VZCZCXRO4382
RR RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #2010/01 2040753
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 230753Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0325
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002010 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM 
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA 
USFOR-A FOR POLAD 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT:  Provincial Council Elections 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. The picture of Provincial Council (PC) elections across 
Afghanistan is diverse, and liveliest in the biggest provinces. 
Security concerns - of particular importance to female candidates - 
and lack of financing have the greatest impact on the level and type 
of campaign activities among the candidates.  Tribal politics, 
though difficult to observe overtly, undoubtedly will have 
significant influence on the outcome of the PC elections.  Many 
candidates appear to be waiting until the last possible moment to 
select a president candidate to endorse, on the expectation that 
reciprocal support will be forthcoming. 
 
Security A Major Obstacle 
to Overt Campaign Activity 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. Security is a major issue in many provinces, especially 
throughout southern and eastern Afghanistan and parts of the north. 
For example, in the northern province of Kunduz, security is the 
most challenging issue for PC candidates and prevents candidates 
from organizing public PC-oriented rallies.  Instead, candidates 
meet with people in small village gatherings and in shuras with 
village elders.  In some provinces, such as Gardez and Zabul, 
candidates are not traveling outside the provincial capitals or 
Kabul, instead asking village elders to come to them.   Kunduz, 
likewise, reports that it is considered high risk for candidates to 
travel to at least four districts for campaigning purposes is 
considered high risk and they maintain a low profile when talking to 
voters in those districts. 
 
¶3. We hear a similar story in Paktika and Khost provinces, where, 
aside from some posters of incumbents in the provincial capitals, 
there are no visible signs of campaigning.  Incumbents in both 
provinces rarely travel to their home districts or far beyond the 
capitals because of insecurity.  IEC District Field Coordinators 
(DFCs) from a number of districts in Khost report there is no 
evidence of campaigning in villages.  Though it is difficult for PRT 
reps to observe this activity directly, we believe most candidates 
plan to use their connections with tribal elders to gain votes. 
While many candidates are waiting until closer to the election to 
campaign in order to preserve scarce funds, there is almost 
universal consensus that fear of anti-government elements is the 
primary reason for the limited campaign activity in these areas. 
 
¶4. In contrast, more permissive Herat and Jalalabad are active 
political centers.  Thousands of posters and banners line the 
streets of Herat City, for both presidential and provincial council 
candidates.  Political rallies are common in Jalalabad.  Activity is 
reportedly rising even in remote provinces such as Ghor.  Posters 
are up in Ghor's provincial capital of Chaghcharan, and there is 
active campaigning and competition in the districts.  While evidence 
of the election season is prominent, enthusiasm is subdued.  In the 
eastern province of Kunar, banners and posters decorate provincial 
capital Asadabad and many medium to large villages for many of the 
57 PC candidates, and the PRT reports there have been several 
rallies. 
 
Links to Presidential campaign 
and Influence of Tribal Politics 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5. Many of the provincial council candidates are reportedly 
affiliated with presidential candidates, especially Karzai and Dr. 
Abdullah, but PRT representatives overwhelmingly report that these 
links are difficult to confirm.  There are several examples of PC 
candidates admitting that, while they prefer a particular 
presidential candidate, their support could change if reciprocity is 
not offered.  Candidates, particularly incumbents, appear to have a 
strong preference  to wait until the "winner" is a foregone 
conclusion before endorsing a presidential candidate. 
 
¶6. The presidential race continues to dominate the political scene. 
In some provinces, such as Zabul, PC candidates have been seen 
campaigning for a presidential candidate at the same time as for 
themselves.  In Zabul, almost all of these candidates endorse Karzai 
and mention of their own candidacies appears as if an afterthought. 
 Zabul PC Chairman Haji Mohammed Hashim Grani, who is running for 
re-election, has referred to this practice as "killing two birds 
with one stone" and noted that PC candidates in Zabul wouldn't 
campaign for themselves only.  None of the Zabul PC members 
expressed support for the former Taliban presidential candidate Abdu 
Salam Raketi, who is an MP from Kabul. 
 
¶7. The perception from PRT reps is that voters will select their 
candidate according to tribal affiliations.  While some contacts 
connected with candidates admit this upfront, most skirt that issue 
or deny that tribal politics play a role. 
 
KABUL 00002010  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
 
Desire for Representative Government, 
and Other Reasons to Seek Office 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. The approximately 3200 candidates for 420 Provincial Council 
seats throughout the country are viewed as a testament to a nascent 
desire among Afghans for representative government.  However, in 
areas with active and muted campaign scenes alike, PRT reps caution 
that the population is not terribly energized by the PC race. 
Suspicion and apathy is high.  Although a number of candidates are 
passionate and want to make a difference, people are not necessarily 
seeking to change politics.  Additionally, Afghan citizens seem to 
have little understanding of the greater process. 
 
¶9.  There are several concrete reasons for the high number of 
candidates: 
 
- Provincial Councils are perceived many as influential positions 
and an opportunity to benefit from CERP and other development 
contracts. 
- Desire to expand influence of one's tribe in provincial government 
so as to bring benefits to home town/district. 
 - Incumbents who are able to run want to keep their positions. 
- Many candidates are running for PC as a stepping stone to 
parliament. 
- Certain tribes appear to be attempting to expand their influence 
through some PCs, such as those in Paktika, Paktya and Ghor.  Though 
there are differences, PCs in those and other provinces do not have 
representation from every tribe in their respective provinces. 
 
Female Candidates 
----------------- 
 
¶10. By law, one quarter of PC seats are set aside for women, and all 
but two of those 125 seats - in Uruzgan and Kandahar - have a 
potential candidate.  In some provinces, the number of female 
candidates registered matches the number of seats for women, while 
elsewhere many female candidates will contest only a few seats. 
Security is the biggest challenge for women who wish to campaign. 
Particularly in more conservative areas, it is difficult for women 
to appear in public outside the provincial capital.  However, there 
are examples, even in conservative Zabul, of the unveiled faces of 
female candidates on campaign posters.  There has been little to no 
visible public campaigning activity among female candidates. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11.  Only a month before elections, the Provincial Council 
candidates seem to be working behind the scenes.  Public campaign 
efforts are hampered by lack of financing everywhere, and by 
insecurity in large swaths of the country.  We expect to see 
increased campaign activities among the Provincial Council 
candidates as the elections draw closer, and as candidates agree to 
endorse one another. 
 
EIKENBERRY