VZCZCXRO9845
RR RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #2105/01 2110616
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 300616Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0434
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 002105 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM 
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA 
USFOR-A FOR POLAD 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: USG GUIDANCE AND BACKGROUND REGARDING THE 
PROCESS OF AFGHANISTAN'S PREPARATIONS FOR THE AUGUST 
20 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 
 
¶1.  Summary:  This cable provides suggested guidance and background 
for USG discussions on the 2009 Afghan presidential and provincial 
council elections in advance of the August 20 polling day.  The 
guidance applies to U.S., Afghan, and international audiences. 
Paragraphs 2-4 outline the USG elections objectives and context. 
Paragraph 5 is a suggested senior U.S. official statement. 
Paragraphs 6-11 outline USG guidance.  Paragraphs 12-20 outline 
as-needed press guidance.  We shared and received comments from 
ISAF, UNAMA, Canada, and the UK.  We copied it to the EU Observer 
Mission for their information. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Overarching USG Elections Objectives and Context 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2.  The USG is pursuing four objectives related to the Afghan 
Elections: (1) Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission (IEC) 
leads preparations and conducts secure, credible, and inclusive 
presidential and provincial council elections on August 20, 2009; 
(2) the people of Afghanistan understand their rights, support the 
elections, register to, and exercise their right to vote; (3) The 
United States and international partners, working through the United 
Nations and ISAF, actively contribute to strengthening the capacity 
of Afghan institutions and mechanisms required to protect the 
credibility, security, and inclusivity of the elections to take 
place on August 20, 2009.  This includes working toward a "level 
playing field" for all candidates; (4) the people of Afghanistan 
understand that the U.S. will remain impartial, neither opposing nor 
supporting any particular Afghan Presidential or Provincial Council 
candidate.  The U.S. interest is that Afghans exercise their right 
to elect their own leadership. 
¶3.  In spite of the difficult security conditions, Afghans have 
shown a strong commitment to the elections taking place; 41 
candidates initiated a campaign for the Presidency, more than 3200 
candidates are seeking Provincial Council positions, and 17 million 
people throughout the country are registered to vote.  The number of 
presidential candidates has decreased as candidates drop out of the 
race and endorse an opponent. (The current number is 40.  One other 
has publically withdrawn, but not completed the formalities.)  All 
public statements should reflect this situation. 
¶4.  In support of the objectives, the US has outlined efforts worth 
approximately $260 million to support the Presidential and 
Provincial Council election efforts this year. The total breaks down 
as follows:  The U.S. provided $65 million to the UN Development 
Program (UNDP) for voter registration for Afghanistan's 2009 
elections and another $55 million in FY09 Economic Support Funds 
(ESF) to UNDP to support election costs. Through our traditional 
implementing partners, such as NGOs, we have committed an additional 
$115 million for voter outreach, voter education, political party 
development, IEC security, and Afghan elections process capacity 
building and are in the process of approving nearly $25 million for 
election observation and logistics. 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Recommendation for a Senior U.S. Official Statement 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶5.  Suggested text of a Senior U.S. official statement (on/about 
August 6) 
In two weeks the polls open in Afghanistan's presidential elections, 
the first they have led and the first fully contested elections in 
their history.  Significantly, after decades of violence, Afghans 
will choose their future government by the ballot.  They have held 
substantive debates on issues of importance to all Afghans; they 
have investigated and punished allegations of misbehavior during the 
campaign; and they have, to the extent possible, provided for the 
security of the maximum number of voters in all parts of the 
country.  The United States will work with the Afghan government, 
Coalition, ISAF, and International forces, the United Nations and 
the rest of the international community to ensure a credible, 
inclusive and secure election.  We call on Afghan citizens to 
fulfill their democratic responsibility to choose their next 
government. 
----------------- 
Public Guidelines 
----------------- 
 
¶6.  US Government elements must not project assessments ahead of 
time about the credibility, security, or inclusivity of the Afghan 
elections.  As an Afghan-led election, Afghan institutions, 
including the Independent Election Commission (IEC), the Electoral 
Complaints Commission (ECC), and Electoral Media Commission (EMC), 
along with the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are capable 
of, and responsible for, ensuring these elements.  Only the IEC can 
officially announce results.  The international community supports 
these Afghan institutions. 
 
