VZCZCXRO4665
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLH RUEHLN
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DE RUEHAH #0837/01 1830813
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 020813Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3079
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 5384
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 3112
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2977
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 3628
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 3678

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 ASHGABAT 000837 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV TX
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR UNDER SECRETARY BURNS' VISIT TO 
TURKMENISTAN 
 
¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for Internet 
distribution. 
 
¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Embassy Ashgabat warmly welcomes your 
visit to Turkmenistan as a timely opportunity to demonstrate 
the U.S. commitment to regularizing our bilateral diplomatic 
dialogue.  Key issues are increased transit for supplies to 
support our troops in Afghanistan, access for U.S. energy 
firms to invest in Turkmenistan's energy sector and progress 
in human rights.  Prior to Foreign Minister Meredov's recent 
trip to Washington, high-level U.S. Government visitors to 
Ashgabat this year included General Petraeus in early 
January, Assistant Secretary Boucher in April and Special 
Envoy Morningstar in May.  Now in the third year of his 
presidency, President Berdimuhamedov is self-confident.  He 
will not hesitate to speak his mind.  Instead of the 
widespread, rapid reform that was hoped for after his rise to 
power, we have seen positive change occurring at a measured, 
cautious pace.  Turkmenistan will gradually bring its 
standards -- including educational and human rights -- more 
in line with international levels.  But Berdimuhamedov and 
his government are starting from almost zero with very few on 
his team who have the experience and capacity to implement 
reforms.  Like many ex-Soviet governments, Turkmenistan 
relies heavily on top-down decision making.  The longer-term 
monumental task will be to change a century of national 
political psychology, the entrenched bureaucracy, and the 
culture of rent-seeking.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Under Berdimuhamedov's leadership, it is clear 
Turkmenistan is becoming significantly different from the 
international bad-joke pariah state it was under the late 
President-for-Life Niyazov.  But precisely what Turkmenistan 
is becoming is still a work in progress.  Evidence 
increasingly suggests it could well one day become a 
responsible partner for the United States and a normal 
international player.  Berdimuhamedov's fundamental policies 
have been promising.  However, he faces an uphill struggle 
against political traditions that favor autocratic governance 
models and a bureaucratic capacity stunted by 15 years of 
Niyazovian repression and isolation.  The challenge will not 
be to get new reforms on the books -- Berdimuhamedov is 
already beginning to do this -- but rather, to change the 
attitudes and modi operandi of those officials responsible 
for implementing the new policies. 
 
SECURITY 
 
¶3. (SBU) The U.S. security relationship with Turkmenistan 
continues to unfold, with slow but consistent cooperation. 
Although basing is not an option, Turkmenistan remains an 
important conduit for the U.S. military to Afghanistan. 
Maintaining blanket overflight permission and the military 
refueling operation at Ashgabat Airport remains a key U.S. 
goal.  We have repeatedly asked, so far without success, for 
an increase of the number of overflights and permission for 
nonlethal supplies to transit Turkmenistan overland. 
Turkmenistan allows the United States a generous overflight 
agreement (relative to other countries), which was renewed on 
November 25, 2008.  The Turkmenistan blanket clearance number 
999C was first granted to U.S. military aircraft in 2003.  It 
has never provided unlimited permission to operate within 
Turkmen airspace and for this reason is sometimes described 
as a restricted blanket clearance.  The blanket permission is 
authorized solely for delivery of humanitarian assistance and 
to help stabilize and rebuild the nation of Afghanistan. 
Aircraft must follow strict flight profiles and can utilize 
only select call signs.  Aircraft are required to file a DoD 
international flight plan prior to entering Turkmenistan 
airspace and cannot deviate from that flight plan while in 
Turkmenistan.  Blanket permission is limited to registered 
U.S. military aircraft.  Civil reserve air fleet and DoD 
contract carriers are not eligible for the automatic 
clearance.  In spite of these limitations, the Turkmenistan 
 
