VZCZCXRO5343
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDK #0825 1831700
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 021700Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2677
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1234

UNCLAS DAKAR 000825 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM XY PU
SUBJECT:  GUINEA-BISSAU:  SANHA, YALA PREVAIL IN SOUND PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION 
 
REF: DAKAR 696 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Guinea-Bissau's presidential election took place 
without major incident on June 28.  All observers, including those 
from Embassy Dakar, agreed that the election was technically sound. 
Voter turnout was low, due in part to recent violence (reftel) and 
the re-use of voter lists compiled 12 months ago.  African Party for 
the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) candidate Malam 
Bacai Sanha received 39 percent of the votes cast and will face 
former President and Party for Social Renewal (PRS) candidate Kumba 
Yala, who garnered 29 percent of the vote, in a second round of 
balloting on August 2. END SUMMARY 
 
BACKGROUND 
---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  On June 28, Guinea-Bissau held a presidential election to 
replace its slain former president, Joao Bernardo "Nino" Vieira. 
The three weeks of official campaigning were muted due to the March 
assassinations of Vieira and armed forces chief of staff General 
Tagme Na Wai and the June killings of presidential candidate Baciro 
Dabo and former Minister of Defense Helder Proenca.  Independent 
candidate Pedro Infanda dropped out of the race citing a lack of 
security. 
 
ELECTION DAY 
------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU)  The election took place without incident and was 
well-organized, well-executed and without any notable tension. 
PolCouns and EmbOffs observed the balloting in Bissau, Mansoa, 
Bissora, Bafata, Gabu, and surrounding rural areas.  Although U.S. 
Embassy observers noticed some very minor irregularities such as 
improperly sealed ballot boxes, none noticed any dubious or 
fraudulent activities.  The presence of candidates' representatives 
at all polling stations for the entire day, from the opening of 
polls to the counting of votes, helped to minimize irregularities. 
Additionally, observers from nations and organizations including the 
African Union, the Economic Community of West African States 
(ECOWAS), the United Kingdom, and the European Union (EU) agreed 
that the election proceeded in a smooth and transparent manner, void 
of any irregularities. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Although voting proceeded smoothly, voter turnout was 
noticeably lower than during the November 2008 legislative 
elections.  Voter turnout was approximately 60 percent, with 
significant variations between regions and ethnic groups.  For 
example, turn-out was reportedly very low among the Papel ethnic 
group, ostensibly because they were protesting the assassination of 
former president Vieira, who was Papel.  The EU observation mission 
noted that "the climate of insecurity and fear observed mainly in 
the capital, Bissau, may have contributed to the voters' apathy and 
lack of enthusiasm during the campaign compared to past elections 
and to a possible increase in the level of abstention." 
 
 
ELECTION RESULTS 
------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU)  On July 2, the National Electoral Commission (CNE) 
announced the unofficial results.  African Party for the 
Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) candidate Malam Bacai 
Sanha received 133,786 votes cast, or 39.5 percent.  Party for 
Social Renewal (PRS) candidate Kumba Yala garnered 99,428 votes, or 
29.5 percent.  Independent candidate Henrique Rosa secured 81,751 
votes, or 24 percent, thereby failing to win a spot in the second 
round.  (NOTE: In accordance with the Bissau-Guinean electoral code, 
if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, the two 
candidates receiving the most votes will compete in a run-off 
election. END NOTE)  On July 1, Rosa conceded defeated, 
congratulated Sanha and Yala, and called on all parties to accept 
the results. On July 2, following the release of the official 
results, Sanha and Yala both publicly accepted the findings of the 
CNE. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Sanha's strong showing appears to be more of a 
result of the organizational capacity of the PAIGC political machine 
rather than an endorsement of the government of Prime Minister and 
PAIGC President Carlos Gomes Jr.  Indeed, public dissatisfaction 
with Gomes' government combined with Yala's relentless and scathing 
campaign attacks on Gomes and the PAIGC, likely propelled Yala into 
second place.  It is unlikely, however, that Yala will prevail in 
the second round, as most of Rosa's supporters will likely throw 
their support behind Sanha.  END COMMENT. 
 
BERNICAT