¶7.  US Government must avoid predicting a winner of the presidential 
 
KABUL 00002105  002 OF 004 
 
 
election.  Only the IEC can announce results. It will formally do so 
after they have tallied the votes and adjudicated complaints; any 
premature "calling" of the election will prejudice this process. As 
President Obama outlined, "each nation gives life to democracy in 
its own way, grounded in the traditions of its own people. The 
United States does not support or oppose any particular Presidential 
or Provincial Council candidate. Instead, we support the right of 
the people of Afghanistan to choose their own leaders." 
 
¶8.  In the event of a severe security or political incident, such as 
the death of a candidate or attempt to change elections scheduling 
or framework before the election, any comments should focus on the 
obligation of the Afghan government and institutions to follow the 
Constitution and laws.  The death of a candidate before the election 
does not invalidate the election.  These topics should not generally 
be discussed openly as possibilities or likelihoods. 
 
¶9.  Embassy believes the senior US official statement (Para 5) 
should be released on August 6, two weeks before voting, for maximum 
effect in Afghanistan and elsewhere.  As-needed press guidance on 
issues of irregularity in preparations or security follows, and will 
be updated on a weekly basis. 
 
¶10.  Embassy expects NGOs to complete and publicly release 
approximately four nationwide public opinion surveys and eight 
qualitative surveys from August 5 to August 15, 2009.  These 
surveys, including expected horse race statistics obtained in July, 
will likely affect the overall campaign environment. 
 
¶11.  IEC, UN, The Government Media and Information Center (GMIC), 
international donors, Coalition Forces, ISAF and Embassy 
representatives are working on a coordinated crisis communication 
plan that outlines talking points for irregular elections issues, 
such as elections related theft or attacks.  Embassy will forward 
this information with appropriate elaboration NLT August 10. 
 
------------------------- 
As-needed press guidance: 
------------------------- 
 
¶12. Who is leading the election effort?  Are they doing a good job? 
 
A:  Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission is, for the first 
time, leading the administration of the coming elections, the first 
truly contested election in Afghan history.  Are they doing a good 
job?  Yes, they are doing a good job under very difficult 
conditions.  It is a tough job to hold an election in wartime.  The 
success of voter registration, the ability of the IEC to make their 
supply timelines, and limited violence related to the election 
demonstrate significant progress.  In addition to the IEC, all of 
the Afghan institutions involved are pulling their share.  The 
Afghan Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Defense, and National 
Directorate of Security (NDS) are working countrywide, coordinating 
effectively across their offices and with the international 
community, ISAF, and Coalition forces to plan for the security 
challenges faced.  Only the IEC can announce official results. 
Significantly, the elections represent a mechanism to support a 
peaceful transition or evolution of power in the country.  This is a 
distinct change from Afghanistan's recent history where violence was 
the only means.  As an impartial actor, the international 
community's role has been to offer resources and expertise to help 
the IEC implement secure, credible, and inclusive elections and 
build the capacity of Afghan institutions, including the ANSF. 
Instrumental to ensuring IEC impartiality, the Afghan and 
International media, United Nations, and the international community 
will monitor the IEC's activities to ensure their impartiality. 
¶13.  How many polling sites are there - aren't there issues about 
closing sites and disenfranchising Pashtun voters? 
 
A:  The last Presidential election, organized by the International 
Community, used only 4807 polling centers.  The number of centers 
this time far exceeds those open in 2004. 
 
The IEC will open over [5000 - number will grow as decisions are 
made] polling centers, covering all 34 provinces, and is on schedule 
with supplying these centers with election materials.   The IEC has 
not yet determined the final number of polling centers because they 
continue to consider expansion to additional locations.  In some 
cases, the IEC is still reviewing the exact location of polling 
centers because of technical or nearby security considerations.  The 
location and final number of the polling centers will be publicized 
in early August when the preparations are finalized, but still early 
enough to inform voters and supply the centers successfully. 
 
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Security 
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KABUL 00002105  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶14. Will the elections take place?  There is a war going on, 
especially in the South. 
 
A:  We expect, and all indications are the elections will take place 
as scheduled on August 20, 2009.  ANSF, ISAF, International and 
Coalition Forces, and the IEC have cooperated and planned 
extensively to help ensure the Afghan government can implement 
effective measures to provide safety for the Afghan voters.  ANSF 
and ISAF have assessed polling center locations and held coordinated 
- inter-Afghan agency- local and nationwide exercises with ISAF to 
ensure readiness for Election Day. 
Any attacks on the elections process is an attack on the Afghan 
people.  Ongoing violence caused by enemies of peace is a concern 
for everyone.  In addition to, and in cooperation with ANSF security 
plans, many local leaders have announced intentions to safeguard 
their community and the people's right to vote. 
----------- 
Credibility 
----------- 
 
¶15.  What measures are in place to prevent or reduce fraud? 
 
