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Viewing cable 09ISLAMABAD1654, INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT IN PAKISTAN: TRANSITION TO

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09ISLAMABAD1654 2009-07-20 16:24 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Islamabad
VZCZCXRO1698
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #1654/01 2011624
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 201624Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3900
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0653
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0943
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 5255
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 2008
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 7615
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 6577
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 4078
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 9811
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 001654 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREF PREL PHUM EAID PGOV PTER PK
SUBJECT: INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT IN PAKISTAN:  TRANSITION TO 
RETURN 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  With the exception of expected further 
displacement from Waziristan, the current internal 
displacement from conflict-affected areas in Pakistan appears 
close to an end.  The government has signed on to principles 
of safe, voluntary, informed and dignified return and began 
on July 11 to facilitate the return home of the displaced to 
Malakand through a phased return plan based on area of 
origin.  Return to Buner, much of it spontaneous, is 
proceeding apace, and life in Buner is returning to normal 
although trading centers and main roads are more secure than 
more remote villages.  Humanitarian attention is turning to 
early recovery.  Vast areas of Swat, particularly to the 
north of Mingora, remain insecure, however, and while returns 
to Swat have begun, most Swatis and humanitarian assistance 
community representatives believe that conditions are not yet 
sufficiently secure to support a return to civilian life.  As 
the military moves to close in on Baitullah Mehsud in South 
Waziristan, displacement into D.I. Khan and Tank has not yet 
peaked.  Current displacement from South Waziristan is 
estimated at over 60,000.  Registration and humanitarian 
assistance for this displacement will be through the GOP and 
a local NGO, as the GOP will permit neither international 
humanitarian presence nor the establishment of camps.   End 
summary. 
 
--------------------- 
Displacement Overview 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Displacement in Pakistan first began in August 2008 
when nearly 100,000 people left Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies 
and the Lower Dir District.  This first displacement had 
reached approximately 556,000 when one of the world's 
fastest, largest displacements began in late April and early 
May, 2009 from Lower Dir, Buner and Swat as a result of 
military operations against the growing taliban presence in 
Northwest Frontier Province.  Estimates of the total number 
of displaced peaked at around 3 million (468,000 families), 
registered in a fast-track manner in immediate response to 
the humanitarian crisis.  A later verification process by the 
National Registration and Database Authority weeded out 
duplications, split family registrations, fraudulent 
registrations, those previously without national identity 
cards, and other anomalies and resulted in an initial figure 
of less than 2 million verified, registered, displaced 
(289,000 families).  The current total overall number of 
verified displaced individuals, as of July 14, is 
approximately 2.289 million, with another 10,000 to 20,000 
registrations remaining to be verified and a grievance 
process underway for those appealing the decision on their 
cases.  As of July 14, approximately 2.073 million verified, 
registered, displaced individuals are staying with host 
families, in schools and in spontaneous camps, and another 
216,173 are in 21 official camps. 
 
3.  (SBU) The Pakistani government at the federal and 
provincial levels and the humanitarian community worked 
together in May, June and July to ensure that all IDPs had 
access to food, shelter, medicines, water, sanitation and 
protection.  Despite difficulties and challenges, no IDP was 
left hungry, and there were no disease epidemics among the 
IDPs.  This enormous and successful humanitarian assistance 
operation was possible only because thousands of families 
across NWFP opened their homes to receive hundreds of 
thousands of families who were in search of shelter and 
sustenance.  Less than 15 percent of all registered IDPs 
resided in official camps; the rest availed themselves of the 
generosity of fellow Pakistanis.  The humanitarian assistance 
operation would also not have been a success without the 
disproportionately large funding role played by the United 
States.  In FY 2008 and in FY 2009, the USG has provided more 
than USD 171 million in assistance to conflict-affected 
populations in Pakistan. 
 
4.  (SBU)  In mid-May, the Government of Pakistan committed 
to provide a PKR 25,000 (USD 310) debit card to each 
displaced family.  Initial response to this commitment was a 
flood of attempted new IDP registrations.  After a brief 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001654  002 OF 004 
 
 
government-imposed break in registrations and a thorough 
verification process, however, the government began 
distributing these cards.  As of July 15, debit cards had 
been distributed to almost exactly half of the 289,000 
verified, registered displaced families. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Restricting Displaced Access to Benefits 
---------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) On June 16, the NWFP authorities issued a 
notification identifying as "Conflict Zones" specific union 
councils in Lower Dir, Upper Dir, Buner, Swat and Shangla 
"where there is an army operation or imminent fear of an 
operation."   According to the notification, only people 
"displaced in consequence of such fear" from these areas 
"will be deemed IDPs."    By July 6, the authorities had 
further reduced the areas from which IDPs could be newly 
registered to just 27 villages in the Charmang Valley of 
Bajaur, 25 villages in the Union council of Kabal in Swat, 
and 9 villages in the Union Council of Shamozai also in Swat. 
 
