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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK
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DE RUEHYE #0429/01 1691420
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181420Z JUN 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9208
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000429 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR DRL AND EUR/CARC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KJUS AM
SUBJECT: CURIOUS STATISTICS FROM YEREVAN'S MAYORAL ELECTION 
 
REFS: YEREVAN 395 
YEREVAN 390 
YEREVAN 388 
YEREVAN 382 
YEREVAN 372 
 
YEREVAN 00000429  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) Analysis of the results of the May 31 Mayoral Election in 
Yerevan displays a curious pattern: voter turnout was highest in the 
Territorial Electoral Commissions (TECs) most ridden with 
allegations of fraud.  This is most apparent in the results of TECs 
7 and 8, which comprise the troubled district of Malatia-Sebastia. 
Conversely, the opposition Armenian National Congress' (ANC) results 
show that the ANC performed best where voter turnout was lowest, 
most likely because these TECs were not the main targets of ballot 
stuffing and other forms of electoral fraud.  Also interesting was 
the fact that the ANC won only five precincts out of a total 439 
throughout Yerevan, a steep drop-off from the 80-plus it won in the 
disputed 2008 presidential election.  In spite of these statistical 
oddities, it is impossible to know whether fraud had a significant 
impact on the election's final outcome.  End Summary. 
 
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VOTER TURNOUT HIGHEST IN FRADULENT DISTRICTS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In both TECs 7 and 8 (which cover all of Malatia-Sebastia 
and parts of the adjacent Shengavit and Ajapnyak districts), over 40 
of their combined 66 precincts recorded voter turnout of over 60 
percent, compared to an overall average turnout of 53.5 percent. 
(Note:  Some of the precincts topped 70, 80, and 90 percent in voter 
turnout.  See below.  End Note.)  One of the post-election arguments 
aired by the winning Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) was that the 
fraud was limited and could not have had a significant impact on the 
election's outcome.  However, had the CEC invalidated the results of 
all 66 of the precincts in TEC 7 and 8,  RPA votes would have shrunk 
from 47 percent to 42 percent overall, thereby calling into question 
whether their real winning margin was one that got them over the 
forty percent threshold necessary to capture the mayor's seat. 
Also, had the results in TEC 7 and 8 been thrown out, RPA would have 
seen their number of city council seats dip from 35 to 32, while 
Prosperous Armenia's (PA) seats would have risen from 17 to 19, and 
those of ANC's from from 13 to 14. 
 
¶3. (SBU) TECs 1, 7, 8, 11 and 12 registered the highest voter 
turnouts, with TECs 7-8 in Malatia-Sebastia leading the way: 
 
TEC 7, 71 percent average turnout; 
TEC 8, 66 percent; 
TEC 11, 57 percent; 
TEC 12, 56 percent; and 
TEC 1, 53 percent. 
 
These turnout figures correlated strongly to the TECs with the 
highest vote percentages going to the RPA: 
 
TEC 1, 63 percent voted for the RPA 
TEC 11, 56 percent 
TECs 6, 10 and 12, 48 percent 
TEC 7, 46 percent 
TEC 8, 45 percent 
 
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ANC STRONGEST IN TECS WITH LOWEST TURNOUT 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The results of the opposition ANC show that the ANC 
performed best where voter turnout was lowest, most likely because 
these TECs were not the main targets of ballot stuffing and other 
forms of electoral fraud.  The ANC took second place in TECs 1, 4, 
9, 10 and 13, where it tied for second with PA.  The TECs with the 
lowest voter turnouts were the following: 
 
TEC 9, 52 percent (seventh); 
TEC 10, 48 percent (eleventh); 
TEC 4, 45 percent (twelfth); and 
TEC 13, 44 percent (thirteenth[v1]). 
 
Also of note is that the ANC won only five out of Yerevan's 439 
total voting precincts, a steep drop-off from the 80-plus it won in 
the disputed February 2008 presidential election. 
 
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THE PROOF IS IN THE PUDDING 
--------------------------- 
 
YEREVAN 00000429  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) In TEC 7 (that comprises both the adjacent Malatia-Sebastia 
and Ajapnyak districts), 36 percent of the precincts recorded a 
voter turnout of between 60 and 70 percent; 15 percent recorded a 
voter turnout of 70 to 80 percent; and 27 percent of the PECs 
recorded a voter turnout of 80 percent or above.  In TEC 8 
(Malatia-Sebastia and Shengavit), 24 percent of the PECs recorded a 
voter turnout of between 60 and 70 percent; and 27 percent recorded 
a voter turnout of 80 percent or above.  TECs 11 and 12, which 
compose the majority of the Shengavit district, as well as parts of 
the Erebuni district, also show comparatively higher rates of voter 
turnout.  In TEC 11, 29 percent of the precincts recorded a voter 
turnout of between 60 and 70 percent.  In TEC 12 (Shengavit and 
Erebuni), 40 percent of the PECs recorded a voter turnout between 60 
and 70 percent.  In TEC 1, which composes Avan and parts of 
Nor-Nork, 21 percent of the PECs recorded a voter turnout of between 
60 and 70 percent. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶6. (SBU)  It seems beyond coincidental that the TECs that  recorded 
some of the highest vote totals for RPA also registered the highest 
voter turnout numbers -- turnout numbers which, in many of the 
precincts in these TECS, are inconceivably high for a municipal 
election.  It is also reasonable to conclude that the RPA 
concentrated its electoral manipulations in targeted TECs rather 
than spreading the effort throughout the city.  In the end, however, 
we will never know how many votes the RPA won legitimately, and how 
many were fraudulent.  We nevertheless find it hard to believe that 
RPA won fair and square the forty percent of votes it needed to gain 
a majority in the city council, and more importantly, the right to 
elevate its top candidate to the post of mayor.  We also find it 
hard to believe that the ANC won only five precincts in the recent 
election, down from the 80-plus it won in the 2008 presidential 
election. 
 
PENNINGTON