A:  The credibility of the Afghan elections will be determined by 
the Afghan leaders and the people who share the responsibility of 
protecting their rights and safeguarding the process. The IEC is 
planning to meet and overcome any election obstacles, such as 
misplaced or damaged ballots, to ensure the rights of all Afghans 
are respected. 
¶16.  Exactly what can the Afghan authorities do? 
 
A: The IEC has planned numerous measures to deter and detect fraud 
in the time leading to, during and following the election.  These 
measures include the use of indelible ink, local counting and 
publication of ballots cast, redundant tracking of results, random 
nationwide audits of voting results to detect irregularities, 
accreditation of candidate agents, and thousands of domestic and 
international observers.  However, no country is immune from 
attempts at election fraud and no electoral safeguard is foolproof. 
The goal is to have structures and procedures in place to deter and 
minimize such fraud. 
¶17.  Aren't the enforcement mechanisms toothless? 
 
A:  The Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) continues to 
investigate complaints against the process and about candidates. 
There are many rumors and accusations of potential wrong doing.  The 
ECC is working within its authorities and legal provisions to 
investigate and adjudicate these issues.  Since initiating 
operations, the ECC has imposed sanctions for violations of 
electoral laws, including fines and disqualification of candidates. 
In this adjudication process, the sanctioned parties are named 
publicly which provides further deterrence.  The ECC is expanding 
its staff and nationwide presence.  Technical experts are working 
with the ECC to improve its adjudication speed, and it continues to 
operate in a lawful and balanced manner.  The ECC is the only entity 
with the authority to review and adjudicate electoral violations and 
all possible cases should be documented and passed to the ECC for 
investigation. Individuals can also raise a complaint and urge the 
ECC to initiate an investigation into it on its own.  It's important 
to remember the complaints must be verifiable.  Understandably, the 
ECC can not take action on accusation alone. 
¶18. What about media bias in favor of President Karzai? 
 
A:  It is a fact that the sitting president enjoys important media 
advantages which accrue to incumbents in all electoral systems. 
With that said, all Presidential candidates in Afghanistan have had 
or will have the opportunity to appear in the media through radio, 
TV or print interviews, roundtables, and discussions.  In addition 
to private and state media efforts to this goal, the Electoral Media 
Commission (EMC) is conducting a sponsored advertising program, 
which ensures that Presidential candidates and their views are aired 
before radio and TV audiences countrywide. 
The EMC also actively monitors nationwide print, radio, and TV media 
broadcasts and has been diligent in publishing its findings, without 
fear or favor, and working within its authority to mitigate 
disparities.  In the publication of its weekly media monitoring 
analysis, the EMC both criticizes and commends publically Afghan 
media sources for the equity of its coverage.  The EMC analysis is 
subsequently adopted by Afghan and international media 
representatives and used in further scrutiny of the process. 
Independent media, both Afghan and international, are instrumental 
in realizing the credibility of the elections.  By documenting and 
reporting on issues, scrutinizing rumors, and reportng accurately 
they also support the process.  Afghan and international media 
representatives plan to cover the elections countrywide. 
------------ 
Inclusivity 
 
KABUL 00002105  004 OF 004 
 
 
------------ 
 
¶19.  President Karzai and others say that the Pashtun vote will be 
suppressed, which could affect the credibility and outcome of the 
vote.  Is this true? 
 
A:  There are many, many more polling centers this year than the 
4,800 of the first Afghan Presidential election in 2004.  From 
October 2008-February 2009, Afghans supported the process of voter 
registration and registered to vote country wide with little 
associated violence. Afghans, regardless of ethnicity, will have the 
opportunity to vote if they choose to do so. 
Afghan leaders at all levels, including presidential candidates, 
have the obligation to ensure their country men and women have the 
opportunity to vote.  The inclusivity and credibility of the poll 
will rely on Afghan leaders' character and honesty, as it does in 
all countries. 
¶20. What is the other election about? 
 
Thousands of Provincial Council candidates are also campaigning for 
office to help manage the local affairs of each of Afghanistan's 34 
provinces.  The Afghan people must decide who is best qualified for 
the positions.  With nearly 3,200 candidates, including 328 women, 
vying for 420 seats, they have never before had such a wide choice. 
EIKENBERRY