VZCZCXRO4799
OO RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHHM #0535/01 1831010
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O P 021010Z JUL 09
FM AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5932
INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUEHHI/AMEMBASSY HANOI PRIORITY 3845
RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY PRIORITY 6168

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HO CHI MINH CITY 000535 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS, INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV PGOV SOCI VM
SUBJECT: PATHS TO LEADERSHIP IN THE PROVINCES OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
VIETNAM 
 
REF: 06 HCMC 87 
 
HO CHI MIN 00000535  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Over the past eighteen months ConGen Officers 
have travelled to each of the provinces south of Thua Thien Hue, 
engaging local leaders on issues of U.S. interest ranging from 
trade and investment to human rights and education.  At the same 
time, we have been observing a strong correlation between the 
type of leader in each province -- traditional loyalist, 
economic rising star, or Hanoi fixer -- and the degree of 
provincial openness.  For example, each of the five provinces 
with leaders boasting strong economic credentials also ranks in 
the top quarter of the Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index 
and tend to be open to both the U.S. Consulate and foreign 
investors.  On the other hand, provinces led by a "Hanoi fixer" 
tend to have serious issues with poverty (Ninh Thuan), social 
unrest (Dak Lak) or corruption (Ca Mau) and are often difficult 
places for the Consulate or private businesses to engage. 
Hanoi-imposed interlopers are the exception rather than the rule 
in provincial leadership and Southerners hold all but one of the 
top jobs (provincial Party secretary) in the 33 southern 
provinces.  The few "outsiders" in top slots are sometimes 
economic rising stars polishing credentials for higher office, 
like Tran Van Vinh, who is now Dong Nai Provincial People's 
Committee Vice-chairman but previously was the number two at 
Vietnam Airlines.  Other interlopers are Central Committee 
fixers, like Provincial Party Secretary Tran Quoc Huy, sent to 
Dak Nong Province to oversee a specific project, in this case 
bauxite.  Our review of the southern provinces shows that when 
an outsider is brought in, it's a sure sign that something 
interesting is on.  END SUMMARY. 
 
All Politics Is Local in Central and Southern Provinces 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
¶2. (SBU) The two most critical positions in any province are the 
provincial Party secretary and the People's Committee (PC) 
chairman.  Officially, the Secretary leads the Party and the 
chairman manages the government, but the Party Secretary 
indisputably runs the province.  In general, PC Chairs have 
exactly as much authority and autonomy as the Party Secretary 
chooses to give him/her.  To understand the underlying power 
structure, look at the makeup of the top leadership of each 
province's Party Committee.  At best, the People's Committee 
Chairman at best serves concurrently as provincial deputy party 
secretary.  In many cases, such as in HCMC, the People's 
Committee Chair ranks below two or three others in the 
provincial Party hierarchy.  Nevertheless, in running the 
day-to-day operations of the provincial government, the People's 
Committee chairs and vice-chairs still have a tremendous 
influence on the province. 
 
¶3. (SBU) While every province in central and southern Vietnam 
has unique geo-political and economic conditions, most do have 
one thing in common: all but one of thirty-three provinces from 
Thua Thien Hue south are led by Party stalwarts born in the 
province or transplanted from elsewhere in the south of Vietnam. 
 Natives dominate the highest levels of provincial politics; 
twenty-one Party secretaries and twenty-two PC chairmen were 
born in the province where they now hold positions of influence. 
 
 
Path to Provincial Leadership:  Loyalists Still Dominate 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
¶4. (SBU) In general, provincial leaders still rise to the top 
through the hierarchy in the Party.  A handful of provincial 
leaders still claim war-era credentials, but more than half of 
the Party secretaries and People's Committee chairmen in central 
and southern provinces come from "powerhouse" Party organs, 
including: (a) the Organizational Affairs and Personnel 
Department, which decides on appointments, promotions and human 
resources matters, (b) the Internal Politics/Party Control 
Department, which ensures members' loyalty to the Party, and (c) 
the Inspection Department, which inspects Party members' moral 
conduct and investigates corruption claims.  Even among the 
twelve Party secretaries and People's Committee chairpersons in 
the relatively reform-oriented Southern Key Economic Zone 
provinces, five top leaders were promoted from the Party 
powerhouses. 
 
¶5. (SBU) This localized nature of politics has produced some 
interesting results.  Three of six Party secretaries in the 
Central Highlands are indigenous ethnic minorities, perhaps 
balanced by the fact that five of six People's Committee chairs 
in the Central Highlands are non-locals southerners.  Border and 
Central Highland provinces generally have at least one leader 
with military or security experience.  The Mekong Delta has many 
provincial leaders with war credentials but little international 
experience. 
 
