VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0795/01 1882147
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 072147Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4027
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000795 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV AR
SUBJECT: Argentina: Keeping Score on the Pollsters 
 
REF: Buenos Aires 0750 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Most Argentine polling firms did not foresee 
former President Nestor Kirchner and his Victory Front (FpV) slate's 
second-place finish in the June 28 election in Buenos Aires 
province.  Only four polling firms (Poliarquia, Giacobbe, Isonomia, 
and Management and Fit) accurately predicted that the Pro Union, led 
by Peronist dissident and multimillionaire Francisco de Narvaez, 
would beat the FpV.  The firms most off base in their projections -- 
giving Kirchner 5 to 8.5 points over de Narvaez -- were Analogias, 
Ricardo Rouvier, Ibarometro, and Public Opinion Studies Center 
(CEOP).  Argentine media often report "polls" conducted by new, 
unknown pollsters as if they had equal standing with more reliable 
firms, making it difficult to sort out contradictory poll results. 
In that vein, we regard recent efforts by "Noticias" to rank 
pollsters as a positive step forward, and we offer this report card 
to help assess future polls.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) In the run-up to Argentina's June 28 midterm congressional 
elections, the majority of polling firms put former President Nestor 
Kirchner (NK) and the ruling Victory Front (FpV) slightly ahead of 
political rival and first-place winner Francisco de Narvaez of the 
Republican Proposal/Peronist dissident alliance, Union-PRO.  A long 
list of pollsters, including Ricardo Rouvier and Associates, Public 
Opinion Studies Center (CEOP), Analogias, Ibarometro, and Equis, 
were off the mark, predicting since May a victory for the FpV in the 
key race of Buenos Aires province.  Analogias (Analia del Franco), 
Ricardo Rouvier, Ibarometro (Doris Capurro), and CEOP (Roberto 
Bacman) were among the firms most off base in their projections, 
each giving a margin of victory to the FpV ranging from 5 to 8.5 
points.  In the end, the Union-PRO slate came out ahead of the FpV 
by a 2.47 point margin (34.58% to 32.11%) (reftel). 
 
¶3. (SBU) Only four polling firms -- Poliarquia (hired exclusively by 
paper-of-record "La Nacion"), Giacobbe, Isonomia, and Management and 
Fit -- accurately predicted de Narvaez's first-place finish in 
Buenos Aires Province.  Poliarquia, led by Sergio Berensztein and 
Fabian Perechodnik, was the first to do so, with the results that 
"La Nacion" published June 7.  Its June 21 poll also came closest in 
predicting Union-PRO's eventual 2.5 percentage point margin of 
victory.  Isonomia's poll published June 26 anticipated Union-PRO's 
results most accurately, saying it would win with 34.7% of the vote 
with a  two-point margin of victory over Nestor Kirchner's FpV 
slate.  These firms, however, underestimated by an average of six 
points the results for the Radical Party and Civic Coalition 
(UCR-CC) slate led by Margarita Stolbizer (whose electoral support 
was also seriously underestimated by the polls in her 2007 
gubernatorial bid).  Ricardo Rouvier and Associates (often used by 
the Casa Rosada was the closest to estimating the UCR-CC's actual 
support.  (In other respects, though, Rouvier was way off, for 
example predicting Nestor Kirchner's slate would win by 5.7 
points.) 
 
¶4. (SBU) In its July 3rd edition, news magazine "Noticias" ranked 
the overall performance of the country's ten leading pollsters in 
predicting the electoral results.  (Note: "Noticias" is owned by 
Jorge Fontevecchia, who is anti-Kirchner and for this reason 
receives no subsidies from the government, unlike most Argentine 
media.) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the best possible 
score, Management and Fit held the top position (8.9), followed by 
Giacobbe (8.5), Authentic Opinion (8.1), Poliarquia (7.9), Isonomia 
(7.9), Equis (6.2), CEOP (5.5), Ibarometro (4.5), Ricardo Rouvier 
(4.2), and Analogias (3.5).  The magazine ranked the pollsters by 
comparing their projections with the actual results, and a double 
penalty was given to predictions off by more than 5 points. 
 
¶5. (SBU) A previous issue of "Noticias" alleged that the Kirchners 
may have sought to manipulate the results of published polls.  It 
claimed the Casa Rosada paid polling firms 50,000 pesos (estimated 
USD 13,133) for each poll and directed them to produce results for 
publication that showed the FpV in the lead, with the intention of 
shaping public opinion rather than measuring it. (Note: The FpV, 
like its political party competitors, also commissioned surveys for 
private consumption, which may have given the Kirchners a more 
accurate picture of the electoral race.)  The magazine claimed that 
the Buenos Aires provincial government hired Analogias and owed the 
firm 280,000 pesos (approximately USD 73,714); while Equis had a 
contract with the Casa Rosada worth 585,000 pesos (approximately USD 
154,015).  Major pollster Manuel Mora y Araujo (Ipsos) privately 
circulated results that differed significantly from what he 
published.  The Embassy saw an unpublished Ipsos poll that showed 
Francisco de Narvaez ahead of Nestor Kirchner by five points; at the 
same time, media were reporting that Ipsos gave Kirchner a 
four-point lead. (Note: Ipsos has conducted multiple polls for the 
State Department over the last decade.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) In Buenos Aires City, the country's second largest 
electoral district, all polling firms predicted that Republican 
Proposal's slate (PRO) led by former City mayor Gabriela Michetti 
would win by a larger margin than it ultimately received.  Polling 
firms Julio Aurelio (hired by the PRO), Poliarquia, Analogias, and 
Ibarometro most accurately anticipated the City results, and were 
the only ones to predict a strong second place showing for leftist 
filmmaker Pino Solanas, who beat the UCR-CC's slate, surprising 
Argentina's political class.  Analogias, Ibarometro, and Poliarquia 
were also the closest to estimating the final numbers for Pino, 
Michetti, and Prat-Gay. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Unlike in the United States, where the most widely reported 
polls are those conducted by a few well-known, experienced, 
reputable firms, often in conjunction with major media 
organizations, in Argentina there has been a proliferation of 
pollsters, some of them highly questionable fly-by-night ventures. 
Argentine media often report "polls" conducted by new, unknown 
pollsters with no discernible track record as if they had equal 
standing with more reliable firms.  In that regard, we view 
"Noticias'" efforts to rank pollsters as a positive step forward. 
Political surveys in Argentina are additionally challenging because 
of the multiplicity of parties and candidates.  To help Washington 
readers assess future polls, we offer this report card on Argentine 
pollsters but note that even pollsters who deciphered the support 
for the top two tickets were not very accurate on the rest of the 
line-up.  Throughout this electoral season, polls portrayed the FpV 
and the Union-PRO in a statistical dead heat when the margin of 
error was taken into account -- and, indeed, the most closely 
watched race of Buenos Aires province turned out to be very close. 
Poliarquia, with its findings published June 7 in "La Nacion," 
deserves kudos for being the first major pollster to go public with 
findings that favored de Narvaez over Nestor Kirchner.  At the same 
time, serious questions remain regarding the role of political 
manipulation, flawed or tailored methodologies, or the 
unpredictability of Argentina's electorate as key factors behind the 
faulty predictions of some of the country's leading polling firms. 
 
Kelly