6.  (SBU) The humanitarian assistance community has expressed 
serious concern that this restriction in areas considered 
conflict-affected will result in the denial of benefits to 
those who may have left home out of understandable and 
genuine fear due to military operations in a neighboring 
union council.  A map of the Conflict Zones identified on 
June 16 shows areas in southern Buner not identified as 
conflict-affected, and even a non-confict area within Buner 
entirely surrounded by Conflict Zones.  There is also some 
concern that a cash-strapped government has limited the areas 
considered conflict-affected to limit its liability for 
payment of PKR 25,000 debit cards. 
 
7.  (SBU) As of July 17, both spontaneous and facilitated, 
voluntary IDP return was ongoing, while the situation in the 
camps was tense as many displaced families not only remained 
uncertain of the security conditions in their home areas but 
also waited, often ill-advisedly, for the government 
distribution of the debit cards.  In Jalozai camp, for 
example, only 9,500 of the 22,000 families at the camp have 
verified registrations and thus are entitled to the cards. 
 
8.  (SBU) A riot broke out in Yar Hussein Camp when the Camp 
Administrator informed IDPs, particularly those with 
unverified registrations, that they would receive their next 
World Food Program distribution in their home areas. 
Following this event, the UN has made and conveyed a policy 
decision that all IDPs in camps (whether or not their 
registration has been verified) will continue to receive food 
and all other humanitarian assistance normally provided in 
the camps. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Continued Needs of IDPs and Hosting Areas 
----------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) As return progresses, support will continue to be 
necessary for the small proportion of people who will remain 
displaced perhaps because home areas are still or newly 
affected by ongoing military operations, or because with the 
arrival of winter they cannot return to live in damaged or 
destroyed homes, or because they have not received the 
government's PKR 25,000 debit card or perhaps because 
conditions in camps or hosting arrangements are economically, 
socially, or politically more attractive than those in places 
of origin.  In addition, host communities, which have allowed 
IDPs to occupy nearly 4,000 school buildings (now empty 
during the school holidays), will require school buildings in 
approximately six weeks when more than 700,000 children of 
the host communities will need to go back to school.  As a 
result, alternative accommodation will need to be provided to 
nearly 180,000 IDPs if they have not returned home.  It 
remains to be seen the extent to which humanitarian 
assistance and movement of humanitarian assistance personnel 
will be constrained by security concerns following the 
attempted kidnapping and July 16 shooting death of UNHCR 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001654  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
personnel at Kacha Gari camp on the outskirts of Peshawar. 
 
------- 
Returns 
------- 
 
10.  (SBU) On July 11, 2009, the Government of NWFP and the 
humanitarian community came to an agreement on the core 
principles, guidelines and standards that would govern the 
return process.  The core of the resulting return policy 
framework, signed by the Provincial Relief Commissioner, on 
behalf of the Chief Secretary, and the head of UNHCR's 
Peshawar office, on behalf of the humanitarian community, is 
that the return of the IDPs should be voluntary, informed, 
dignified, safe and sustainable. On July 13, the NWFP 
authorities began implementation of a phased, facilitated 
return plan, with phases based on the area of origin of the 
displaced.  Return has run smoothly in its first few days. 
UNHCR has found the NWFP authorities to be cooperative, and 
there is no/no issue of forced return.  The UN has requested, 
however, that the NWFP government provide notification of 
which Union Councils are safe for return and civilian life, 
just as the government previously formally notified which 
Union Councils were classified as conflict-affected areas. 
The UN is very clear that it is not within its mandate to 
determine whether areas are safe for return and  that such a 
determination is rather a governmental responsibility.  The 
UN is looking similarly for determinations in relation to the 
Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies of FATA. 
 
11.  (SBU) UNHCR has agreed to assist and facilitate 
transportation.  It is providing resources to the NWFP 
Emergency Response Unit (ERU) to rent trucks and buses and is 
also assisting in documenting return in order to ensure 
protection.  UNHCR intends to have independent NGO monitors 
in the locations of return to monitor conditions, and it will 
assist with early recovery.  It is considering establishing 
linkages between IDP return and assistance that can be 
through the UN-GOP agreed program for refugee assisting and 
hosting areas (RAHA).  IDPs are permitted to take all their 
donated non-food items as well as their tent with them when 
they return.  UNHCR will provide non-food items to all those 
who have not received them and will supplement the non-food 
items kits of those who may need an additional or replacement 
item. 
 
