VZCZCXRO4126
RR RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0831/01 1911101
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101101Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0525
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0174
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0118
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0097
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0054
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 1109

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000831 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB ECON SOCI EAID AMGT RU TI
SUBJECT: THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF LABOR MIGRATION AND BRAIN DRAIN 
 
DUSHANBE 00000831  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Extreme levels of outmigration from Tajikistan 
have left the country with few skilled citizens to address its 
complex problems, and at the same time, is warping the social 
fabric in ways that have serious consequences for future 
stability. While skilled professionals leave with their families 
to seek higher wages and better educations and futures for their 
children, the unskilled leave their wives and children behind to 
cope alone. The government is happy for unemployed men to be 
elsewhere and to have a huge stream of remittances to underpin 
the economy. Meanwhile it invests a bare minimum in the 
education and health of its booming child and youth population. 
For donors focusing on the needs of this young generation and 
empowering the women left behind could be the key to making a 
difference in Tajikistan's future. End Summary 
 
 
 
Tajikistan's Mass Emigration 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) Despite the slow-down in Russia's economy, the level of 
emigration from Tajikistan remains at crisis levels. While the 
number of labor migrants is imprecise, it is clear that numbers 
are huge, with estimates that as many as half of working age men 
have left the country in recent years. Unsurprisingly, this has 
serious social and economic consequences for the country. This 
migration has provided for short-term stability by moving hordes 
of unemployed men out of the country and providing basic income 
to a large percentage of Tajik households, but is laying the 
groundwork for medium- to long-term instability. While the bulk 
of migrants go to work as unskilled labor, the out-migration of 
skilled workers and professionals is, if anything, more severe. 
According to a survey, migrants have 1.67 times more education 
than national average.  This loss of the skilled workforce poses 
serious problems to the development of the country, as virtually 
every sector of the country lacks the capacity to address the 
serious challenges it faces. 
 
 
 
Skilled Workers Pushed to Go By Many Factors 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) For those without much education, there are few jobs or 
opportunities to earn income, and many leave simply to survive 
and provide for their families. For those with skills and 
expertise there are jobs, but many factors push them to seek a 
future elsewhere. While in the 1990's the civil war and its 
aftermath of high crime and violence were key push factors, 
today the reasons are more diffuse. Salaries are low, but living 
costs are high. The education system is in near collapse. A 
population boom means that classes are run in two or even three 
shifts. Many teachers are only high school graduates. Books, 
supplies and facilities are falling apart or non-existent. 
Schools lack toilets, heat and even windows. University places 
have also failed to match the population increase: most can 
obtain one of the limited university slots only by paying a 
hefty bribe. The quality of education may well not justify the 
cost. For those who value education, this is no place to raise 
children. Healthcare is likewise often unavailable or of very 
poor quality, provided in bare, unheated rooms. On reaching age 
18, young men are subject to forcible conscription into the 
military where they are often beaten and nearly starved. For 
those with any skills, not only does employment abroad provide a 
better salary and higher living standards, but also allows 
people to access better education and healthcare for their 
children, and for boys to avoid the dangers of conscription. The 
most skilled workers are the most likely to emigrate with their 
families. Post will report on the impact of this problem on 
Embassy operations septel. 
 
 
 
Leaving Few to Tackle the Country's Development Challenges 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Russian Federation actively recruits medical 
professionals, engineers and others with key skills from Central 
Asia.  The Tajik government cannot compete and ministries, 
agencies, and government-owned enterprises are not able to hire 
qualified staff for many positions, which either go unfilled or 
are staffed by those without the knowledge and skills to manage 
the challenges the country faces. The Ministry of Education has 
resorted to hiring high school graduates as teachers. Our health 
 
DUSHANBE 00000831  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
project implementers report they have to entirely retrain most 
doctors, since their level of medical knowledge is so minimal. 
Meanwhile, in the last year at Tajikistan's medical university, 
medical students were required to put in several hours each week 
on construction duty rebuilding the school's library which was 
destroyed by fire. The international relations office of a key 
counterpart agency is slow to respond to our requests. The 
director explained he has five vacant positions because he can't 
find qualified staff. The same story is repeated in sector after 
sector. The European Commission reports that their project with 
the Finance Ministry is hampered by the fact that nearly half 
the ministry's positions are unfilled. A key statistics office 
has a single staff member. While the economic situation in 
Russia has seen some Tajiks return, it appears to be the least 
skilled. 
 