ASHGABAT 00000837  002 OF 007 
 
 
blanket number 999C is considered vital to maintaining an 
effective western air bridge to U.S. forces in Afghanistan. 
A team from AFCENT, Central Command's air component, recently 
visited Turkmenistan to explore ways the U.S. could assist 
Turkmenistan's National Civil Aviation Service to increase 
the number of U.S. overflights.  The team also addressed 
issues that led to overflights being temporarily cut off in 
April, which were linked to air navigation charges levied 
against the USAF.  In addition to overflight permission, the 
Turkmen government allows the U.S. to operate a small gas and 
go operation at Ashgabat Airport to refuel U.S. aircraft. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The current position of the Turkmen government 
regarding transshipment of U.S. cargo to Afghanistan is that 
it would not agree to such an arrangement.  Turkmenistan has 
several factors to consider if it were to change its position 
on the Northern Distribution Network (NDN).  The first is 
Turkmenistan's own stated neutrality, which prevents them 
from participating in military alliances or agreements.  This 
highlights the unique status of our extant overflight 
agreement.  Also, a Turkmen desire to avoid possible negative 
Russian perceptions of military cooperation with the United 
States appears to affect their decision making. 
 
¶5. (SBU) CENTCOM and Turkmenistan's military maintain an 
active military-to-military cooperation plan and a productive 
counter-narcotics program.  CENTCOM Counter Narcotics has 
funded several mil-to-mil events as well as three 
border-crossing checkpoints (BCCs), on the borders of Iran 
(Altyn Asyr), Afghanistan (Imamnazar), and Uzbekistan 
(Farap).  The third BCC is nearing completion at Farap; the 
Nevada National Guard has facilitated construction of the 
BCCs through the State Partnership Program.  CENTCOM intends 
to build another two BCCs as well as provide equipment and 
training to the State Counter Narcotics Service and State 
Border Service.  U.S. security assistance programs focus on 
improving the communications capability of the Turkmenistan 
armed forces in the areas of emergency response and border 
security, English language ability, in addition to building a 
future leadership with western principles.  With the 
assistance of the Embassy's Export Control and related Border 
Security (EXBS) program, the Embassy works to strengthen 
Turkmenistan's border security and increase their ability to 
interdict smuggling of weapons of mass destruction. 
 
ENERGY 
 
¶6. (SBU) Turkmenistan has world-class natural gas reserves, 
but Russia's near monopoly of the country energy export 
routes make it overly beholden to Russia.  The disadvantage 
of this situation has been driven home to the Turkmen 
following the April pipeline explosion and subsequent 
dispute, which halted gas exports to Russia and forced the 
Turkmen to shut down a large part of its gas production. 
Pipeline diversification, including both a pipeline to China 
scheduled for completion in late 2009 and the possibility of 
resurrecting plans for Trans-Caspian and Trans-Afghanistan 
pipelines that would avoid the Russian routes, and 
construction of high-voltage electricity lines to transport 
excess energy to Turkmenistan's neighbors, including 
Afghanistan, would not only enhance Turkmenistan's economic 
and political sovereignty, but also help fuel new levels of 
prosperity throughout the region.  Berdimuhamedov has told 
U.S. interlocutors he recognizes the need for more options 
and has taken the first steps to this end.  He will require 
encouragement and assistance from the international community 
if he is to maintain a course of diversification once 
relations with Gazprom are patched up, as is likely given the 
mutual importance of their relationship. 
 
¶7. (SBU) One of the biggest challenges that Turkmenistan's 
hydrocarbon sector will have to face, if it is to succeed in 
pipeline diversification, is the need for increased 
natural-gas production.  Turkmenistan produced a reported 
 
ASHGABAT 00000837  003 OF 007 
 
 
70.4 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2008, a figure that barely 
meets its existing domestic needs and export commitments. 
Large increases will be needed as/if new pipelines come 
online.  While Turkmenistan has welcomed foreign companies to 
work its offshore (primarily oil) Caspian blocks, it has up 
to now largely rejected allowing foreign energy companies to 
work its onshore gas fields, maintaining that it can handle 
the drilling itself.  But onshore natural gas production 
offers some tough challenges, including ultra-deep, 
high-pressure, high-sulphur, sub-salt drilling, which 
requires special skills and technologies and massive 
investment.  One Western analyst suggested that costs could 
run as high as $100 billion over the next five years.  No one 
outside of the Turkmen government believes Turkmenistan has 
either the skills or the financial resources needed.  U.S. 
policy has been to promote onshore production by major 
Western oil companies.  President Berdimuhamedov has 
repeatedly told visiting U.S. officials that foreign 
companies would not be granted production sharing agreements 
for the development of onshore gas deposits.  Given the 
technological challenges of extracting onshore gas, that 
policy could change in the future. 
 