¶6. (SBU) In Post's experience, Party stalwarts are the most 
 
HO CHI MIN 00000535  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
disciplined -- and uninteresting -- interlocutors.  Tay Ninh 
Party Secretary Mdm. Le Thi Ban, born in Cu Chi District on the 
border of Tay Ninh and HCMC, rose through the ranks in Tay Ninh, 
making stops in the Party's Organization and Inspections 
departments.  Ban simply read a brief prepared statement during 
one meeting with the Consul General.  To respond to additional 
questions, she simply repeated some portion of that statement. 
Equally inscrutable, Tien Giang Secretary Mdm. Tran Thi Kim Cuc 
rose through that provincial Party's Organization and Personnel 
departments.  Given the background of Mrs. Cuc, a hardliner who 
grew up in one of the most hardline anti-American districts of 
the south, it's perhaps not surprising that our Consulate's 
Fraud Prevention Unit (FPU) finds conducting field work in Tien 
Giang to be particularly challenging. 
 
Path to Leadership:  Business Rising Stars 
------------------------------------------ 
¶7. (SBU) Not all provincial leaders fit the party stalwart mold. 
 A small but growing number of provincial leaders, especially 
People's Committee vice-chairpersons, have broader experience in 
Vietnam's economy.  Leaders who have demonstrated economic or 
business acumen while managing a State-owned enterprise or 
directing a business-oriented government office (e.g., the 
Department of Planning and Investment or Department Industry and 
Trade) are starting to become a force in some reform-minded 
provinces.  Numbers are still modest: in the thirty-three 
provinces, only six Party secretaries and chair people were 
former heads of planning and investment departments and three 
had previously run state-own enterprises.  They tend to be 
clustered in the south-central coastal provinces, as is the case 
for Binh Dinh Party Secretary Vu Hang Hoa (previously Chairman 
of the Binh Dinh Import Export Corporation) and Phu Yen Party 
Secretary Dao Thanh Loc (who headed the provincial Department of 
Planning and Investment). 
 
¶8. (SBU) Contacts familiar with the Party's personnel system 
tell us that the Party also actively tries to develop 
well-connected or well-educated young talent by sending them to 
spend time in the ranks of provincial leaders.  This establishes 
their government and political credentials and prepares them for 
more senior central-level assignments.  Eight "Hanoi-installed" 
vice chairmen in our consular district fit this bill, among them 
Binh Duong Vice Chairman Pham Hoang Ha.  Ha was transferred 
there from the HCMC Trade Department where he was director, and 
happens to be the son of former Prime Minister (and police 
general) Pham Hung.  Dong Nai People's Committee 
Vice-Chairperson Tran Van Vinh was "elected" in September 2008. 
Born in March 1961 in Hai Phong City, Vinh was Deputy General 
Director of Vietnam Airlines from September 2004 and was behind 
most of the airlines' international business dealings.  Vinh 
speaks fluent English, French and Russian. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The idea that Party loyalty trumps qualifications is 
beginning to be challenged because a number of prominent 
southerners have made it to the provincial leadership thanks to 
their education or business experience.  Take, for example, the 
case of An Giang province Vice Chairman Le Minh Tung.  Although 
he was born in Saigon in 1952, Mr. Tung has spent over 
thirty-five years in An Giang.  A Fulbright scholar, he earned 
his Master's in Public Administration at Harvard University in 
¶1996.  He worked as Science and Technology Department Director 
and as vice rector and now rector for An Giang University.  Tung 
is one of only two provincial leaders in the whole Mekong Delta 
who speaks fluent English.  The other is 45-year-old Can Tho 
Vice Chairman Tran Tuan Anh, the former Vietnamese Consul 
General in San Francisco.  A career diplomat, Tuan Anh has a PhD 
in International Economics and headed the Economics General 
Department and Director of the Diplomatic Fund for Economics 
Support, Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  Perhaps even more 
telling, Tuan Anh's father is Vietnam's former President Tran 
Duc Luong. 
 
¶9. (SBU) It is very difficult to say whether well-educated and 
business-minded leaders tend to focus on creating an environment 
attractive to investment or reform-minded provinces work to 
bring in leaders with business experience.  Either way, it seems 
that provinces where the leadership has economic experience do 
well even if they are in isolated, rural regions:  An Giang 
ranks 9th on the 2008 Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index, 
Binh Dinh ranks 11th (and has welcomed Consulate visitors) and 
Dong Nai (a more urban province) ranks 15th.  More generally, 
each of the five provinces with business and economic rising 
stars also ranks in the top quarter of the Vietnam Provincial 
Competitiveness Index. 
 
