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OO RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHDT RUEHGI RUEHJS RUEHKUK
RUEHLH RUEHPB RUEHPW RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHJA #1160/01 1901037
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 091037Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2779
INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNISL/ISLAMIC COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001160 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP 
NSC FOR J. BADER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT YUDHOYONO BASKS IN GLOW OF BIG VICTORY 
 
REF: JAKARTA 1157 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1.  (U) This message is Sensitive but Unclassified -- Please 
handle accordingly. 
 
¶2.    (SBU) SUMMARY:  Voters gave President Yudhoyono a 
landslide victory, according to preliminary results from 
quick counts, in Indonesia's presidential election on July 8. 
 Although official results are not expected until later this 
month, most Indonesians--completely confident about the quick 
counts--are already accepting the news as a fait accompli. 
That said, Megawati Sukarnoputri, who ran a distant second, 
has continued to claim (with little real vigor) that the 
election was flawed.  Vice President Kalla's camp, on the 
other hand, congratulated the President on his win.  Mission 
issued the statement contained in para 10 congratulating 
Indonesia on its vibrant democracy.  END SUMMARY. 
 
PRESIDENT'S BIG WIN 
 
¶3.    (SBU) It's Yudhoyono in a landslide!  President 
Yudhoyono won a deep and broad-based victory in the July 8 
presidential election.  He handily defeated his former boss 
and 2004 challenger, former president Megawati, who came in a 
distant second.  His vice president, Jusuf Kalla, who had 
attempted to rally support from Muslim groups, failed to 
translate this base into many votes.  His lackluster third 
place showing indicated that he did not even get full support 
from his own party, Golkar. 
 
¶4.   (U) Below are quick counts from three of the most 
respected survey institutes: 
 
Candidate             LSI     Puskaptis   LP3ES 
 
Yudhyono/Boediono     60.85     57.95     60.28 
Kalla/Wiranto         12.59     13.89     12.32 
Megawati/Prabowo      26.56     28.16     27.40 
 
LSI = Indonesian Survey Institute 
Puskaptis = Strategic Center for Development and Policy 
Review 
LP3ES = Institute for Social and Economic Research, 
Education, and Information 
 
QUICK COUNT MECHANICS 
 
¶5.    (SBU) Although official results are not expected until 
later this month, most Indonesians--confident about the quick 
counts--are already accepting the apparent Yudhoyono triumph 
as a fait accompli.  Survey institutes have used quick counts 
to predict election outcomes in Indonesia since 1999 and the 
practice became widely accepted during the 2004 elections. 
The National Democratic Institute and other groups consider 
the polling companies that do quick counts largely 
trustworthy. 
 
¶6.    (SBU) Indonesian institutes ran two types of quick 
counts during the recent election: exit polls and quick 
counts.  Exit polls, which are generally less reliable, are 
based on what people tell you about how they voted when they 
leave the polls.  Quick counts, (also called parallel vote 
tabulations) are based on what researchers observe. 
Observers watch as the votes are counted at a number of 
polling stations (chosen from a statistical sample) and 
report the numbers tabulated. 
 
¶7.    (SBU) For the first time, the Election Commission (KPU) 
implemented its own official quick count system with the 
support of the International Foundation for Elections.  The 
KPU implemented this pilot sms system at 20% of the 451,000 
polling stations.  The system transmitted over 18 million 
votes by sms (instant messaging) to the KPU.  These results 
closely parallel that of the quick counts. 
 
MIXED REACTIONS FROM MEGAWATI, KALLA 
 
¶8.    (SBU) Vice President Kalla basically conceded defeat 
not long after the polls closed, and the head of his campaign 
team issued an official message congratulating Yudhyono and 
Boediono (the President's VP running mate) on their apparent 
electoral success.  Kalla's dismal performance in the polls 
is likely to leave him open to challenges to his position as 
Golkar Party Chair.  It may also make for an uncomfortable 
end to the Yudhoyono-Kalla tenure (which lasts until October 
 
JAKARTA 00001160  002 OF 002 
 
 
when their joint term ends), though both Yudhoyono and Kalla 
have underlined that they plan to work together in the 
nation's interest. 
 
¶9.    (SBU) Megawati's team, on the other hand, denounced the 
elections as "flawed" and not transparent.  Megawati herself 
has made some meandering comments to this effect.  VP running 
mate Prabowo Subianto's brother Hashim announced that the 
campaign's examination of the voter list less than 24 hours 
before the elections revealed 4.6 million fictitious names. 
Megawati's campaign does not seem wholly committed to their 
claims, however, and it is not clear whether they might file 
an electoral complaint.  They have not sponsored any rallies 
or demonstrations.  The problem for the Megawati camp is that 
almost all credible organizations have basically labeled the 
election as largely free and fair. 
 
MISSION STATEMENT 
 
¶10.   (U) The Mission issued a statement in a press release 
on July 9.  The text is below: 
 
Begin text: 
 
We congratulate the government and people of Indonesia on a 
peaceful and orderly election.  This election has again 
demonstrated the commitment of Indonesians to their vibrant 
democracy.  We also congratulate President Yudhoyono on his 
apparent victory and look forward to building stronger 
relations between our two countries. 
 
End text. 
 
HUME