¶8. (SBU) U.S. integrated energy companies such as ExxonMobil, 
Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Marathon continue to express 
interest in working with the Turkmen to develop energy 
projects, but the Turkmen have shown little reciprocal 
interest.  Most major firms have proposed onshore production 
projects that go against Turkmen government policy of 
controlling onshore development itself.  President 
Berdimuhamedov appears convinced that, given enough time, the 
Turkmen themselves will be able to hire the necessary 
technology and expertise to allow them to manage development 
of these resources. 
 
DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS 
 
¶9. (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov has made a public 
commitment to bring Turkmenistan's laws and practices -- 
including those relating to human rights -- up to 
international standards.  On his order, the country's legal, 
human rights and legislative bodies are in the process of 
rewriting numerous laws and codes, including on religion and 
public organizations, family, criminal, and criminal 
procedure codes.  Last September, a revised Constitution was 
adopted that eliminated many of former President Niyazov's 
strange addenda and contained some rights-related textual 
changes that the international community had suggested.  Most 
notably, it eliminated the Halk Maslahaty (Peoples' Council), 
an oversized, bureaucratic, and largely rubber stamp body 
whose powers have largely been transferred to the Mejlis 
(Parliament).  Parliamentary elections, held in December, 
were assessed by the OSCE as neither free nor fair and 
elicited little public interest. 
 
¶10. (SBU) In seeking to promote democratic development and 
strengthened respect for human rights, the Embassy is working 
with the Institute of Democracy and Human Rights, which is 
one of the government bodies most open to and cooperative 
with foreign donors.  Areas for cooperation include 
information exchange, the provision of legal and technical 
expertise, and support for increased access to information. 
The Institute has fully embraced USAID as a valued partner. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Although the president is making progress in 
overhauling Turkmenistan's laws, human rights practices 
continue to lag behind the president's intentions.  RFE/RL 
reporters continue to experience considerable harassment from 
security forces.  While the Turkmen have made some 
improvement in their treatment of minority religious groups, 
small evangelical Christian religious groups continue to 
experience problems with registration, and Jehovah's 
Witnesses have experienced harassment.  We continue to hear 
reports that some individuals are being barred from travel 
 
ASHGABAT 00000837  004 OF 007 
 
 
abroad.  While Berdimuhamedov in 2007 released Turkmenistan's 
former Grand Mufti, imprisoned since 2005 under charges of 
complicity in the 2002 assassination attempt against Niyazov, 
only a handful of other individuals who were also imprisoned 
for alleged involvement in the attack have been released. 
Mukhametkuli Aymuradov, a political prisoner held since 1995, 
was released in May upon completion of his sentence. 
 
FOREIGN POLICY 
 
¶12. (SBU) Like Niyazov, Berdimuhamedov has emphasized 
"neutrality" as the hallmark of the country's foreign policy. 
 Nevertheless, he has put an unprecedented emphasis on 
foreign affairs to repair Turkmenistan's international and 
regional relations and to become a respected player on the 
international stage.  Trips by President Berdimuhamedov late 
last year to Germany and Austria and earlier this year to 
Uzbekistan, Iran and Russia have been opportunities for the 
Turkmen to reaffirm their multi-directional foreign policy. 
He has been invited to France later this year as well as 
Italy.  Under the president's leadership, Turkmenistan has 
reached out to participate actively in regional 
organizations.  He has met with all the leaders in the 
region, as well as with those of other countries of 
importance to Turkmenistan.  China has a strong and growing 
commercial presence in Turkmenistan, and continues to court 
the president through a series of high-level commercial and 
political visits.  Presidents Berdimuhamedov and Gul (Turkey) 
have exchanged visits, but bilateral relations continue to be 
colored more by the image of Turkey's lucrative trade and 
construction contracts that are eating up large amounts of 
money from the national budget.  Berdimuhamedov has held 
positive meetings with high-level leaders of international 
organizations (including both the UN and the Organization for 
Security and Cooperation in Europe) that have led to 
cooperative relationships.  The international financial 
institutions play a minor role in Turkmenistan, with the 
exception of the EBRD. 
 
