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P 160957Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2664
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANTANANARIVO 000526 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/EPS AND AF/E - MBEYZEROV 
ADDIS FOR USAU - JMAYBURY 
ADDIS FOR AMBASSADOR YAMAMOTO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: PROPOSED TALKING POINTS FOR JULY 22 
ICG MEETING 
 
REF: ANTANANARIVO 304 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The second consultative meeting of the 
international contact group (ICG) on Madagascar will be 
hosted by the African Union in Addis Ababa July 22.  This 
meeting presents an opportunity to shore up cohesiveness 
within the international community to ensure that all ICG 
members continue to send consistent, unified signals to the 
de facto transition government (HAT) and other Malagasy 
parties.  Paragraph three contains suggested talking points 
for use at the meeting, and paragraph four provides reference 
background on relevant events since the first ICG 
consultative meeting April 30th.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The second consultative meeting of the international 
contact group (ICG) on the situation in Madagascar will be 
hosted by the African Union in Addis Ababa July 22.  ICG 
members (EU, Indian Ocean Commission, OIF, SADC, UN, Security 
Council Perm 5 and 3 African non-permanent members, and 
possibly also COMESA) will discuss efforts to return to 
constitutional order in Madagascar since the first 
consultative meeting of April 30 (reftel).  Several ICG 
members are planning to send senior representatives from 
their capitals to attend the meeting.  Notably, France, which 
is highly engaged in an ambivalent way on the ground here, 
reportedly plans to send Stephane Gompertz, A/S equivalent 
for Africa at the Quai d'Orsay.  The Ambassador was informed 
by the leaders of the TIM delegation that all four Malagasy 
delegations had been invited by AU Envoy Ablasse Ouedraogo to 
attend a session on July 21 or 22, perhaps indicating that 
the AU intends to try to maintain its lead role in the 
negotiations.  The four envoys (former Swazi Prime Minister 
Themba Dlamini of SADC, Ouedraogo for the AU, former Malian 
Foreign Minister Tiebile Drame for the UN, and former 
Togolese Prime Minister Edem Kodjo of the OIF) will also meet 
on July 21, presumably to sort out leadership questions 
between the AU and SADC in the negotiation process.  SADC has 
staked out a claim to this position by naming former 
Mozambican President Chissano as its mediator (rather than a 
simple "envoy"), bolstered by a team including Dlamini, a 
former foreign minister of Mozambique, a former defense 
minister of South Africa, and legal experts from Angola and 
Mauritius. 
 
¶3. (SBU) This ICG meeting presents an opportunity to shore up 
solidarity within the international community to ensure that 
all members are sending the same signals to the Malagasy 
transition authority (HAT) and other political actors.  In 
our view, it is important to support SADC, the regional 
entity, as the lead mediator in this process, while ensuring 
meaningful but subordinate roles for the AU, UN and others. 
Without cohesiveness among the mediators and among the 
international community, the ICG negotiation process has 
little chance of success. During the ICG meeting, U.S. 
officials should urge all members to refrain from taking 
actions that legitimize the HAT and should encourage all 
members to pressure the HAT to engage in negotiations rather 
then moving unilaterally towards elections.  While time is 
important and the situation here remains urgent (in part, 
because of the AGOA eligibility timetable and the devastating 
impact of AGOA ineligibility on the local economy), it is 
more important to hold elections in a consensual manner, even 
if soing so delays the process; the alternative of early but 
illegitimate elections will solve nothing and must be 
avoided.  Following are suggested talking points for use by 
U.S. officials during the ICG meeting: 
 
-- The U.S. thanks the AU for convening this meeting.  We 
continue to support the AU, SADC, UN, and the OIF in their 
efforts to promote the restoration of constitutional order 
and the rule of law in Madagascar.  We applaud the tireless 
efforts of the mediation team during May and June to move 
this process forward, as well as the efforts of SADC Mediator 
Chissano this month to usher the Malagasy delegations back to 
the negotiating table.  We support SADC's assumption of the 
lead role in the negotiations as the relevant regional 
organization, closest to the situation on the ground. 
 
-- The U.S. views this situation in the context of the 
recent, alarming increase in the incidence of coups d'etat in 
Africa and applauds the AU for its strong leadership in 
condemning and sanctioning all unconstitutional changes of 
power. 
 
