O 021402Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5332
INFO AMEMBASSY ASMARA 
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
USEU BRUSSELS
USMISSION GENEVA 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
DIA WASHDC
CJTF HOA
NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 001556 
 
 
STATE DEPARTMENT AF/E, AF/PDPA, OES, AND PRM/AFR 
USAID for AFR EGAST, CTHOMPSON 
DCHA/AA SCROMER 
DCHA/OFDA PMORRIS, KCHANNELL 
DCHA/FFP JDWORKEN, PMOHAN 
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN, RTILSWORTH, AND LPANASUK 
NAIROBI FOR OFDA/ECARO JMYER, GPLATT, RFFPO NCOX 
USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG 
NEW YORK FOR DMERCADO 
USEU FOR PBROWN 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH, RMA 
NSC FOR CPRATT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID PHUM SENV EAGR PGOV ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: HUMANITARIAN SITUATION DETERIORATING 
 
REF:  Addis Ababa 1113 
      Addis Ababa 1348 
      Addis Ababa 1373 
      Addis Ababa 1498 
 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  The humanitarian situation in large parts of Ethiopia is 
deteriorating due to successive seasons of failed rains evidenced by 
increased food insecurity and subsequent upward spikes in admissions 
of children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) to therapeutic 
feeding centers.  The key indicator for a more widespread 
deterioration will be the performance of the kiremt (summer) rains 
which account for approximately 90 percent of total crop production. 
 Current analyses indicate that the kiremt rains are projected to be 
normal to below-normal in the majority of the country negatively 
affecting many areas already food insecure. 
 
¶2.  Although the belg (spring) crop assessment is currently underway 
and results are not expected for at least a month, informal reports 
from the field indicate that the rains were poor and sporadic, thus 
negatively impacting belg crop production as well as  planting for 
the main harvest (meher) in October - January. 
 
¶3.  The humanitarian community estimates that a minimum of 6.6 
million people are currently in need of relief food aid (Reftel 
Addis 1498), in contrast to the Government of Ethiopia's (GoE) 
official figure of 4.9 million.  These figures do not include the 
7.5 million people currently receiving assistance through the 
Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP).  Aggravating factors include 
the projected United Nations World Food Program (WFP) relief food 
pipeline break in mid-July, infestation of locusts, high incidence 
of malaria, expected increases in the number of cholera (acute 
watery diarrhea) cases and the first confirmed cases of H1NI.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------ 
Belg (Spring) Rainfall Pattern 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  The belg rains were poor or failed over large areas of Ethiopia, 
according to reports from the GoE National Meteorological Agency 
(NMA) and the USAID-supported Famine Early Warning Systems Network 
(FEWS NET).  In the southern Somali Region, the rains failed in 
almost all of Gode, Afder and Liban Zones, and underperformed 
significantly in Warder Zone.  FEWS NET reports poor belg 
performance in the northeastern areas of Amhara which are almost 
completely dependent on the belg crop production.  Belg rains were 
below normal in the lowlands of Oromiya region and southern parts of 
Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region (SNNPR).  The 
spring rains (sugum) in Afar and northern Somali Region were poor 
and follow three consecutive seasons of similar inadequate 
rainfall. 
 
--------------------------------- 
The Importance of the Belg Rains 
--------------------------------- 
 
-- On Belg Crop Production  -- 
 
¶5.  Areas which are almost solely dependent on belg crop production 
already face food insecurity manifested by increased admissions to 
Outpatient Therapeutic Feeding Programs (OTPs) of children suffering 
from severe acute malnutrition (SAM).  These areas include the 
northeastern highlands of Amhara; the southern agro-pastoral areas 
of Somali Region and neighboring lowlands of Oromiya Region; and 
SNNPR. 
 
¶6.  Zones in eastern SNNPR, including Wolayta, Kembata Tembaro, and 
Hadiya depend on belg rains for the production of green maize 
harvested in June.  FEWS NET reports that due to delayed planting 
and erratic performance of the belg rains, the hunger months will 
now extend at least two months to August/September. 
 
-- On Meher Crop Production -- 
 
¶7.  The meher harvest (October to January) which accounts for over 
ninety percent of total crop production is highly dependent on the 
belg rains for preparation of land and planting of long cycle, 
high-yielding crops such as maize and sorghum that normally account 
for up to 50 percent of total annual production.  Due to the 
poor/failed belg rains, many farmers resorted to planting lower 
yielding short-cycle crops.  As a result, FEWS NET anticipates 
reduced meher crop production.   Belg rains are also needed for seed 
setting and flowering of coffee, the main national export commodity. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Impact of Failed/Poor Belg Rains On Nutritional Status 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶8.  Admission rates to OTPs have already risen dramatically in 
certain sweet potato-dependent areas of SNNPR (Reftel 1373) and 
similar scenarios are unfolding in parts of Oromiya, Tigray and 
Somali Regions.  USAID/OFDA partner GOAL has been requested by the 
Oromiya Regional Health Bureau (RHB) to open OTPs in four West 
Hararghe woredas.  GOAL reports that "woreda officials are saying 
openly that they will leave the area unless there is an urgent 
intervention as they are afraid of the people's response if nothing 
is done."  GOAL is also currently fielding requests from the RHB to 
open OTPs in Amhara Region. 
 
