VZCZCXRO4336
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0862/01 2040617
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 230617Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4136
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000862 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: PERMANENT COURT OF ARBITRATION DECISION CHANGES ABYEI 
BOUNDARIES 
 
¶1. (SBU) 1. (SBU) Summary:  Special Envoy Gration, Charge Whitehead, 
as well as representatives from the EU, UN and Assessment and 
Evaluation Commission (AEC), went to Abyei on July 22 for the 
announcement of The Hague's Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) 
decision on the province's border demarcation.   The PCA ruled that 
in reviewing the Abyei Border Commission (ABC) Panel of Experts 
original demarcation, the latter had committed errors in the 
implementation of its mandate.  In its role as arbitrator, the PCA 
changed the eastern and western boundaries of the pivotal  province, 
and revised the shared-rights areas of Abyei.  The PCA found that 
the northern border limit along 10'10' latitude is correct as drawn 
and will not change.  Likewise, the southern boundary of Abyei is 
also correct, and will not be altered.  Following the PCA's 
announcement of its decision, SE Gration's delegation met with 
tribal Missseryia leaders in Meriam and Muglad, who reaffirmed their 
acceptance of the ruling.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The SPLM had optimistically believed for months that the 
ABC Panel of Experts decision would be completely upheld.  For this 
reason, the PCA's decision was disappointing.   However, it is 
expected that both the NCP and SPLM will abide by terms of today's 
PCA decision,  which lays the foundation for an altered 
"oil-landscape" in a post-2011 Sudan.  The decision decreased the 
territory of Abyei, and the GOSS shifted some oil fields into 
Sudan's North.  Heglig (19,900 bpd yield in 2007) and Bamboo oil 
fields now reside in Sudan's "North," as do portions of the Toma 
fields (although GOSS officials reached on July 22 believed this 
could be altered.) Should the South opt for independence in 2011, 
with Abyei voting to join it, profits from these fields would be 
withheld - whereas they currently contribute to the South's share of 
oil proceeds as established by the CPA.(NOTE: Diffra stays in Abyei, 
producing 13,800 bpd yield. END NOTE.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) Overall, the PCA decision reduced the area of Abyei by 
3,000 square miles.  The PCA upheld the concept of shared areas 
between the Misseriya and Ngok Dinka, but it eliminated the ABC 
Panel of Experts line at 10'22'30, a sizeable reduction in the 
territory of Abyei.  Although the PCA's rule ends nearly four years 
of impasse over Abyei following the north's rejection of the ABC 
decision,  nearly twenty-percent of the North/South border remains 
contested, and final resolution rests with the SPLM and NCP. The 
northwest border of Unity State (which is the shared Eastern border 
of Abyei, now altered by the PCA), will be demarcated by the Ad-Hoc 
Technical Border Commission, making what was previously merely a 
dispute between Unity State authorities and the Abyei Administration 
a North/South issue. Although unlikely to be supported by Khartoum, 
the CPA's Ad Hoc Technical Border Commission could propose a 
boundary revision along the Unity State/Southern Kordofan divide 
that places Heglig in the South once more. 
 
¶4. (SBU) GOSS Vice President Riek Machar told Poloff that he 
expected the border commission's "final report" to be complete by 
the end of July, and ready for review by the SPLM and NCP political 
leadership.  Six specific areas along the 156 North/South border 
remain disputed. "We are trying to learn from the mistakes made in 
the census, and move this quickly away from the technocrats."  GNU 
State Minister for Humanitarian Affairs praised the decision before 
local media. "There is no distinct line between Dinka and Misseriya 
in this area. People are intermingling. They reflect the unity of 
Sudan. We are looking to this area as a starting point for the 
referendum of 2011. This will be the focal point where Sudan starts 
to unite." 
 
¶5. (SBU) GOSS President Salva Kiir Mayardit held a press conference 
in Juba on July 22 in which he praised the PCA decision as one which 
"rebuilt the foundation for the extension of a comprehensive peace 
in Sudan," and he noted with appreciation the NCP's public comments 
on the decision.  Kiir called on "all citizens of Abyei" to help 
with the implementation of the decision, noting that "warmongers who 
seek to divide Ngok Dinka and Misseriya as a result of this decision 
have not felt the sting of a bullet, and are not worthy of 
leadership."   Sudan People's Liberation Army representatives 
reported to Poloff on July 22 that the situation in Abyei remains 
quiet.  They reported a sizeable Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) 
movement on July 212  on the fringe of Abyei, but no SAF incursions 
across the border.  Because the Diffra oil field now belongs 
conclusively in Abyei, the SAF troops based seven kilometers south 
of Difra must also move. 
 
¶6. (SBU) SE Gration said to international and local press following 
the PCA award: "I am very optimistic ... I had an opportunity to 
drive through Abyei and see the changes. The new building, the new 
construction, the repairs that have been done. I have also had an 
opportunity to spend the last month talking to senior members and 
 
KHARTOUM 00000862  002 OF 002 
 
 
leaders of the SPLM and the NCP, and ... I'm optimistic.  The 
commitments ... will be carried out in deed and this arbitration 
decision will be fully implemented.  The border will be demarcated 
and the Dinka and the Misseriya will live for a long time in peace." 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) The Special Envoy and CDA visited the predominantly 
Misseriya towns of Merian and Muglad following the decision. 
Although some leaders especially in the latter expressed 
disappointment with the PCA ruling, all pledged to abide by it. 
Post will provide via septel more detailed reporting. 
 
 
WHITEHEAD