VZCZCXRO0239
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #0511/01 1901229
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091229Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2641
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000511 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E-MBEYZEROV AND INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: REGIONAL CONFERENCES CONSOLIDATE POWER OF 
ILLEGAL TRANSITION REGIME 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Malagasy "High Transition Authority" (HAT) 
held regional conferences in each of the country's 22 regions from 
June 30 to July 3.  The agenda focused on changing the constitution; 
setting up the fourth republic; reforming political parties, 
communication, and electoral laws; and promoting national 
reconciliation.  Resolutions made during these regional conferences 
are to be discussed during the national conference scheduled - at 
the moment - to be held by the end of July.  The three other 
political movements involved in the SADC/AU/UN negotiations - 
TIM/Ravalomanana, Zafy, and Ratsiraka - boycotted the not-so-neutral 
conferences which they viewed as the illegal transition regime's 
latest attempt to further entrench its de facto hold over the 
country.  END SUMMARY. 
 
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM 
--------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) Conference participants discussed several questions related 
to constitutional reform during the regional meetings held June 30 - 
July 3, including the form of government.  Eighteen regions 
expressed support for the current system of a unified government, 
with the caveat that administrative and financial decentralization 
should be fully implemented.  Only four regions -- Diana (North), 
Atsinanana (East), Analanjirofo (East) and Betsiboka (Center West) 
-- opted for a federal state in order to increase their level of 
autonomy and "get away from the Merina (highland) stronghold." 
Participants in all regions lamented that past regimes had not 
promoted equal development for all regions, but had rather 
concentrated the benefits in the capital.  Either a federal state or 
an effective decentralization with administrative and fiscal 
autonomy were presented as ways in which to avoid uneven 
development. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Participants also considered the question of the age limit 
and restrictions for presidential candidates that should be included 
in the constitution.  Most regions recommended that lower and upper 
age limits be set between 30 and 60 or between 35 and 65 - clearly 
indicating the pro-Rajoelina slant of the conferences.  The change 
of the current minimum age from 40 to 35 would enable Rajoelina to 
run for president, while the upper limit would prevent all former 
presidents - as well as former VPM Pierrot Rajaonarivelo -- from 
running.  Two regions recommended setting no age limit at all, which 
would allow anyone over 18 to run. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Three regions - Diana (North coast), Atsinanana (East 
coast), and Betsiboka (Center West) - agreed that the minimum age 
should remain at 40, surprising observers of this pro-HAT event. 
[NOTE: Diana is influenced by former President Zafy Albert, while 
the Atsinanana region is the cradle of the Ratsiraka clan and of 
AREMA politician Pierrot Rajaonarivelo.  END NOTE.] 
 
AMNESTY 
------- 
¶5. (SBU) The issue of an amnesty, which blocked the most recent 
AU/UN/SADC attempts at mediation, was widely discussed during the 
conferences.  Most regions expressed support for a "general" amnesty 
that would cover all acts perpetrated between January 2002 and 
December 2008.  This is seen as an attempt to exclude the 
Ravalomanana administration from benefiting from an amnesty related 
to the February 7 shootings.  In a few regions, participants called 
for an amnesty covering the period back to 1991.  This would absolve 
officials from the Ratsiraka administration, who may have been 
involved in the August 10, 1991 "slaughter."  Only the Analamanga 
region (where the capital is located) chose a "selective" amnesty 
that would openly not apply to Ravalomanana, with the support of 72% 
of participants. 
 
REQUESTS FOR NEW REGIONS 
------------------------ 
¶6. (SBU) Participants from the Southeastern region of Vatovavy 
Fitovinany proposed that their region be divided into two different 
ones, based on a natural division.  The four districts requesting 
the change argue that the current regional capital fails to serve 
the population due to distance and infrastructure issues.  Another 
similar request came from four districts in the South.  If those two 
requests are approved during the national conference, that would 
bring the total number of regions to 24. 
 
LOGISTICAL SNAGS 
---------------- 
¶7. (SBU) Across the board, the organizers were overwhelmed by 
organizational and logistical problems, with participants more 
numerous than expected - even double for some regions following an 
instruction by the HAT of not excluding anyone who may want to 
participate.  Complaints about allowances and catering led to the 
suspension of the conferences in some regions for hours.  Rajoelina 
himself "confessed" that the HAT had learned some lessons from the 
disorganization, but rapidly shifted the blame on to the organizing 
 
ANTANANARI 00000511  002 OF 002 
 
 
committee, composed of civil society members. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶8. (SBU) Many observers noted that the conferences were manipulated 
by the HAT, as the discussions during the meetings seemed 
pre-determined, and many participants were given forms containing 
specific talking points.  On the other hand, HAT supporters 
denounced alleged manipulation by the Zafy, Ratsiraka and 
Ravalomanana movements, which publicly announced a boycott of the 
conferences, but reportedly sent partisans to influence the 
discussions and push their agendas on federalism and a general 
amnesty.  The conferences - touted by the HAT as giving a voice to 
"the people" -- are one more example of the HAT's efforts to 
consolidate its de facto power and more deeply entrench itself in 
its present position.  The national conference, if held this month, 
is likely to go further down a unilateral road that increases the 
divide between Rajoelina and the current opposition.  So far, the 
requirement for "consensus" has given blocking power to those who 
don't want any agreement at all -- and therefore is tending now to 
be dismissed by the HAT as an unreasonable or impossible goal. 
However, to find a tenable solution to the ongoing crisis, there 
remains the need for a minimum level of inclusion and consensus - 
lest the chosen way forward not solve anything at all.  So far, the 
HAT remains far from finding that level.  END COMMENT. 
 
MARQUARDT