VZCZCXRO4826
RR RUEHAG RUEHDH RUEHHM RUEHPB RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHTM RUEHTRO
DE RUEHBS #0912/01 1831018
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 021018Z JUL 09
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000912 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2019 
TAGS: ECON PGOV KGHG SENV ENRG EUN
SUBJECT: WORKING WITH THE EU ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATIONAL 
SECURITY: NIC ENGEL VISIT 
 
Classified By: CDA Christopher W. Murray for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:   In Brussels, June 15-17, Major General 
Richard L. Engel, USAF (Retired), Director, Climate Change 
and State Stability Program, Long Range Analysis Unit, 
National Intelligence Council (NIC) heard from high level 
Europeans that:  the connection between security and climate 
change -- including, but not limited to adaptation and 
emergency response -- is a shared concern; a positive outcome 
of the UNFCC December meeting is vital; that China and India 
are major players; the countries of Africa face multiple 
challenges, and there are excellent possibilities for 
increased U.S.-EU cooperation in research.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Rich Engel, NIC's Director of Climate Change and 
State Stability Program, discussed the security aspects of 
climate change and urged increased U.S.-European research 
cooperation.  He briefed colleagues in Embassy Brussels, USEU 
and USNATO and met with EU and NATO representatives.  The 
previous week, Engel had been in London, participating in an 
interactive geo-political modeling conference -- the Arctic 
Game -- to explore national interests of an opening Arctic 
organized by the National Intelligence Council.  The trip to 
Brussels was a natural add-on, strongly supported and 
coordinated between U.S. Mission and the U.K. Permanent 
Representation. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Engel spoke to 80 officials at the European 
Commission's DG RELEX during a lunch time debate.  The mixed 
audience of Commission and Council staffers, and think tanks, 
NGOs and media representatives, was convened as part of a 
training program, held under Chatham House rules, to discuss 
important policy issues.  He gave a presentation on the 
results from a National Intelligence Assessment on the 
national security ramifications of global climate change. 
Noting that the study went only to 2030 and did not consider 
mitigation effects, Engel said the expectation is that 
climate change will aggravate existing problems such as 
poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, 
ineffective leadership and weak political institutions that 
threat state stability, but will not be the fundamental cause 
of any failed state.  He listed three principal ways climate 
change would affect national security:  water availability, 
agricultural productivity, and extreme weather threats to 
economically significant infrastructure.  He also briefly 
described the Arctic Game and explained how this type of 
event provides insights to analysts.  In response to audience 
calls for recommendations, Engel stressed the NIC's role in 
providing information to policy makers, turning aside 
questions on what should be the optimal results of the 
December UNFCC meeting in Copenhagen. 
 
¶4.  (C)  The USEU Charge d'Affaires hosted a dinner for Engel 
that was attended by, among others, The Norwegian Ambassador 
to the EU;  the Canadian DCM; the Special Counselor to HR 
Solana for Climate and Energy; and Tom Spencer, a former MEP, 
and now with the NGO International Environment Security. 
Engel reviewed the Arctic Policy Game run in London the 
previous week and discussed the security risks global warming 
poses to India and China, particularly those associated with 
glacier melt.  He focused on Russian behavior during the 
Arctic exercise, much to the interest of the Norwegian, 
Canadian, and other officials.  Spencer said that unlike 
western states, China and India will not have the capacity to 
adapt and this shortcoming will have serious regional, if not 
global, repercussions.  The Charge added that the United 
States and the EU must intensify efforts to getting China and 
India to agree to a deal at Copenhagen.  Solana's climate 
advisor said that the security dimension of climate change 
was a major focus for the EU and the Norwegian Ambassador 
stressed the importance of the High North --the Arctic -- to 
Norway. 
 
¶5. (C)  At an informal breakfast meeting of the EU Political 
and Security Committee, Engel reviewed the work done by both 
U.S. and EU analysts on the issue of climate change and 
national security noting in particular a well-known U.K. 
research center.  He urged greater cooperation in research 
and modeling data in the near term (6 months to 5 years) and 
called for more work on precipitation and major circulation 
patterns.  Engel offered to provide U.S. studies and 
expressed a strong interest in EU expert evaluations as to 
how changing conditions will effect Europe.  Helga Schmid, 
Director at the Council Policy Planning Early Warning Unit, 
noted the discussions she had had with Engel in Washington 
and spoke about EU papers on Africa, Asia, the Middle East 
and on Latin American and Southeast Asia.  The U.K. 
Ambassador said that they had ongoing climate change studies 
with France on the Sahel and with China.  The German 
Ambassador said that major coordination was needed in the 
 
BRUSSELS 00000912  002 OF 002 
 
 
international science community and that government funding 
was necessary to transform science knowledge into action. 
Engel described the process used in the National Intelligence 
Assessment and provided a readout on the geo-political Arctic 
policy game held in London. 
 
¶6.  (C)  In response to the Irish Ambassador's query about 
business community reactions, Engel quoted NIC Chairman's 
report to Congress that energy, environment and the economy 
are interdependent.  The Danish Ambassador pointed out that 
security aspects were a subset of climate change and that 
countries in Africa have more immediate problems, many of 
which require better governance, including land and water 
management.  The Dutch Ambassador suggested that in addition 
to looking at North Africa and its possible impacts on 
Europe, it was equally important to consider the tropics, as 
large African populations below the Sahel will also seek to 
move north.  The Spanish Ambassador introduced the topic of 
""good news"" and the possibility of improvement in agriculture 
in some areas.  Engel said that there could be short term 
benefits, but gave the example of Russia where warmer 
temperatures will also increase aridity and melting 
permafrost will cause serious problems with energy producing 
infrastructure.  Turning to energy issues, the Romanian 
Ambassador asked about effects on oil and energy resources in 
the Caspian and Black Sea regions.  Engel said that energy 
destabilization anywhere in the world was a concern but that 
during the period considered in the U.S. assessment -- up to 
2030 -- the climate effects on hydrocarbon sources of energy 
were not significant.  The Lithuanian Ambassador argued that 
climate change might just be a normal historic pattern with 
human activity only a small component.  Engel replied it was 
a sensitive debate, but that from a national security 
standpoint, the cause of change doesn't really matter, it's 
the results and the response that count.  The French Deputy 
inquired about the public role in the NIC's deliberation, 
process and results.  Engel noted that this subject had 
significant unclassified components and noted the 
unprecedented posting of certain reports on the internet 
website at www.dni.gov. 
 
¶7.  (C)  In addition to USNATO colleagues, Engel also met 
with emergency planning and operations representatives at 
NATO.  He had a useful exchange on scientific cooperation 
with the Director  of the Science for Peace and Security 
Section. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Engel devoted a significant amount of time for 
media outreach working with USEU Public Affairs and with the 
European Regional Hub.  He was interviewed by a German radio 
station, a Danish newspaper, and reporters from Europolitics 
and Reuters based in Brussels. 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Post would welcome a follow-up visit later in the 
year, when additional area reports have been completed. 
 
MURRAY 
.