VZCZCXRO5164
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0807/01 1831341
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 021341Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4039
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000807 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/E, DRL 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ELAB KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: NCP AND SPLM NEGOTIATE REFORM LEGISLATION; CONSENSUS ON A 
 
REFERENDUM LAW WILL REQUIRE A U.S. PUSH 
 
REFS:  A. Khartoum 794 
¶B. Khartoum 240 
¶C. Khartoum 060 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  National Congress Party (NCP) parliamentarian and 
political heavyweight Ibrahim Ghandour and Government of National 
Unity (GNU) State Minister of Justice Wek Mamer Kuol (of the Sudan 
People's Liberation Movement) told poloffs that while the National 
Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC) is brokering negotiations of 
the Southern Sudan Referendum Law, the two parties still will have 
to work out some of the sticking points bilaterally.  While 
determining voter eligibility and the make-up of the Referendum 
Commission remain in dispute, new issues of disagreement have 
arisen, such as what percentage of the vote will be required to 
determine secession versus unity, and whether there will be one or 
two ballot boxes at each polling site.  There is still not full 
consensus on the Trade Union Act, which the two parties continue to 
debate.  Although the parties have not agreed on the content of the 
National Security Law, it has been moved forward to the GNU Council 
of Ministers.  End Summary. 
 
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE REFERENDUM BILL CONTINUE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
2.(SBU) On June 29, poloffs met separately with influential NCP 
parliamentarian and Sudan Workers Trade Union Federation President 
Ibrahim Ghandour and GNU State Minister of Justice Wek Mamer Kuoal 
of the SPLM to discuss pending national legislation, in particular 
the Southern Sudan Referendum Law.  The parties have battled over 
the draft law behind closed doors for months and, making little 
progress, agreed to allow the NCRC to facilitate negotiation on the 
crucial bill (ref A). 
 
¶3. (SBU) Ghandour, who is part of the NCP's inner circle, is the 
lead NCP negotiator on the Referendum bill.  He told poloffs that 
the NCRC is making progress with the parties to reach consensus on 
the law, and stated that there are "not big differences" remaining 
between the NCP and SPLM on key points.  The plan, according to 
Ghandour, is for a team of 15 individuals from various parties 
(including the SPLM and the NCP,) facilitated by the NCRC, to 
discuss the bill in its entirety and reach a consensus on the 
majority of it (ref A).  Ghandour said that the main sticking 
points, such as voter eligibility, the composition of the Referendum 
Commission, and powers given to the Referendum Commission Juba 
Office, will be discussed by two principal representatives from the 
SPLM and the NCP separately and agreed-upon accordingly.  The NCP 
rep also said that his party no longer insists that adoption of the 
Referendum Law be directly linked to the determination of 
post-referendum arrangements between the North and the South (nor 
that they be included in the Referendum Law).  He did say, however, 
that post-Referendum arrangements will have to be decided before the 
Referendum takes place and noted that there is already an NCP-SPLM 
team at work on this. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Ghandour identified two new sticking points between the 
SPLM and the NCP on the Referendum law.  The SPLM argues that a 
Referendum decision for the South to secede be made by a simple 
majority vote, while the NCP prefers that it require a vote of 75 
percent or more.  Poloff questioned Ghandour as to why not a 
position of two-thirds (instead of 75 percent); "you have to start 
at a position that allows for eventual compromise," he laughed, 
suggesting that the two parties will find common ground somewhere in 
the middle. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Ghandour also said that the NCP's desires that there be 
one ballot box in each polling station and one ballot upon which a 
voter makes his/her choice for separation or unity.  The SPLM, on 
the other hand, wants there be two ballot boxes in each polling 
station, one that is clearly marked "unity" and another 
"separation."  Ghandour balked at the idea of two ballot boxes 
saying that no voter will be able to cast his vote in secret in such 
a situation, which he said was unfortunately demonstrated in the 
election of former President Nimeiry in the early '80s. 
 