 
 
Social Impact in the Broader Society 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) The migration has broader impact than brain drain, 
however. While in many countries there is a strong tradition of 
migrant labor, and remittances are a key source of hard currency 
earnings, the situation in Tajikistan is an order of magnitude 
larger than elsewhere. Remittances equivalent to 5-10% of GDP 
are considered large in other countries; Tajikistan's have 
surpassed 50%. The vast share of people gone is unparalleled. In 
the countryside, Tajikistan is literally a country of no men. 
The villages have young boys and a few bearded elders while the 
bulk of the population is female. One rarely sees such a 
situation except in the wake of a war. While the 100,000 
estimated dead in the Tajik civil war was considered 
devastating, the loss of people from emigration is as much as 
ten times that number. 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Though skilled professionals may take their families, 
the vast majority of migrants leave their families behind. Most 
emigrants maintain ties through remittances and about half make 
annual visits home. Most households are run by women in the 
absence of their husbands, caring for children without fathers 
present. The boys can expect some day to follow their fathers to 
Russia. The girls remain behind with more limited marriage 
prospects and an uncertain future. Families fear being unable to 
marry off their daughters, so they tend to marry them off at 
ever younger ages - and more and more frequently to men who 
already have one or more wives - in hope of securing their 
future. This has had a serious impact on girls' literacy, with 
further negative consequences for the health and education of 
their children. The annual visits home, however, mean that many 
Tajik women of child-bearing age continue to have a child each 
year, and Tajikistan's population growth rate continues to 
greatly outstrip that of neighboring countries. Half the 
population is under eighteen and progressing through a 
dysfunctional education system. As Tajikistan loses its Soviet 
legacy of high literacy, its capacity to deal with its problems 
drops ever further. 
 
 
 
Government Complicit 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) The government shows little in interest in changing the 
current pattern. Much of its bilateral discussions with Russia 
involve reaching agreement to allow even more Tajiks to live and 
work there. When a slow down in Russia's economy reduced demand 
for Tajik labor, the government of Tajikistan began to look for 
other countries as possible destinations for Tajik workers. 
Meanwhile government revenue depends heavily on customs duties 
and value-added tax on imports, which are supported mainly by 
remittances which finances virtually all imports. Tajikistan 
devotes the lowest percentage of its GDP to education of any 
country in the world, and one of the lowest percentages of GDP 
for health care. They have few qualms about threatening to 
reduce the already low social expenditures to encourage donors 
to increase their assistance. 
 
 
 
Making a Difference: Engage Women and Youth 
 
 
 
DUSHANBE 00000831  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶8. Comment: A country very nearly denuded of not just the best 
educated, but of adult men in general, should raise a huge red 
warning flag to us about the future stability of Tajikistan. The 
influx of remittances allows Tajikistan to live beyond its 
means, and allows the government to put off making essential and 
difficult reforms.  Reducing migration, while posing difficult 
issues in the short-term, should improve Tajikistan's longer 
term prospects and stability.  For now, the situation is mired 
in a negative spiral of reduced capacity, allowing problems to 
worsen, which further weakens the county's ability to reverse 
the downward momentum. Given the dire outlook, Tajikistan's 
youthful demographic skew could be the key to halting and 
reversing the trend if resources were poured into education and 
empowering women. As the education system collapses, parents and 
students seek opportunities from any available source, whether 
the U.S., Russian, or Iranian governments. Three thousand 
families, for example, applied for just 80 spaces in the summer 
"Camp America," in one of the most isolated and religiously 
conservative parts of the country. More than 1,500 students 
applied for the FLEX high school exchange program. These 
statistics indicate an openness to seize any chance at a better 
future for Tajikistan's next generation. This is an opportunity 
we should take advantage of. 
 
 
 
¶9. Exposing this generation to a broader range of ideas and 
experience could have a lasting impact on the country's future 
direction.  The opportunities for those who do acquire the 
skills both to find work and have impact are quite strong. Women 
are de facto managing their households; if organized, they would 
lead their communities and if given the support and knowledge 
they need, they could address many issues that affect them and 
their children. If Tajikistan is experiencing an epic loss of 
human resources, there is also an enormous opportunity to help 
hitherto neglected segments of the population to step in, fill 
the gap, and take the country in a more sustainable direction. 
To take real advantage of this opportunity, we need to 
strengthen our role in education, provide more English language 
training and exchanges, and continue and expand community 
development and food security programs that teach women skills 
and empower them to take control of their destinies to push 
Tajikistan in a direction of sustainable economic growth which 
provides opportunities to all Tajiks. 
JACOBSON