VZCZCXRO0050
RR RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAK #1093 2110925
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 300925Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0361
INFO RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 6078
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS ANKARA 001093 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: CVIS PREL PGOV PHUM SOCI SCUL TU IR
SUBJECT: Iranian Applicants Intimidated Yet Hopeful 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: This week's visa applicants representing a 
spectrum of Iranian society updated CONOFF regarding the unrest in 
Iran. In line with earlier reporting from Ankara, all expressed 
shock that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took the election and expressed hope 
that the situation in Iran would change for the better. They noted 
that an environment of fear has reduced the number of protesters on 
the street but that most Iranians are still hopeful the opposition 
will succeed. The applicants expressed that Supreme Leader Ali 
Khamanei is incapable of regaining control and risks a deteriorating 
security situation if he does not compromise. END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) While the opposition remains active, all applicants 
acknowledged that the government's efforts to counter them have 
reduced their magnitude. A young couple from Mashhad estimated that 
from the peak of post election protests about 20 percent still 
openly demonstrate. They cited beatings, killings, and rapid arrests 
by plain-clothed police officers loyal to Khamanei as creating an 
environment of fear among Mashhadis. They believed ten thousand 
opposition supporters are now in prison. Upon leaving Iran 
authorities interrogated them specifically about any intentions to 
go to the US Embassy in Turkey. One Tehrani noted his 15-year-old 
relative disappeared during earlier protests and was found when, 
after harassment and one month confinement, authorities called his 
parents to pick him up far from Tehran. One applicant said he has 
distanced himself from friends that participate in the opposition 
out of fear. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Applicants also described government efforts to halt the 
free flow of information about the civil unrest. Many applicants 
revealed that international phone card services that circumvent 
monitoring of direct numbers were cut off by authorities for three 
weeks following the initial protests. Others complained that it is 
now much more expensive to call internationally. One applicant noted 
that government controlled television was broadcasting "unbelievable 
lies" and that one "would not believe what is really going on 
without being there". He added that the situation is terrible and 
hoped the world would take action to help the Iranian people. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Applicants of all age ranges noted that the situation in 
Iran cannot revert back to the way it was and expressed hope for 
positive democratic change and better relations with the West. One 
applicant opined that a "the souls of Iranians have brightened" with 
a hope that Khamanei cannot quell. He added that calls of "God is 
Great" still ring from Tehran homes every evening in defiance of 
Khamanei. Others noted that Iranians do not want religious 
governance having seen its political and economic corruption and 
said that opposition pressure will force Khamanei to change. A 
Tehrani business owner said there are calls to come out every 
Thursday to protest. He added that in earlier rallies only sixteen 
thousand showed up for Ahmadinejad while three million came to 
support Mousavi. He explained if there is no result from the 
protests, the situation will escalate. A couple of applicants 
believe that once the opposition forms a concrete platform and calls 
on the population to come out, mass support would result despite 
government intimidation. They explained that the recent challenges 
to the system have led people to regain hope for change. When asked 
about Mousavi, applicants noted that he became the default leader by 
circumstance and due to his relative greater support for democracy. 
They also cited Ahmadinejad's reluctance to leave Iran for regional 
and international conferences as a sign of rifts in the regime. 
Across the board, applicants expected greater democracy, a better 
economy, and better relations with the West as an unavoidable result 
of the recent events. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) When asked about perceptions of what the US should or 
should not do regarding the current unrest in light of US-Iran 
history, an applicant agreed that the US walks a thin line of being 
labeled as self-interested rather than aiding a popular democratic 
movement. He added that in order to succeed the people of Iran must 
be the sole impetus in the fight for democracy. He emphasized 
Iranians must have the will to "put their own souls" in the struggle 
to achieve democracy. He expressed that the stance taken by 
President Barack Obama was correct but would improve if he increased 
his calls against human rights abuses against the people of Iran. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) COMMENT: Before the civil unrest in Iran many applicants 
demonstrated a desire for greater freedoms, but would not take the 
next step to openly challenge the regime. Most applicants 
demonstrated that they were capable of working within the repressive 
restraints of the system. Now many applicants are showing varying 
degrees of support for the opposition against the regime. The fact 
that some applicants spoke passionately about the fight for freedom 
and democracy against the regime demonstrates a restoration of 
confidence in the power of the Iranian people in opposition to their 
rulers. END COMMENT. 
 
JEFFREY