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DE RUEHCH #0589/01 2111557
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301557Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8218
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000589 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/UMB, DRL/AE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MD
SUBJECT: ELECTING A PRESIDENT ONLY POSSIBLE 
THROUGH COALITION 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT 
ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  With 98.3 percent of the vote 
counted, it is already clear that Moldova will 
have a five-party parliament.  With 48 seats 
reported thus far out of a total of 101, the Party 
of Communists (PCRM) will be unable to elect a 
President, or even a Speaker, on its own.  It is 
still possible that the final result may turn out 
to be only 47 seats for the Communists, once the 
overseas voting is tallied.  Barring a move to 
call for a referendum on direct popular election 
of the president, installing a president will 
require a coalition.  The two possible outcomes 
would be either a coalition of one or more parties 
with PCRM or a destabilizing effort by opposition 
leadership to band together and boycott working 
with the communists.  The four other parties 
elected to the parliament include the three that 
were in the previous parliament -- Filat's PLDM 
(17), Ghimpu's PL (15), Urechean's AMN (8) -Q plus 
the Democratic Party now headed by Lupu with 13 
seats.   Their combined total would be too slim to 
elect a president, resulting in a stalemate that 
would spark new parliamentary polls in spring 
¶2010.  Marian Lupu is the kingmaker Q and a 
possible future President.  Any scenario involving 
PCRM cooperation with the opposition would require 
both sides to set aside the vituperation of the 
campaign period and the mutual accusations 
following the April 7 riots.  End Summary. 
 
The Preliminary Results are In 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Moldovan law requires simple majority of 
52 parliamentary votes (one-half plus one) in 
order to elect a speaker or approve the 
President's nomination of a Prime Minister, but a 
wider three-fifths majority of 61 votes is needed 
to elect a President.  As of July 30, preliminary 
results based upon counting of 98.3 percent of the 
votes are known; final results of the popular vote 
and distribution of seats will be released July 
¶31.  The prospective seat allocation for 
parliament breaks down as follows: 
 
PCRM  48 (60 in the April 5 Parliament) 
AMN   8 (11) 
PL  15 (15) 
PLDM  17 (15) 
PD-Lupu 13 (0) 
 
¶3. (SBU) Unlike the April 5 elections, in which 
the Communists held enough seats to elect a 
speaker and a president, in the new parliament, 
the Communists alone will not be able to elect 
either.   The election results would allow the 
four non-Communist parties to choose a speaker, if 
they worked together, but not to elect a 
president.  If two attempts by the new parliament 
to elect a President were to fail, new elections 
would be required.  However, since Parliament 
cannot be dissolved twice in a 12-month period, 
such new polls could not take place until the 
spring of 2010. 
 
Coalition with the Communists... 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The PCRM, in a coalition together with 
any of the three largest opposition parties, could 
elect both a speaker and a president.  The PCRM's 
48 seats plus Lupu's 13 add up to exactly 61, so 
if Lupu were to agree to work with PCRM, together 
they could elect a Speaker and have the "golden 
vote" necessary to elect a President.  However, 
this might still change, as there is a possibility 
that the PCRM will have only 47 seats, once the 
remaining overseas votes are counted, which would 
leave the PCRM plus Lupu one seat short of the 
golden vote.  Lupu has talked about not making a 
bilateral coalition Q so, he might try to win 
support from PLDM and AMN for a broader 
reconciliation coalition, (and might win such 
support if he were the one nominated for 
President).  The broader coalition would be 
necessary should the PCRM have only 47 seats. 
 
CHISINAU 00000589  002 OF 002 
 
 
President Voronin has already begun to make public 
statements about a broad coalition.  However, we 
doubt that the PL would be willing to join such a 
coalition with the Communists. 
 
Coalition Without the Communists... 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Alternatively, all of the non-Communist 
parties might try to band together.  The three 
opposition parties who made it into Parliament in 
April were PLDM (17), PL (15) and AMN (8), for a 
total for 40 seats.  If those 40 votes were joined 
together with Lupu's 13, that would give 53.  So, 
if all non-Communist parties were to form an 
alliance to work together without the PCRM, with 
53 votes they could elect a Speaker but not a 
President.   Such a coalition would then limp 
along with Voronin continuing as Acting President, 
with the government only able to last until repeat 
elections took place in 2010.  It would be a 
formula for protracted crisis, as such a 
government, while theoretically possible, would be 
weak and contentious, vulnerable to inter-party 
power struggles and spats, and would be lacking a 
head. 
 
...Or an Attempt to Change the System 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Another possibility is that the 
opposition parties might work together, using 
their majority, to vote to hold a referendum on 
reintroducing direct popular election of the 
President.  This decision to call for a referendum 
would require only a simple majority.  If the 
population were to approve such a change, Lupu 
could be a strong candidate for popular 
presidential election. 
 
Comment: No protests anticipated 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) We do not anticipate any violent 
protests.  Opposition parties have reason to be 
pleased with their results.  The July 29 elections 
changed the non-PCRM parties from a 41-member 
combined minority to a 53-member majority.  AMN, 
which was at risk of not passing the electoral 
threshold, can breathe a sigh of relief, while 
both PL and PLDM stayed close to their April 
results.  PD, which has never before passed the 
threshold running independent of a bloc, should be 
satisfied with the lift provided by its new star 
player, Marian Lupu.  Absent a reason to protest, 
such demonstrations are less likely.  We hope that 
the energies spent on squabbling after the April 
elections will now be devoted to difficult work of 
horse-trading and reconciliation needed to provide 
a viable government.  The party leaders would do 
best to engage in constructive dialogue and move 
forward to put together a government capable of 
implementing the electoral will of the people. 
 
CHAUDRY