week after the Blanco winner Luis Alberto Lacalle 
completed his ticket with Jorge Larranga, the FA find 
themselves confronting an energized and confident opponent who 
appear to have seized the initiative.  Although the snapshot 
nature of the primary election data precludes reliable longer- 
term forecasting, it nevertheless suggests the country may be 
in for a closely fought campaign.  End Summary 
 
Primary elections aftermath - as the fog lifts 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Initial reports suggested the incumbent Frente Amplio 
(FA) coalition and the opposition Blanco (National) party had 
attracted roughly the same number of votes during the June 28 
internal elections.  As the smoke cleared, however, it was 
revealed that votes for Blanco candidates represented 46 
percent of the vote, a lead of almost 5 percentage points over 
the FAQs 41 percent share.  The third-placed Colorado party 
attracted a respectable total of 11.9 percent. 
 
¶4. (U) There were also some mild surprises in the geographical 
spread of the votes.  The FA currently governs 8 of UruguayQs 
19 electoral districts, including the two most important, 
Montevideo and Canelones.  With the exception of Montevideo, 
not only did the Blanco support trump that of the FA in every 
one of these departments, but in Canelones, normally a bastion 
of FA support, the ruling coalition was relegated to the 
status of a distant runner up.  The Blancos have also been 
buoyed by the news that the FA presidential candidate Jose 
QPepeQ Mujica attracted 50,000 less votes than the winning 
Blanco candidate, ex-president Luis Alberto Lacalle, a result 
further sweetened by the revelation that Mujica had only 
generated 20,000 more votes than second place Blanco candidate 
Jorge Larranaga. 
 
¶5. (U) Whether these figures are in any way indicative of the 
candidates' chances in the October election, however, is 
uncertain.  While some FA voters may have been disenchanted 
with the party, others may have failed to vote in the primary 
because MujicaQs victory was a foregone conclusion.  Blancos, 
meanwhile, may have been attracted by the relatively close 
struggle between Lacalle and Larranga, or may simply have been 
animated by the partyQs well organized rallying.  No matter 
the reason, FA leaders will be determined to mobilize the 
coalition faithful to vote in October. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Blancos capitalized on this early boost.  Lacalle 
and his running-mate Larranaga have already completed a 5-day, 
17 locality national tour, and Mujica yet to begin his 
official campaign, so the differences have been clear. 
 
FAQs start delayed by haggling over Vice-Presidential pick 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Aside from the enhanced turn-out, the springboard for 
much of the BlancosQ current momentum was provided by the 
announcement of Larranga as LacalleQs vice presidential 
candidate on election night (reftel).  In contrast, the 
completion of MujicaQs electoral ticket was a much more 
protracted affair.  Ex-economy minister Danilo Astori was long 
considered the only choice, but the final July 6 confirmation 
of his vice presidential candidacy came only after a series of 
intense and often fruitless negotiations that began 
immediately following AstoriQs rather graceless concession of 
defeat after the internal elections (reftel).  Despite a 
slight bump in support (possibly owing to an anti-Mujica vote 
from stray Colorados), Astori finished 54,000 votes behind his 
rival.   While it is widely assumed that Mujica needs AstoriQs 
more moderate profile and his connection to the popular 
outgoing president Tabere Vazquez, some commentators have 
speculated that Mujica had lost patience with AstoriQs pre- 
acceptance demands.  In a blunt half-hour meeting between the 
 
 
two men immediately prior to AstoriQs public nomination, 
Astori learned that his carefully honed stipulations of 
complete control over the economy and the power of veto in 
several ministries were not going to be granted.  There is 
some speculation that AstoriQs subsequent grudging 
acquiescence was largely secured by a serious of phone calls 
from President Vazquez.  It is also possible that Vazquez may 
have advised Mujica of AstoriQs consent before the meeting. 
 
The Art of Post-Election Hugging 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The strained arrangements within the FA were on full 
display in the consequent joint press conference.  Whereas 
Mujica insisted that running with Astori would be an honor, 
Astori glumly made reference to party loyalty.  Having made 
the announcement, Mujica had to be called back by party 
president Jorge Brovetto in order to engage in the traditional 
photo-op hug with his new running mate.  Both men set about 
the task with a level of enthusiasm more in keeping with an 
order to embrace a large, dead fish. 
¶9. (SBU) In contrast, Lacalle and Larranga hardly seem able to 
hold themselves back from spontaneous outbreaks of manly 
backslapping bonhomie.  Theirs is an embrace steeled by mutual 
dependence; the immediate political ambitions of both depend 
on the political capital of the other, a fact that, so far at 
least, seems to have mitigated their long standing rivalry. 
Larranaga will still need to mollify those amongst his close 
supporters whose consequent political profile may not be as 
high as it would have been had he won, but that should pose 
few problems.  While it is still early, there are a few signs 
that the FA is rattled by the apparent vitality from the 
Blanco party; Mujica declared that the FA followers should 
take to the streets and mobilize themselves in order to rise 
to the BlancoQs challenge. 
¶10. (SBU) On July 11, the FA candidates rolled out their 
renewed message of unity and purpose.  Mujica and Astori, 
flanked by the coalition's Board, finally gave rousing, 
smiling speeches together, and this time they got the hugs 
right. 
 
A Good Clean Fight? 
------------------- 
 
¶11. (U) The tightness of the race at this early stage 
indicates that Uruguay is in for a hard-fought campaign.  Even 
before the internal elections had taken place, Lacalle had 
publically declared that potential investors are likely 
waiting until December -- following the November runoff 
election -- before deciding to do any business in Uruguay. 
That broadside was clearly designed to highlight the 
uncertainty many in the business sector feel towards Mujica. 
After Lacalle reiterated the statement this week, Mujica used 
his internet blog site to fire back the accusation that 
Lacalle had sabotaged the country.  He also stated that 
investments not only need to be socially beneficial but also 
politically honest, adding that Qcompanies flee from countries 
governed by bribe takers,Q a barbed reference to a corruption 
scandal that had taken place at the state insurance company 
under LacalleQs administration. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Seeking to avoid such memories, Lacalle has loftily 
declared that the campaign should focus on the future instead 
of dwelling on the past, an observation that Mujica (whose 
history as a QTupamaroQ Guerilla leader in the the 60Qs and 
70Qs includes some murky chapters) may well appreciate. 
Lacalle then went on to question Mujica's call for changes in 
the Uruguayan constitution, pointedly asking if the FA 
intended to propose a constituent assembly process such as 
that favored by Venezuelan President Chavez. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Much may change over the next four months, but 
there is little doubt that the Blancos have got off to an 
unexpectedly strong start that caught the FA off-guard.  How 
long the Blancos can retain the initiative will soon be seen. 
Now that the FA electoral ticket has settled (albeit 
fractiously), the political fight will begin in earnest.  End 
Comment.