-- We reiterate the views expressed by the ICG members in 
 
ANTANANARI 00000526  002 OF 004 
 
 
April that a consensual political process leading to free, 
fair, and unbiased presidential elections at the earliest 
possible date is the only way out of the present crisis. 
Unilaterally-organized elections will not be viewed as 
legitimate by the other political factions and the 
international community, and will only perpetuate the cycle 
of political crises in Madagascar, with an attendant risk of 
renewed violence. 
 
-- We reiterate the points made in an April 24 joint AU-UN 
communiquQ in Antananarivo expressing deep concern about 
ongoing intimidation, calling for the parties to engage in 
dialogue, and reminding of the importance of 
respecting human rights in Madagascar.  We remain deeply 
concerned about the suppression of media freedoms and arrests 
of political prisoners by the high transition authority 
(HAT). 
 
--  We therefore call on the HAT to take concrete steps as 
soon as possible to re-establish the rule of law in 
Madagascar.  Doing so is critical to creationg a climate for 
reconciliation among the parties, and is also a pre-requisite 
for the renewal of AGOA eligibility on which many jobs and a 
large part of Madagascar's export economy depend.  Meeting 
the established criteria for AGOA eligibility is the 
responsibility of the Malagasy authorities, not the USG. 
 
--  At the same time, we call on all parties to this 
political impasse to compromise, to avoid upping the ante 
with additional, often peripheral demands, and to desist from 
all actions and statements that complicate or aggravate the 
delicate political sitation in Madagascar. 
 
--  Finally, the U.S. expresses our view that the Group and 
its members should continue to act in a concerted manner to 
put pressure on the illegal authorities in Madagascar, as 
well as on the other political movements, to seriously engage 
in negotiations with a view to achieving consensus and moving 
rapidly to restore constitutional order.  We encourage all 
Group members to continue their isolation and/or 
non-recognition of the HAT, in their words and in their deeds. 
 
-- While maintaining humanitarian programs essential to the 
well-being of the Malagasy people, many of Madagascar's 
partners, both bilateral and multilateral, have suspended 
their non-humanitarian assistance to the illegal authorities, 
as has the USG.  This useful approach gives teeth, leverage, 
and consequences to our declarations and should therefore be 
continued until concrete actions by the HAT merit a change. 
Continuation of military assistance to the HAT seems 
particularly inappropriate under the circumstances. 
 
¶4. (SBU) For background and easy reference during the 
meeting, the following is a timeline of key events pertaining 
to the Malagasy crisis since the last ICG meeting on April 30: 
 
- May 2: The ICG issued a communiquQ underlining "the 
imperative for a rapid return to constitutional order through 
a consensual process involving all the Malagasy political 
actors and based on respect for the relevant provisions of 
the Constitution".  ICG members agreed to support the 
"process of restoring constitutional order under the auspices 
of the AU."  The communiquQ outlined the following 
objectives: "a clear calendar towards holding free, fair, and 
transparent elections involving all stakeholders under a 
neutral electoral body including representatives of all 
political camps . . .including President Marc Ravalomanana. . 
. in the search for a solution; promotion of consensus among 
the Malagasy parties; respect for the Constitution of 
Madagascar; compliance with relevant AU instruments and the 
international commitments of Madagascar.  The participants 
emphasized the risks associated with any unilateral move to 
legitimize the unconstitutional change that occurred in 
Madagascar and urged the de facto authorities and other 
Malagasy parties to place the interests of Madagascar and the 
search for consensus above all other considerations." 
 
- May - July: ICG member representatives in Madagascar met 
with the High Commissioner on Human Rights May 15, with 
visiting EU representatives May 18, and the Swedish 
Ambassador to the EU July 13.  The AU convened the ICG for 
four meetings between May and July to discuss the status of 
negotiations. 
 
- June 8: COMESA, which has not been involved in mediation 
 
ANTANANARI 00000526  003 OF 004 
 
 
efforts, issued an unhelpful communiquQ following its 13th 
summit in which it called for the return to constitutional 
rule by the return of the democratically elected government 
and "agreed as pronounced by the AU to fully support SADC as 
they take a lead in their efforts to restore constitutional 
order in Madagascar by examining all options including the 
possibility of military intervention."  (Note:  The March 30 
SADC Communique actually made no/no explicit reference to any 
military option; rather it referred vaguely, in article 18, 
to considering "other options to restore constitutional 
normalcy.") 
 
