VZCZCXRO5945
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHLO #1708/01 2051655
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241655Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2963
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST 1379
RUEHED/AMCONSUL EDINBURGH 1178
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LONDON 001708 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PLEASE PASS TO DAVID WINN, OES/IHB, STATE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TBIO KFLU ECON AMGT AMED SOCI CASC EAGR UK
SUBJECT: HMG ACCELERATES MEASURES TO COMBAT H1N1 VIRUS; 
EMBASSY LONDON PREPARES 
 
LONDON 00001708  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary.  HMG is preparing for the worst case 
scenario that one third of the UK population could become 
infected by the H1N1 virus, with potential deaths ranging 
from 19,000 to 65,000.  HMG's National Pandemic Flu Service 
website became operational on July 23 and within minutes of 
its launch, received 9.3 million hits per hour, overloading 
the system.  HMG has identified 31 deaths (as of July 22) 
attributable to the H1N1 virus and estimates that 100,000 
people were infected with the virus during the week of July 
¶19.  Despite predictions from HMG that 65,000 people in the 
UK could die from the H1N1 virus, to date there have been 
fewer deaths than during an ordinary bad flu season.  The UK 
already has 132 million doses of vaccine on order for autumn, 
sufficient for every UK citizen.  The H1N1 virus threatens to 
put the UK under further economic strain, with some 
predictions that the pandemic could reduce the UK's GDP by 5 
percent or more.  Post is encouraging staff to use the 
National Pandemic Flu Service should they become ill and is 
preparing management and outreach strategies should the 
pandemic become more severe.  End summary. 
 
HMG Coordination and Demographic "Hotspots" 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) HMG expects that one third of the UK population will 
become infected with the H1N1 virus and is closely 
coordinating efforts between the National Healthcare Service 
(NHS), UK Department of Health, UK Health and Protection 
Agency, and other agencies.  HMG's emergency team "COBRA," 
which is named after the "Cabinet Office Briefing Room A" 
where it normally meets, convened high-level 
inter-ministerial meetings within days of the H1N1 virus 
emerging in late April 2009.  Cabinet Office staff Amanda 
Crouch told ESTHOff another inter-ministerial group -- at a 
lower level -- meets on a weekly basis to coordinate HMG 
efforts.  This includes weekly conference calls with the 
Scottish and Northern Ireland governments to ensure all 
parties are kept informed of developments.  There is also a 
small task force of staff, she said, seconded from other 
agencies to coordinate HMG's efforts to address the pandemic. 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) London, the West Midlands, and Scotland continue to 
be the "hotspots" for the virus, although Scottish health 
authorities are reporting that numbers are starting to drop 
off.  UK Department of Health Official Jo Newstead told 
ESTHOff there is no specific cause for the higher rates of 
H1N1 virus in these areas other than the fact they are in 
high-density population centers.  Rates of the virus in 
Northern Ireland continue to remain low, with only fifty 
confirmed cases as of July 10.  Epidemiologists report 
children (5-17 years of age) are being hit hardest by the 
H1N1 virus, while the impact on the elderly is relatively 
low. 
 
HMG Changes Approach 
-------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) UK Health Secretary Andy Burnham announced to 
Parliament on July 2 HMG's transition from a "containment" to 
"treatment" strategy to tackle the H1N1 virus pandemic.  This 
means the virus will be diagnosed based on symptoms, rather 
than laboratory testing.  The same day, Department of Health 
officials shared with the House of Lords Science and 
Technology Committee its outline and plans for the National 
Pandemic Flu Service, announced publicly just a few weeks 
later.  HMG officials received considerable criticism from 
MPs on July 2 for not having the National Pandemic Flu 
Service up and running yet. 
 
National Pandemic Flu Service 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The National Pandemic Flu Service became operational 
July 23, and received an unprecedented 2,600 hits per second 
(or 9.3 million hits per hour) within minutes of its launch, 
which reportedly caused the website to crash.  HMG announced 
on July 24 it is increasing the capacity for the website. 
The National Pandemic Flu Service, initially announced by HMG 
on July 16, includes a dedicated website and hotline for 
patients to call, receive a diagnosis, and obtain an 
authorization number/voucher for a caregiver to take to a 
pharmacy to obtain antiviral (i.e. tamiflu or relenza) 
medication.  Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales will not 
participate in the service at this time. 
 