¶6. (SBU) In a separate meeting with poloffs, State Minister of 
Justice Wek (SPLM) defended the SPLM's positions on the Referendum 
Law.  He was adamant that unity or secession be decided by a simple 
majority.  He explained that it is critical that there be two 
distinct ballot boxes in the Referendum vote, with signs and symbols 
on each box clearly indicating "separation" or "unity."  Given the 
high rate of illiteracy in the South, voters must be absolutely 
clear about their choice, he explained.  Furthermore, Minister Wek 
suggeted that the SPLM is wary of one ballot box in each polling 
station because of the ability to manipulate the results within the 
box - something which the SPLM expects the NCP to try to do. 
 
KHARTOUM 00000807  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) The State Minister also raised some troubling requests by 
the NCP.  According to Wek, the NCP has asked that members of the 
Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), Salah Ghosh's intelligence forces (NISS), 
and the National Police Force move south to keep the peace during 
the Referendum.  Wek noted that this would violate the Interim 
National Constitution and the CPA, and would surely be a "dangerous" 
thing for the Government of Southern Sudan and its people.  "They 
[the NCP] are looking for a way to manipulate the whole process," 
said Wek. 
 
PROGRESS ON OTHER NATIONAL LEGISLATION 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶8. (SBU) The SPLM and the NCP still disagree on reform of the Trade 
Union Law.  According to Ghandour, they have agreed to 21 out of 23 
points on reformed law, but disagree on the right to create of 
multiple unions in one state or industry (refs B and C).  The NCP 
would like the unions to remain as they are, stream-lined to one per 
state, one per industry and all organized under the umbrella of the 
Trade Union Federation (which Ghandour heads).  The SPLM, on the 
other hand, prefers workers to be able to freely create unions that 
are not so tightly controlled or centralized. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Poloffs asked Minister Wek for his thoughts on the final, 
reformed version of the media/press law, which was agreed upon by 
the parties and ratified in Parliament in early June.  Although it 
is an improvement over the prior law, it was also "a compromise," he 
sighed.  [Note:  international media watchdog groups have criticized 
the reformed law as retaining oppressive measures on the freedom of 
the press/media.  End note.]  On the National Security Law, Wek said 
that the SPLM and the NCP could not reach a compromise on the powers 
of the intelligence service (particularly of arrest, seizure of 
assets, and searchs) and "agreed to disagree," by submitting the 
current draft, which allows NISS many of its current powers, to the 
Council of Ministers for approval (ref A). 
 
NCP ON USG ROLE IN SUDAN 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶10. (SBU) Ghandour told poloffs that NCP Presidential Advisor Ghazi 
Salah Eddin briefed him on June 28 on the CPA Conference in 
Washington, DC and the U.S.-facilitated trilaterals.  He said that 
Salah Eddin was "very happy" with the visit, and reported that the 
NCP feels that there is room to make progress on U.S.-Sudan 
bilateral relations.  Ghandour recommended to poloffs that for the 
U.S. to play a full mediation role on Darfur and North-South issues, 
it continue to work towards the normalization of U.S.-Sudan 
relations "step by step."  Concerning Darfur, he said that the U.S. 
should push for a normalization of Sudan-Chad relations, a 
unification of the political position of the Darfur rebels, and a 
respected cease-fire. 
 
¶11. (SBU) In dealing with the SPLM, Ghandour recommended that the 
U.S. put its full support behind SPLM Chairman and GoSS President 
Salva Kiir Mayardit.  Ghandour stated that it is critically 
important for the U.S. to work directly with Kiir in order to 
bolster his confidence.  Kiir has "failed to manage" a powerful 
group of SPLM members, including Secretary General Pagan Amum, 
Deputy Secretary Yasir Arman, and others, who routinely reach out to 
the U.S. for support, Ghandour argued.  For the U.S. to deal 
effectively with the SPLM, said Ghandour, it must work primarily 
with Kiir. 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
¶12. (SBU) Reaching consensus on reformed national legislation and a 
Southern Sudan Referendum Bill continues to be a difficult task for 
the NCP and the SPLM.  Time is running out for Parliament to ratify 
critical legislation (its next session is October-December 2009) 
before it is dissolved and elections take place.  The U.S. should 
continue to encourage the parties to reach consensus on legislation 
that allows credible elections and a well-prepared, free and fair 
Southern Sudan Referendum to occur.  Without a concerted push, the 
NCP will continue to drag its feet and the SPLM will begin to 
sacrifice on truly reformed national level legislation so long as it 
can get its Referendum Law. 
 
WHITEHEAD