VZCZCXRO0117
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHDL #0260 1901310
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091310Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0061
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST 1021

UNCLAS DUBLIN 000260 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN EI
SUBJECT: LISBON TREATY RE-RUN SET FOR OCTOBER 2 
 
REF: DUBLIN 236 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Ireland will hold a second referendum on 
the Lisbon Treaty on Friday, October 2.  There is a general 
consensus in Irish political circles that the leaders of the 
nation dropped the ball during the first referendum on the 
Lisbon Treaty, which was defeated in June 2008.  The 'Yes' 
campaigners will be anxious not to make the same mistakes 
again.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) On July 8, Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Brian Cowen 
confirmed that Ireland will hold a second referendum on the 
Lisbon Treaty on Friday, October 2.  The vote is required 
following the rejection of the Treaty by the electorate in 
June 2008.  The Irish government believes the Treaty will 
pass in October, having secured a series of legal guarantees 
on issues of concern to the electorate such as neutrality, 
taxation, and ethics.  The necessary legislation (28th 
Amendment of the Constitution (Treaty of Lisbon) Bill 2009) 
will pass through parliament on June 9, prior to the 
parliament's summer recess. 
 
¶3.  (U) In response to the announcement, Minister for Foreign 
Affairs Micheal Martin said that the Treaty is in Ireland's 
best interest, stating: "The government believes that this 
treaty is good for Ireland and good for Europe."  Fine Gael, 
the largest opposition party (which supports the Treaty) 
welcomed the announcement, saying they would campaign 
strenuously for a 'Yes' vote in the national interest.  The 
Employers Organization and the Irish Business and Employers 
Confederation (IBEC) also support the Treaty.  Following the 
announcement of October's poll, IBEC's European Affairs 
Director Brendan Butler said "A positive result is vital to 
ensure that Ireland remains a constructive partner in Europe 
and is an essential building block on the road to economic 
recovery." 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Sinn Fein remained the only political party in 
Ireland opposed to the Treaty.  Its European spokesperson, 
Aengus O Snodaigh, publicly criticized the Taoiseach for 
holding a second referendum.  Declan Ganley and his Libertas 
party, which bankrolled the 'No' campaign in 2008, was 
notably silent, reinforcing the belief that Libertas will not 
be a factor in the second referendum following Ganley's 
humiliating defeat in the European Parliament elections in 
June 2009. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Comment:  There is a general consensus in Irish 
political circles that the leaders of the nation dropped the 
ball during the first referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, which 
was defeated in June 2008.  The 2008 'Yes' campaign started 
too late, was not able to adequately explain the complex 
Treaty document, and allowed the 'No' side to control the 
agenda (Refs).  They will be anxious not to make the same 
mistakes again. 
FAUCHER