- June 16: The AU and UN envoys announced that the 
negotiations were suspended due to the parties' inability to 
reach an agreement on the terms of an amnesty.  Prior to the 
suspension of negotiations, the four movements had agreed on 
the basic structure of a transition government, but not on 
how to allocate positions, including that of transition 
president.  According to AU principles, with which we agree, 
the leader of the transition government should not be able to 
run for president.  HAT president Andry Rajoelina agreed that 
he would not run, but retracted his statement the following 
day.  He then agreed that he would not run only if the other 
movement leaders agreed also to not run, which they have 
never accepted. 
 
- June 17: The State Department issued the following press 
release:  The United States regrets the suspension of the 
African Union- and United Nations-led mediation process in 
Madagascar.  We applaud the tireless efforts of the mediation 
team to move the process forward, and continue to urge all 
parties to rapidly return to the negotiating table and come 
to agreement on the elements of a consensual transition 
government.  We continue to believe that the only way to 
resolve this crisis is through a consensual political process 
leading to elections at the earliest possible date.  We 
condemn the unconstitutional actions that led to the current 
situation, and categorically reject the use of force as a 
means to resolve this crisis.  We remain impartial and will 
not support unilateral solutions by particular political 
factions, as such moves would not produce a lasting solution 
based on credible, unbiased elections." 
 
- June 20: SADC convened an emergency meeting on Madagascar, 
during which it nominated former Mozambican President 
Chissano as mediator in the Malagasy crisis.  SADC helpfully 
changed its previous position, which had called for the 
unconditional reinstatement of Ravalomanana.  The communiquQ 
issued June 20 "urged all stakeholders to commit themselves 
to peaceful negotiated settlement through dialogue and desist 
from any violent solutions and inflammatory statements which 
may jeopardize and undermine current efforts in bringing 
constitutional normalcy." 
 
- June 24 - July 3: The AU held its 13th summit in Sirte, but 
issued no resolutions on Madagascar. 
 
- June 29 - July 3: The Malagasy transition authority (HAT) 
held regional conferences to discuss various issues, 
including the structure of government, age limits for 
presidential candidates, and the terms of a possible amnesty 
for political actors such as former President Ratsiraka, 
ousted President Ravalomanana, and presidential-hopeful 
Pierrot Rajaonarivelo.  The conferences, which were decried 
as biased and boycotted by the other main political 
movements, were intended to lay the groundwork for a national 
conference that the HAT plans to hold by the end of July. 
The national conference would determine the electoral 
calendar and other related issues. 
 
- July 6-7: A HAT delegation, led by Andry Rajoelina, engaged 
in consultations with the European Union in Brussels under 
Article 96 of the Cotonou Agreement regarding Madagascar's 
compliance with the democracy, rule of law, and human rights 
conditions of that agreement.  The EU issued a statement July 
7 in which it found the HAT's proposals to return to 
constitutional rule unsatisfactory and urged the HAT to 
continue discussions with the Malagasy political forces under 
the auspices of the ICG to reach a consensual agreement 
allowing a return to constitutional order.  The EU decided to 
keep its development programs suspended, with the exception 
of humanitarian aid and other programs directly benefiting 
the people.  A final decision regarding the Euro 630 million 
of frozen aid will be made in early November, when the 
120-day "clock" under Article 96 expires.. 
 
ANTANANARI 00000526  004 OF 004 
 
 
 
- July 9-12: SADC Mediator Chissano visited Madagascar to 
meet with the transition authority (HAT) president Andry 
Rajoelina, representatives of the Zafy, Ratsiraka, and 
Ravalomanana delegations, and civil society.  He met with 
exiled President Ravalomanana July 12 in South Africa, and 
will have been in New York for UN meetings and in Paris for 
discussions with the French and with Ratsiraka before the 
next ICG.  All parties expressed their willingness to return 
to negotiations, but no date or forum has yet been set. 
 
¶5.  (U)  Please note that 'Tana P/E Chief Dovie Holland will 
attend the ICG in support of Ambassador Yamamoto.  She plans 
to arrive in Addis on Monday, July 20, and to depart on 
Thursday, July 23.  Country clearance has been requested 
separately. 
 
MARQUARDT