VZCZCXRO5384
RR RUEHLMC
DE RUEHLS #0524/01 2050812
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 240812Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7164
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP 0153
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000524 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AID FOR SARAH MOTEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SOCI ZA
SUBJECT: "YOUTH BULGE" STRAINS THE FABRIC OF ZAMBIAN SOCIETY 
 
REF: A. LUSAKA 507 
     ¶B. LUSAKA 304 
 
 ¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Zambia's long-term vision for national 
development -- to become a prosperous middle income nation by 
2030 -- is beset by many challenges, including building 
democratic institutions, creating and sustaining economic 
growth, fighting corruption, and turning the tide of 
HIV/AIDS.  Adding to and complicating these challenges is 
Zambia's overwhelmingly youthful demographic - over 55 
percent of Zambia's population is under the age of 19.  This 
"youth bulge" strains public services in areas such as 
education and health and challenges Zambia's traditional 
hierarchical system that values age and experience over 
youthful innovation.  The flip side of these challenges is 
the opportunity to shape a new generation of Zambians by 
giving them the tools to claim a stake in the future of their 
country.  End summary. 
 
Zambia:  The New King of Pop(ulation) 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Zambia's population in mid-2009 is estimated at 
12.8 million, with an average fertility rate of 6.2 children 
per woman (rural fertility rates are as high as 7.5 children 
per woman, among the highest in the world).  This fertility 
rate has remained relatively constant over the past 15 years 
and is high for the region - Malawi, Tanzania, Mozambique and 
Zimbabwe all have lower fertility rates.  Because birth rates 
have been so high for so long, Zambia has a young population. 
 According to an analysis prepared for the Ministry of 
Finance's Social and Population Unit, over 55 percent of 
Zambia's population is under the age of 19, with 46 percent 
under the age of 15.  By contrast, approximately 7 percent of 
the population is aged 65 and above. 
 
¶3. (SBU) This young population has serious consequences for 
Zambian society in the near and long term.  Zambia's child 
dependency ratio, or the number of child dependents under the 
age of 15 for every 100 adults of working age, is currently 
about 93.  This places a heavy burden on the working age 
population, who must provide for their dependents, and it 
constrains the provision of social services funded out of a 
relatively small tax base.  If fertility rates remain 
unchanged, population models estimate that Zambia's 
population could grow to 32.7 million by 2037. 
 
Zambia's Children Are the Future: Teach Them Well... 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶4. (U) A child in Zambia faces an uphill climb in his or her 
attempt to become a productive member of society.  Zambia's 
education system is already under strain -- there were 2.9 
million children in grades 1-7 in 2008, compared to 1.8 
million in 2000.  The GRZ announced free basic education 
(grades 1-7) in 2002, which translated into large increases 
in primary school enrollment.  Net primary school enrollment 
was officially 103 percent in 2008 (over 100 percent due to 
probable undercounting in official population statistics), 
but the quality of education is still an issue.  Only 
one-third of the students in grade 5 attain the minimum level 
in English and math.  A key factor in this low achievement is 
the high pupil/teacher ration of 71:1 in lower grades.  Most 
classes are split into double or triple shifts, meaning that 
pupils receive only three hours or less of instruction per 
school day, leaving teachers overworked and fatigued. 
 
¶5. (U) The rapid expansion of basic education has also 
increased the demand for post-primary education, but supply 
remains limited due to a lack of facilities and qualified 
teachers.  Net secondary school enrollment was only 24.6 
percent in 2007. and drop out rates are high, especially for 
girls.  In 2009, about 58,000 pupils took the grade 12 
examinations and almost 35,000 students passed.  However, the 
total enrollment for Zambia's three public universities is 
less than 15,000 students, and the 286 government-certified 
vocational training institutions and two-year skills training 
institutions have an enrollment of only about 26,000.  This 
means that many high school graduates are unable to pursue 
tertiary education, even in a vocational training 
institution. 
 
And Let Them Lead the Way? 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Even if they manage to stay in school and graduate 
with a degree or vocational diploma, young people face an 
economy with few jobs to offer.  An estimated 250,000 young 
 
LUSAKA 00000524  002 OF 002 
 
 
people (ages 15-25; 15 is the minimum working age) enter the 
work force every year.  The Central Statistical Office's last 
announcement regarding the unemployment rate was in 2006, 
when it said that 16 percent of Zambians aged 15 and older 
were unable to find work.  According to a 2005 Labour Force 
survey, of the 4.1 million Zambians working, only 416,000 (10 
percent) were employed in the formal sector, while 3.2 
million (78 percent) were employed in the informal sector 
(e.g., working as domestic employees or working in an 
unregistered business).  Most observers agree that youth 
unemployment is much higher than the overall unemployment 
rate, and underemployment is estimated at over 84 percent of 
total employed persons. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Zambian youth who may wish to turn their fight to 
the political realm will find the going very hard.  More 
vehicles for the promotion of particular persons than 
political agendas, Zambian political parties rely on the 
traditional hierarchical social system that values age and 
experience over youthful innovation.  In the 2008 
presidential elections, the two top vote-getters, Rupiah 
Banda and Michael Sata, were both 71 years old -- and it 
appears that both intend to run again in 2011.  Most parties 
have youth branches, but they are usually on display for 
elections and conventions and conveniently ignored for much 
of the rest of the time.  Sam Zulu, the opposition Patriotic 
Front's (PF) youth chairperson, was attacked by PF heavies 
during a press conference at which he was decrying the 
party's lack of internal democracy (ref A). 
 
¶8. (SBU) In the scramble to carry out presidential elections 
precipitated by the August 2008 death of president Levy 
Mwanawasa within the constitutionally-mandated three months, 
the GRZ decided that it did not have time to update voter 
rolls and instead used lists from the 2006 elections.  This 
meant that any Zambian who had turned 18 since 2006 was 
disenfranchised.  Some experts estimate that up to 1.2 
million young people were prevented from voting in a country 
that has 3.9 million registered voters overall -- only 1.8 
million of whom even voted in 2008. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The 2011 elections now loom on the horizon, and the 
GRZ's promises of a new voter registration drive have thus 
far not panned out (ref B).  The GRZ informed donors in March 
that voter registration would not begin until 2010 because 
the National Constitutional Conference (NCC) was considering 
increasing the number of parliamentary constituencies, which 
in turn would require changes to voting district boundaries. 
The NCC was scheduled to complete its deliberations in July 
of 2009, but it now looks like final recommendations and 
determinations will not be made until later this year. 
Unless issuance of voter and national identification cards 
(both required in order to vote) begins soon, up to 2.8 
million youth could be disenfranchised in the 2011 elections. 
 
 
The Role of Assistance:  My Future's So Bright... 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶10. (SBU)  Zambia's youth bulge represents the greatest 
threat to Zambia's historic stability.  Addressing this youth 
bulge problem clearly presents formidable challenges to a 
country that already has plenty on its plate.  With a "rising 
tide lifts all boats" logic, U.S. Mission Zambia's focus on 
economic growth as its number one assistance and policy 
priority has a certain relevance to the overwhelmingly young 
Zambian public.  However, more can be done to address the 
particular stresses to the Zambian system imposed by a 
largely youthful population.  New programs could address 
tertiary, technical and vocational education needs and 
assistance to the GRZ in preparing the 2011 elections, 
particularly with regard to registering, educating and 
motivating the youth electorate. 
BOOTH