¶9.  Unofficial reports from members of the multi-agency nutrition 
survey conducted in seven livelihood zones of the Somali Region 
indicate rates of global acute malnutrition (GAM) ranging from 14.5 
to 21.9 percent.  (Comment:  While the emergency GAM threshold is 15 
percent, pastoralists in the Somali Region typically exhibit a high 
GAM baseline. However, it is worrisome that the surveys were 
conducted at a time when rates should be at their lowest point for 
the year.  End Comment).  Rates are expected to spike upwards as 
much of Somali Region moves through the four-month dry season. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Normal Kiremt (Summer) Rains Are Critical 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶10.  Normal kiremt rains will be essential to prevent broad swaths 
of Ethiopia from experiencing a food security crisis especially 
considering that many areas experienced poor kiremt rains in 2008. 
However recent National Meteorological Agency reports predict normal 
to below-normal rainfall in eastern and northwestern crop producing 
areas.  If this occurs, this would be the second consecutive season 
of below normal production in the eastern meher cropping areas. 
 
-------------------- 
Aggravating Factors 
-------------------- 
 
¶11.  WFP reports that the relief food pipeline will break in 
mid-July.  (Comment: Without food at the household level, children 
discharged from OTPs will quickly relapse into severe acute 
malnutrition.  End Comment).  The United Nations Food and 
Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that locust swarms have been 
confirmed in seven regions, including areas where there is no 
previous record of infestation.  Incidence of malaria is above 
normal in several locations already this year and there could be a 
significant malaria spike per the cyclical trend in country. 
Outbreaks of cholera, according to UN OCHA, have been reported in 
Somali, SNNP and Oromiya regions and the caseload is expected to 
increase as the kiremt rains begin. 
 
¶12.  The price of white maize, the cereal most widely consumed by 
the poor, has fallen slightly, but remains 72 percent higher 
compared to the same time period (May) in 2008.  Recent conflict 
over resources in several areas of the country has led to an 
estimated 200,000 internally displaced persons.  The first cases of 
H1N1 have been confirmed in the country, and if there is an increase 
in the severity morbidity rates could quickly increase leading to 
disruption in many sectors.  All of these factors are exacerbated by 
the GoE reluctance to acknowledge higher numbers than the current 
figure of 4.9 million people in need of food aid. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
USAID/Ethiopia and USAID/OFDA Response 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶13.  USAID's Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) 
has provided more than $38 million in humanitarian assistance in FY 
2009 including funding for nutrition programs through NGOs GOAL, IMC 
and CONCERN. 
 
¶14.  USAID/Ethiopia is closely monitoring the humanitarian food 
situation and USAID's Office of Food For Peace (FFP) provided $165 
million in relief food assistance in FY 2009.  The majority of these 
resources has gone to WFP to provide emergency food relief and $60 
million has funded a consortium of NGOs providing emergency food 
assistance.  This complements the USAID/FFP contribution of 
approximately $150 million annually to the GoE's multi-donor 
supported Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) which provides six 
months of predictable transfers to highly food insecure populations. 
 USAID/Ethiopia and USAID/OFDA collaborate and leverage each others' 
resources and play lead roles in various levels of donor, NGO and 
GoE coordination forums. 
 
---------- 
CONCLUSION 
---------- 
 
¶15.  Due to failed/poor belg rains much of Ethiopia will continue to 
experience deepening food insecurity and rising malnutrition rates 
over the next few months.  Failed/poor rains have not only 
negatively affected belg crop production but will also negatively 
impact the yields from the meher harvest in October - December. 
 
¶16.  FEWS NET, based on multiple sources, is predicting normal to 
below-normal kiremt rains.  If these primary summer rains are below 
normal or fail, a much worse food insecurity situation accompanied 
by a continued and rapid rise in the number of severely malnourished 
children is certain to occur.  USAID/Ethiopia and USAID/OFDA will 
continue to coordinate and leverage resources; continue to 
participate in and lead coordination efforts within the humanitarian 
community; and, continue to review other funding requests for 
appropriate and effective relief assistance. 
 
YAMAMOTO