REGIONAL POLICY 
 
¶13. (SBU) Accompanying the president's focus on reaching out 
to Turkmenistan's near and more distant neighbors has been an 
increased effort to participate in and cooperate with 
regional fora.  During President Berdimuhamedov's tenure, 
Turkmenistan has become an increasingly active player in a 
number of regional fora, including the (counter-narcotics) 
Central Asian Regional Information and Coordination Center, 
the Central Asian Trade Investment Framework Agreement 
mechanism (TIFA), and the European Union's Central Asian 
Troika process.  Cognizant of its neutral status, it has 
bolstered its previous participation in meetings of the 
Commonwealth of Independent States and in its participation 
-- as an observer -- in the Shanghai Cooperation 
Organization, as well as in NATO with the status of a 
Partnership-for-Peace country.  Turkmenistan is also 
participating in regional reconstruction efforts in 
Afghanistan and sponsoring a number of Afghan students at its 
universities and pedagogical institutes.  In early April, the 
Turkmen government agreed to bolster by 2010 the electricity 
it is already selling to Afghanistan by an additional 300 
megawatts.  The president also agreed to extend the current 
price at which Turkmenistan is selling electricity to 
Afghanistan -- 2 cents per kilowatt hour -- to 2010. 
Concerning Afghanistan, Foreign Minister Meredov responded to 
a briefing on current U.S. policy by saying that Turkmenistan 
also sees the problems in Afghanistan and Pakistan as linked, 
and that they cannot be solved simply by military means. 
Meredov praised the USD 1.5 billion for social and economic 
aid for Pakistan.  Turkmenistan donates humanitarian aid to 
Afghanistan, particularly in the northern part of the 
country, constructing schools, hospitals and other projects. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Although Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have made 
 
ASHGABAT 00000837  005 OF 007 
 
 
progress in resolving many of the issues that had troubled 
their relationship, delimitation of their boundary in the 
Caspian remains unresolved, with implications for the 
feasibility of a Trans-Caspian pipeline.  Turkmen leaders 
seem to believe that they have shown the most flexibility and 
are looking for reciprocity from the Azeris.  Turkish 
President Gul has sought to be helpful, urging Berdimuhamedov 
at a tri-lateral summit last November to diversify gas 
exports to include Europe.  Berdimuhamedov reportedly 
welcomed the suggestion, as he has other overtures on behalf 
of the Nabucco project, but the Turkmen have yet to 
explicitly commit to supply gas to Nabucco. 
ECONOMY AND FINANCE 
 
¶15. (SBU) The global financial crisis does not appear to have 
had an immediate impact in Turkmenistan.  The Ashgabat 
construction boom and announcements of other capital 
investment projects continue apace.  On the other hand, oil 
revenues have dried up since the April pipeline explosion 
that cut gas exports to Russia.  Although the pipeline was 
restored within a few days, shipments did not resume.  As a 
result, Turkmenistan is reportedly losing some $250 million 
in earnings each week the stoppage continues.  There are no 
indications that the loss in earnings has caused the Turkmen 
government any financial discomfort, given the availability 
of past earnings held in a stabilization fund. 
 
¶16. (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov has stated repeatedly, in 
many fora, that he wants to develop an international-standard 
market economy and to promote foreign investment.  To those 
ends, Turkmenistan re-denominated its currency on January 1, 
converting 5,000 old manats into one new manat, following 
last year's elimination of the currency's dual exchange 
rates.  The president has stated that some state enterprises 
will be privatized -- though not in "strategic" sectors like 
oil and gas, electricity, textiles, construction, 
transportation, and communications.  He has signed a new 
foreign investment law, which, among other things, guarantees 
resident foreign businessmen and their families one-year, 
multi-entry visas, and approved changes to the tax code.  The 
president divided the overworked Ministry of Economy and 
Finance into two bodies -- a Ministry of Economy and 
Development, and a Ministry of Finance, and he created a 
Supreme Audit Chamber with the goal of providing greater 
oversight of government spending.  In a notable development, 
the president also announced that he will abolish the opaque 
extrabudgetary funds that were prone under his predecessor to 
misuse and corruption.  Finally, the state has slowly begun 
to raise the price of electricity and price of vehicle fuel. 
These measures could be part of an early effort to phase out 
the state's extensive and tremendously expensive subsidies 
system. 
 
¶17. (SBU) Even though the president has reshaped his 
bureaucracy, put in place the structures that theoretically 
should help promote a market economy, and opened Turkmenistan 
to cooperation with IFIs, the lack of basic understanding and 
bureaucratic capacity remains an enormous impediment to 
change.  New reforms are being rolled out with inadequate 
preparation, understanding of their consequences and 
explanation -- and are leading to increased public 
dissatisfaction.  USAID is working to increase human capacity 
in several new government institutions, to prepare the 
strategy to support private sector development, and to 
support the introduction of International Financial Reporting 
Standards in Turkmenistan. 
 