12.  (SBU) On July 17, the spokesman of the NWFP Emergency 
Response Unit reported that the provincial authorities had 
thus far facilitated the return of 8,957 families.  The plan 
for facilitating return to Buner (where much spontaneous, 
voluntary return has already occurred) has five phases based 
on areas of return.  It targets 11,221 families of the 31,062 
IDP families of Buner origin and is scheduled to take 19 
days.  The phased return to Swat is also phased based on 
areas of return but begins first with those IDPs in official 
camps and then moves on to those with host families and in 
schools and spontaneous camps.  The return of Swat IDPs just 
from camps is scheduled in three phases over the period July 
13 ) 20, and each phase brings IDPs to homes further north 
than the previous phase.  General Nadeem told the Ambassador 
on July 16 that 23 percent of all IDPs had thus far returned 
to their home areas.  While 70 percent of those displaced 
from Buner have returned, only 2 percent of those displaced 
from Swat have done so. 
 
13.  (SBU)  According to the Prime Minister's original 
announcement that facilitated return would begin July 13, 
total repatriation was to take five to six weeks, although 
few in the humanitarian community believe this to be a 
reasonable time frame where Swat is concerned. 
International Committee of the Red Cross delegation head 
Pascal Cuttat has told the Embassy that other than certain 
areas in Mingora, nothing in Swat is safe, particularly in 
areas north of Mingora, and that there is a substantial 
militant presence in vast areas.  Surveys in the IDP camps 
have found that while virtually everyone in the camps wants 
to return home, more than half say it is too early and 
unsafe.  A USAID/OFDA assessment team found destruction to be 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001654  004 OF 004 
 
 
limited in the areas it surveyed in southern Swat but found 
destruction and insecurity to be more extensive in Mingora 
and areas to its north.  Return appeared to be robust and 
organized with many time-consuming checkpoints to ensure 
security. 
 
14.  (SBU) Both ICRC and the UN agencies believe that the 
return process to Swat will not be as easy or as fast as the 
government says.   In Buner, where the DCO estimates that 
return is already at 80 percent, the capital Daggar is seen 
by all as safe, although NGO staff members of Buner origin 
still express concern about safety in villages far off the 
main road.  The humanitarian assistance community is already 
staging to provide early recovery assistance in Buner.  With 
USAID/OFDA funding, UNHabitat is ready to assist with 
debris-clearing and utility restoration in the virtually 
flattened town of Sultanwas.  The UN has one food and 
non-food hub, and WFP is installing more; WHO is providing 
support to the health infrastructure.  USAID/OFDA is 
initiating a range of grants providing support for housing 
repair, livelihood restoration, and health services to 
returned populations.  There will be a need to make a true 
estimate of needs and to provide  access to quick disbursing 
schemes (including cash for work) to help repair damaged 
homes, replant fields, restock herds, re-open business, or 
meet basic needs until sustainable jobs can be obtained. 
 
15.  (SBU) While perhaps 70 percent of those displaced from 
Bajaur have returned home, Bajaur is generating fresh 
displacement from conflict-affected areas in the Charmang 
Valley. 
 
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South Waziristan 
---------------- 
 
16.  (SBU) South Waziristan represents a humanitarian crisis 
that has not yet occurred.  All major roads from the East are 
blocked, and a military operation with humanitarian 
ramifications is expected shortly.  The government estimates 
that 60,000 people have been displaced.  Humanitarian 
assistance has been prepositioned in Bakkar.  The GOP has 
determined that there will be no camps or international 
humanitarian presence in D.I. Khan or in Tank, the areas 
receiving the displaced.  Under agreement with UNHCR, the 
Ministry of Social Welfare and a local NGO are undertaking 
registration with verification by NADRA.  The NGO 
representative estimated that 5000 displaced families from 
South Waziristan were in D.I. Khan and more than 1600 in 
Tank; family size is estimated at ten for this area.  USAID 
and the UN are also working through the same NGO to provide 
assistance to those displaced from Waziristan, and the UN has 
prepositioned food and non-food assistance in Bakkar in 
Punjab.  Access for even an NGO staffed with people from the 
area is highly complicated due to fundamental distrust of the 
population of those outside the tribe and complex tribal 
structures.  The UN is preparing for a worst case scenario of 
150,000 displaced with the assumption that the conflict will 
be limited to South Waziristan and not include North 
Waziristan.  An estimated 15,000 people have displaced to 
Afghanistan, but it is not clear whether these people are 
Afghans or Pakistanis. 
 
 
 
 
 
PATTERSON