LONDON 00001708  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) HMG reports it launched the service to give patients 
access to antiviral medication as quickly as possible and to 
free up General Practitioners (GPs) to deal with other 
priorities.  In addition, part of HMG's strategy is to keep 
infected people away from the general population while they 
are contagious.  The call center employs approximately 1,500 
staff (not medically trained) that will check symptoms 
against a series of questions to diagnose whether antiviral 
medication is needed.  Conservatives and Liberal Democrats 
are already criticizing HMG's ability to cope with the 
pandemic given initial implementation problems with the flu 
service. 
 
Impact on Travel 
---------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Cabinet Office staff member Simon Strickland told 
ESTHOff HMG has no "current" plans to use any type of thermal 
imaging or other screening at airports or ports of entry. 
However, media reports indicate that British Airways and 
Virgin Atlantic airlines are banning travelers exhibiting 
symptoms of the H1N1 virus.  Information received from the 
International Air Transport Association (IATA) regarding 
these reports indicate the situation is being exaggerated by 
the media.  British Airways officials are telling IATA they 
don't do any active screening and are only following standard 
operating procedures for dealing with ill passengers. 
 
Impact on the UK's Economy 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The increasing spread of the H1N1 virus threatens to 
impact businesses and the economy.  Oxford Economics, a 
forecasting company, predicts the pandemic could result in a 
five percent decrease in the UK's GDP based on the experience 
of previous pandemics.  Results in this same study indicate 
GDP growth could turn around within 3-4 years, but that the 
H1N1 virus could tip the UK and world economy into deflation 
in the near-term.  Another study from Ernst and Young 
indicates the UK's economy could contract even more -- by 7.5 
percent in 2009.  (Comment:  This instant analysis should not 
be taken too seriously. There are lots of other factors that 
play in determining future UK growth rates). 
 
¶9. (SBU) A meeting between HMG emergency service personnel 
and businesses revealed that more than a third of the UK's 
businesses have no response plans at all for dealing with the 
pandemic.  Some predict close to 12 percent of the workforce 
is expected to be forced to stay home due to the H1N1 virus, 
especially if the flu season gears up in autumn.  In areas 
such as London and the West Midlands, UK doctors say the 
virus has reached epidemic levels and may strain transport 
and other vital services.  As a result, health officials are 
considering plans to allow people suspected to have contacted 
the H1N1 virus to take up to two weeks off work without a 
note from their GP. 
 
Embassy Working Group 
--------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU)  Embassy London convened a Working Group on the 
H1N1 virus on July 22 to review tripwires and planning 
contingencies.  A smaller group had met in late April when 
the virus initially broke out and distributed information to 
employees.  Both USG and locally employed staff will be 
directed to use the UK's National Healthcare Service (NHS) 
and the National Pandemic Flu Service if they suspect they 
have the H1N1 virus.  Post is also developing a communication 
strategy that will use a broad range of media, including the 
embassy's intranet/internet, Twitter, instant messaging, and 
social media tools such as Facebook.  Post is reviewing 
non-essential functions so that staff performing those 
functions can fill essential functions if significant numbers 
of staff fall ill.  The consular section has made contingency 
plans in the event staff levels fall below the minimum number 
to maintain normal operations.  Embassy has sufficient 
supplies to treat each employee (USG staff and their families 
and locally-employed staff) with one course of anti-viral 
medication should the UK healthcare system become 
overburdened and/or death rates increase. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
 
LONDON 00001708  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) PM Brown and HMG received a "B " in the July 23 
edition in a national British newspaper regarding its efforts 
to manage the H1N1 virus pandemic and for averting a national 
panic.  While the UK's healthcare system is far from perfect, 
the HMG's strong coordination and the National Pandemic Flu 
Service are all positive signs the UK is prepared.  The next 
couple of weeks will indicate how well the new service is 
implemented and provide insight on whether HMG's strategies 
are working. 
 
Visit London's Classified Website: 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Unit ed_Kingdom 
 
LeBaron