VZCZCXRO4455
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #1714/01 1830244
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 020244Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9820
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 001714 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM 
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA 
USFOR-A FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION POLLING PLANS 
 
REF: A. SECSTATE 62422 
     ¶B. KABUL 1557 
     ¶C. KABUL 1506 
 
¶1.  This is the sixth in a series of cables updating and 
providing additional details on Embassy plans and efforts in 
support of the Afghan presidential and provincial council 
elections, per the request in reftel.  This cable addresses 
post efforts on pre-election polling. 
 
------------------- 
IRI Elections Polls 
------------------- 
 
¶2.  USAID will sponsor two nationwide polls through IRI, 
similar to the one released in mid-June.  IRI plans to have 
the polls in the field (approximately 60 questions each with 
a sample size of around 3,200) during July and will present 
them before August 20th.  In conjunction with these polls, 
IRI is sponsoring two focus groups in July and will present 
the results in August.  IRI uses the polling company Williams 
and Associates which works with Lapis Research and Kabul 
Group to conduct their fieldwork.  Potential IRI focus group 
topics are undetermined at this point. 
 
¶3.  In the event of a runoff, IRI plans to run one nationwide 
poll and one focus group before the second round of voting in 
October.  Both the poll and the focus group will be similar 
to those described above.  At this time, IRI has no polling 
planned for 2010 parliamentary elections. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Glevum Elections Research & Focus Groups 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Using an existing contract for election support with 
IFES, USAID is also sponsoring two Glevum Associates 
nationwide polls using the Afghan Center for Socio-Economic 
and Opinion Research (ACSOR) to conduct the fieldwork.  The 
Glevum polls will include samples of 3,400 Afghans and 
approximately 20 questions.  The questionnaire covers 
presidential candidate ratings and favorability, provincial 
issues, provincial council role, local governance and 
influence, and the perception of credible, secure, and 
inclusive polling.  Both surveys will go to the field in 
July, two-weeks apart.  Glevum will return the results of the 
first poll on August 5.  It will return the second poll on 
August 15.  The Glevum poll will also have an educational 
aspect, since the pollsters will use a paper in the style of 
the ballot to show candidates' pictures and symbols to elicit 
favorability ratings of each candidate. 
 
¶5.  Glevum will also run eight focus groups in mostly Pashtun 
dominated provinces:  Farah, Helmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, 
Ghazni, Zabul, Paktika, and Nangarhar.   The Glevum focus 
groups will bring shura members from several districts 
together to talk about regional issues, potential solutions, 
and relevant candidate platforms.  The Pashtun regions were 
selected because of their strong support for Karzai in the 
last election, IRI assessed decline in support for Karzai, 
and perceived influence in the coming election as the 
dominant ethnic group. Glevum focus groups will be conducted 
in July with results available during the first week of 
August. 
 
--------------------- 
INR Elections Polling 
--------------------- 
 
¶6.  State/Intelligence and Research (INR) will conduct two 
nationwide polls (4,000 and 6,000 respondents) before the 
election.  Results from INR's June survey, conducted by 
ACSOR, will be available in late July. It includes open 
questions about presidential candidates and favorability 
ratings for several candidates and non candidates.  Results 
from INR's July survey will be available in early August. 
The July questionnaire remains in development but will 
include roughly 40 closed-ended and 10 open-ended questions. 
INR will likely award the July contract to either ACSOR or 
the Opinion Research Center of Afghanistan (ORCA) to conduct 
fieldwork.  For all of its surveys, INR obtains the data sets 
from the field firm and analyzes the results internally. 
 
------------- 
Other Polling 
------------- 
 
¶7.  ISAF's Afghanistan Assessments Group (AAG) expects the 
 
KABUL 00001714  002 OF 003 
 
 
return of its nationwide quarterly survey in early July.  The 
survey covers a range of issues beyond elections but includes 
questions about voter registration and likelihood of voting 
on August 20.  RC-East is conducting regional elections 
polling and expects the results in July.  This poll includes 
a question about the extent to which the respondent will 
support the elected government if their preferred candidate 
does not win. 
 
¶8.  CSTC-A is also conducting nationwide polling focused on 
security  and related to the ISAF AAG poll.  It also includes 
some elections registration and process questions.  Its 
results are expected in mid-August. 
 
¶9.  USAID also sponsors The Asia Foundation poll, which is an 
annual poll of overall conditions in Afghanistan focused on 
attitudes toward democracy and rule of law.  Although the 
poll will be in the field throughout the summer, its results 
are not expected until October 2009. 
 
¶10.  The Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) will conduct a 
nationwide survey (of approximately 2,200 Afghans) in 
September focused on political views and media use.  The BBG 
works with Intermedia to supervise their surveys, which in 
turn works with a local field firm (in the past, ACSOR) to 
conduct its fieldwork.  BBG expects results from its next 
survey in early October.  In case of a second round of 
elections, the poll will likely cover elections topics. 
 
¶11.  Gallup will also conduct a national survey in July, 
supposedly including elections topics. They have used ORCA 
for previous surveys.  Discussions with UNAMA, UNDP-ELECT, 
and other diplomatic mission staff in Kabul reveals no 
additional polling plans are currently in place in advance of 
the election. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Polling Companies & Capabilities 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶12.  There are several polling companies, of varying 
capabilities, operating in Afghanistan: 1. The Afghan Center 
for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research (ACSOR Surveys or 
ACSOR) based in Kabul and managed by D3 Systems Inc. in 
Vienna, Virginia; 2. Opinion Research Center of Afghanistan 
(ORCA) based in Kabul; and 3. Williams and Associates, based 
in Salem, Massachusetts, which works with Lapis Research, 
based in the U.S. and Kabul Group, based in Kabul. 
 
¶13.  ACSOR has carried out the bulk of the nationwide surveys 
in Afghanistan since 2004.  ORCA, which is run and staffed by 
several former ACSOR employees, has worked most recently with 
Gallup.  Kabul Group has focused mainly on qualitative 
research in the past, but is currently developing its 
nationwide survey capacity in conjunction with Williams and 
Associates and Lapis Research.  This consortium is associated 
with Moby Media. 
 
¶14.  Each firm has local, full-time employees familiar with 
the area and rely on both male and female interviewers to 
obtain more comprehensive coverage.  Each firm translates 
questionnaires into Pashto and Dari to conduct interviews 
face-to-face in respondents' homes using their local 
interviewers who are familiar with the local dialect and 
culture.  However, the firms' sampling, interviewer training, 
quality control procedures, questionnaire design, and data 
entry and cleaning capacities differ. 
 
 
----------------- 
Evaluating Polls 
----------------- 
 
¶15.  Although public opinion surveys in Afghanistan are 
increasing in sophistication and number, many challenges 
remain for conducting surveys that meet international 
standards.  Beyond routine research challenges such as 
methodology or sample design, key obstacles in Afghanistan 
include limited on-the-ground experience with survey 
research; extensive damage to infrastructure 
(roads/telecommunication) which impedes access to the rural 
population; insecurity/violence; a high level of illiteracy; 
and cultural and religious values that sometimes hinder 
access to women, promote biased (regional or ethnic) or 
socially desirable responses.  Exacerbating the difficulty of 
designing and evaluating studies is the lack of definitive 
population data, as Afghanistan has not conducted a national 
census since 1979. 
 
KABUL 00001714  003 OF 003 
 
 
EIKENBERRY