VZCZCXRO6472
RR RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #1863/01 1950532
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 140532Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0143
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001863 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM 
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA 
USFOR-A FOR POLAD 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT:  Paktya: Presidential-PC Politics Intertwined 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Provincial Council (PC) and presidential 
campaigns are in full swing in Paktya.  Given poor security in the 
districts, most campaigning is occurring in the provincial capital 
of Gardez.  The majority of influential Paktyans say they will throw 
their support behind President Karzai, as they are sure he will be 
reelected, but few people are openly campaigning for him.  The 
current members of the PC are all running for reelection and are 
pooling resources to gain votes.  They have told PRT they plan to 
step in to direct Karzai's provincial campaign, but only if the 
President throws his support behind them.   End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) PRT rep discussed the Provincial Council (PC) campaign on 
July 8 with its three of its current members, who said they are 
working together to get re-elected.  The Paktyans' unified strategy 
is consistent with the way politics is practiced in this 
conservative and highly tribal part of the country.  By contrast, 
there is a less unified approach in Loya ("Greater") Paktya's other 
two provinces, Khost and Paktika. 
 
¶3.  (U) Campaigning for both the PC and the presidential election is 
taking place primarily in the provincial capital of Gardez, given 
the security constraints and reportedly widespread insurgent 
anti-election intimidation efforts outside the city.  The PRT has 
only seen campaign posters in Gardez.  The PC members tell us they 
are campaigning primarily by holding shuras in Gardez with tribal 
elders from across the province, hoping those elders will take a 
message of support back to their respective villages.  One member 
said that while the current PC feels it has let the people down in 
some ways, it has done the best it could given its extremely limited 
resources to represent peoples' interests.  However, he asserted 
that the performance of Paktya's PC has far exceeded those of most 
other provinces, and that the PC has commendations from Kabul to 
prove it. 
 
¶4. (U) Given the low level of overt political activity and lack of 
campaign headquarters, meeting with non-incumbent candidates is 
extremely difficult.  Even locally employed PRT staff say that many 
of the PC candidates are "unknowns" to the political scene.  Several 
candidates have complained, however, that they do not feel 
comfortable campaigning outside the capital.  At least two 
candidates from insurgent-filled Zormat district have reportedly 
suspended their campaigns due to intimidation. 
 
¶5. (U) More attention in the province is focused on the presidential 
election than the PC race.  Three candidates - President Karzai, 
Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, and Abdullah Abdullah - have regional offices 
established in Gardez.  Rallies among provincial leaders and tribal 
elders take one of two forms:  are either stridently critical of the 
current government or more restrained in promoting civic 
participation.  However, none of these events call explicitly for 
the election of any particular presidential candidate.  The 
reticence of leaders to throw their support publicly behind any 
individual candidate reflects the continuing jockeying for support 
behind the scenes. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Incumbent PC candidates told PRT July 8 that they are 
prepared to assume control of the reelection effort for Karzai, on 
the condition that he reciprocate public support for them.  If 
Karzai would not back them, they said they would support Ghani or 
Abdullah, but said they preferred to support Karzai.  That stance is 
consistent with most provincial leaders, who expect Karzai to win 
Paktya. 
 
¶6. (U) Despite reports that certain provincial leaders are working 
for Karzai, few people admit to working actively on his behalf. 
Most appear to be waiting until the last moment in case another 
candidate takes the lead.  One exception is Wolesi Jirga Member 
Gulpacha Majidi, who was in Paktya recently and rebutted the most 
common arguments among Paktyans regarding the failure of the current 
administration.  There are other exceptions among prominent 
Paktyans. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Others who are reportedly working for Karzai are more coy, 
including Governor Hamdard.  During an early July conversation, 
Hamdard held his cards close.  The only substantive comment he 
allowed himself was a question, slyly asking whether we expect a 
first-round winner in the election.  His query suggests anticipates 
a Karzai victory, with his only remaining question now being by how 
wide a margin. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment:  In Paktya, all signs point to President Karzai 
carrying the day.  Most likely, the current members of the 
Provincial Council will also do well, though that is less certain 
given their low-profile campaign strategies.  The preference for 
traditional politicking and the limits on public campaigning outside 
the capital lend an air of obscurity to the elections, which are now 
less than six weeks away. 
 
 
KABUL 00001863  002 OF 002 
 
 
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