MEDIA 
 
¶18. (SBU) While most of Turkmenistan's media remains 
state-controlled, President Berdimuhamedov has emphasized the 
need for reform, calling for more creativity and more 
international and political news to better inform readers and 
viewers.  Simultaneously, however, he has noted that a 
 
ASHGABAT 00000837  006 OF 007 
 
 
principal role of the media is to stimulate patriotism and 
support for reform efforts, and there is no official 
discussion of allowing independent media to develop.  Within 
this context, state media have shown gradually increasing 
openness, but still much uncertainty and a lack of capacity 
in attempting to fulfill the president's demands.  In 
particular, the Ministry of Culture and Broadcasting has 
asked specifically for U.S. experts and assistance to further 
develop Turkmenistan's news media.  This has led to 
unprecedented Embassy access to and contact with state media, 
but also so far to only minimal improvements in 
newsgathering, editing and production techniques.  Both 
broadcast and print media have started to cover a wider range 
of topics, but would not even think of challenging or 
criticizing government policies.  These limits are a result 
of strict self-censorship -- no one wants to be the first to 
try an "unapproved" innovation.  USAID recently supported a 
study tour for state media specialists to Kazakhstan, but we 
believe there remains potential for coaxing Turkmenistan's 
media further along the road to providing more and better 
information. 
 
CONTINUED OBSTACLES TO COOPERATION IN EDUCATION 
 
¶19. (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov and his officials 
repeatedly emphasize that reforming the education sector has 
been one of their top priorities, and he has said to U.S. 
visitors the hardest task is to change the mentality of a 
people.  Standard schooling has returned to the ten-year 
model of the Soviet era from Niyazov's nine-year standard. 
University education has returned to the previous standard of 
five years, instead of Niyazov's model of two years of study 
and two years of work.  Graduate study programs resumed in 
September 2008 following a many-year hiatus, but there 
appears to be a real lack of expertise and direction to make 
these successful.  And yet, to date, the president's (and 
government's) focus has been more on improving the shell than 
on reforming the core of the educational system.  While there 
has been little emphasis placed up to now on retraining 
teachers or on modernizing the curricula, there have been 
some clear signs that the government may be considering 
curricula changes for institutions of higher education.  In 
particular, the Minister of Education is eager to re-start a 
Texas A&M partnership that would reform Turkmenistan's sole 
business education program to meet American standards over 
the next 3-4 years, among many other USG or other Western 
proposals to which he has responded favorably.  At lower 
levels, however, the system continues to constrain individual 
initiative and block suggestions for improvements and reforms 
from reaching the Minister.  In particular, many returned 
exchange participants are prevented or discouraged from 
returning to their places of work or study. 
 
¶20. (SBU) Action on U.S.-sponsored educational programs is 
focused in USAID and the Embassy's Public Diplomacy section. 
In 2008, the U.S. Government sponsored 156 Turkmenistan 
citizens to participate in the Embassy's FLEX (high-school), 
UGRAD (college-level), Turkmenistan AUCA Scholarship program 
(TASP), Teachers Excellence and Achievement (TEA), Muskie, 
Fulbright, Humphrey and other exchange programs.  Through its 
Internet Access and Training Program, USAID is supporting 
efforts to introduce interactive and multimedia learning 
approaches to the education sector. 
 
COUNTER-NARCOTICS COOPERATION 
 
¶21. (SBU) Turkmenistan has serious problems with narcotics 
trafficking and addiction, primarily opiates from 
Afghanistan.  In January 2008, Berdimuhamedov established and 
funded the new State Counter-Narcotics Servie with DEA-like 
responsibilities for both interdiction and demand-reduction 
efforts.  Still, the effort involves building the new 
agency's infrastructure and capacity from the ground up.  The 
Turkmen side has welcomed U.S. training and equipment.  With 
 
ASHGABAT 00000837  007 OF 007 
 
 
a promised infusion of $10 million in CENTCOM 
counter-narcotics funds in FY 09 and the possibility of an 
increased amount in FY 10, the Embassy country team is now 
working with the Counter-Narcotics Service to most 
effectively provide assistance to Turkmen counter-narcotics 
efforts.  These efforts have led to the presence of a 
long-term TDY DEA special agent to pave the way for a 
permanent DEA presence. 
MILES