Paths to Provincial Leadership:  Politburo Fixers 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶10. (SBU) Similar to the "rising stars" is a third category of 
 
HO CHI MIN 00000535  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
provincial leaders sent by the Party to oversee a sensitive 
project or to correct a particular problem.  These tend to be 
well-connected, experienced and trusted political insiders. 
Security issues, unacceptable levels of corruption or even 
persistent abject poverty seem to drive decisions to install 
this type of targeted leadership. 
 
¶11. (SBU) For example, the Central Highlands province of Dak 
Nong is now led by Party Secretary Tran Quoc Huy, the former 
Deputy Head of the Central Party Organizational Committee.  Huy 
replaced a local Party secretary in April 2009, just as the Nhan 
Co bauxite excavation project, located in the province, became a 
nationwide controversy. 
 
¶12. (SBU) In September 2008, Mr. Nguyen Tuan Khanh replaced 
Party Secretary Nguyen Thanh Binh, who was officially fired for 
violating recruitment regulations and inappropriately waiving 
criminal prosecution for the director of the Cinamex company. 
As a current Central party Committee member and previously 
Deputy Head of the Party Central Organization Committee, deputy 
head of the Central Internal Affairs Committee and Secretary of 
the Gia Lai Party Committee, insiders say Khanh has the 
political firepower to restore stability to Ca Mau province and 
then return successfully to Hanoi for bigger and better 
assignments.  Khanh is originally from the Mekong Delta, born in 
An Giang province in 1954. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Former Vice-Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen 
Chi Dung was named Chairman and Deputy Party Secretary in the 
poverty-stricken Central Coast province of Ninh Thuan in April 
¶2009.  Born in 1960 in the Northern province of Ha Tinh, Dung 
was in charge of foreign direct investment, industrial parks and 
export processing zones.  He holds a PhD in Economics and speaks 
English. 
 
Security and the Military Leaders Play a Special Role 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
¶14. (SBU) While more than 90 percent of current central and 
southern provincial Party secretaries and Chairmen were born in 
the early fifties, only a handful of them were fighters during 
the Vietnam war.  Of the eight leaders who have either wartime 
experience or military background, half are in the Central 
Highlands or border provinces, where ethnic minority issues and 
national defense remain priority concerns.  In Dak Lak, where 
ethnic riots erupted in 2001 and 2004, the People's Committee 
Chairman is police Major General Lu Ngoc Cu (born in southern 
province of Quang Nam).  In Tay Ninh province, host to the 
busiest Vietnam-Cambodia border crossing, the provincial 
chairman graduated from the Police University and worked his way 
up from the Party Organizational Affairs Department.  Three 
other Party secretaries and People's Committee chairpersons with 
military and police background are stationed in Ben Tre, Dong 
Thap and Soc Trang.  Soc Trang is one of the most problematic 
provinces in the Mekong Delta for ethnic minority issues due to 
its large population of Khmer. 
 
Comments 
-------- 
¶15. (SBU) Many students of Vietnam's history will not be 
surprised that the Communist Party remains the bastion of real 
power across the south.  They may be surprised, however, to find 
that the provinces of southern Vietnam firmly are in the hands 
of Southerners rather than "Northern transplants."  Homegrown 
representation certainly professes more concern for local 
issues, though cynics say it contributes to a culture of 
cronyism in the south.  The rise of some local stars is 
promising, too.  With luck, their talents may enable them to 
follow the path of current President Nguyen Minh Triet (who 
turned Binh Duong province into an economic powerhouse) or 
Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Thien Nhan (the highly-educated 
politician who rose from city-level department head to deputy 
prime minister).  There certainly appears to be a correlation 
between ranking highly on the Vietnam Competitive Index and the 
future career paths of provincial leaders.  Yet make no mistake: 
loyalty/obedience to the Party, deference to elders and the 
ability to master internal power dynamics are still deciding 
factors in shaping careers and the majority of provincial 
leaders still advance through the local Party system by waiting 
their turn and avoiding mistakes.  While the number of "local 
talents" and "Hanoi-installations" remains a modest eight among 
some 150 top provincial Party and government positions, there 
are hopeful signs that Vietnam's top leadership is working to 
modernize the provincial party ranks by favoring loyalty and 
talent as opposed to only loyalty.  This movement toward 
rewarding talent can be seen since the 10th Party Congress in 
2006 (reftel) and may be the defining difference between the 
current GVN's personnel selection from the pre-doi moi era.  End 
Comment. 
 
HO CHI MIN 00000535  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶16. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Hanoi. 
FAIRFAX