VZCZCXRO0324
RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHYE #0382/01 1551145
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041145Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9138
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0745

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000382 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL KDEM KJUS AM
SUBJECT: LTP REFUSES SEATS ON CITY COUNCIL; PRESIDENT HAILS ELECTION 
AS "SERIOUS STEP FORWARD" 
 
YEREVAN 00000382  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) At the peaceful yet heavily policed post-election June 1 
rally held by the Armenian National Congress (ANC), Levon 
Ter-Petrossian (LTP) denounced Yerevan's May 31 mayoral election as 
the "ugliest election in Armenia's history."  He announced that the 
ANC would not occupy the projected 13 seats it had won on Yerevan's 
new city council and that the next demonstration would be on June 12 
(postponing the previously scheduled and authorized June 2 and June 
3 rallies).  He declared that the ANC would no longer pursue 
dialogue or compromise with the authorities, and that its new goal 
is the resignation of President Sargsian.  Meanwhile, President 
Sargsian hailed the polls as a "serious step forward," noting 
violations only at "some polling stations."  The Council of Europe 
praised the overall conduct of the election as largely democratic, 
despite noting "serious deficiencies."  LTP criticized the Council's 
assessment and the United States and Europe for not having been more 
critical of the disputed 2008 presidential election.   END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
LTP BLASTS ELECTIONS, REFUSES COUNCIL SEATS 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) At its first post-election rally held June 1, a day after 
Yerevan's first election of its mayor and a new city council, LTP 
blasted the poll as "the ugliest election in Armenia's history." 
LTP said that "only one thing is making progress in Armenia," and 
"that is the mechanism for rigging elections."  LTP and other ANC 
leaders condemned the electoral fraud, citing vote-buying as the 
most common abuse and claiming that between 100,000 and 150,000 
Yerevan residents sold their votes to President Sargsian's 
Republican Party of Armenia (RPA). 
 
¶3. (SBU) In front of an estimated 7,000 supporters, LTP declared 
that the ANC would no longer pursue dialogue or compromise with the 
authorities to address the lingering aftermath of the disputed 2008 
presidential election, and that the ANC will instead pursue 
Sargsian's resignation.  While calling Sargsian "an ordinary usurper 
who must be immediately ousted and put on trial," LTP announced that 
he would not rush to repeat the kind of non-stop anti-government 
protests which followed the 2008 election.  LTP also stated that the 
ANC would not regard any document signed by President Sargsian as 
having legal force, in particular those regarding "Turkish-Armenian 
relations or the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict." 
Urging his supporters to remain upbeat, LTP promised to present a 
plan for further opposition actions at the next ANC rally scheduled 
for June 12. 
 
¶4. (SBU) LTP also announced that the the ANC had decided to boycott 
the projected 13 seats it had won in the city's new 65-member city 
council.  (Note:  According to a lawyer from the Central Electoral 
Commission (CEC) whom the Embassy contacted, Armenia's Election code 
envisages no scenario or recourse for when an elected party refuses 
to take the mandate.  The lawyer said that at this point the 
mandates still "belong" to the ANC, and that the ANC theoretically 
should be eligible to claim them in the future.  End Note.)  With 
the ANC seats vacant, only 52 of the council's 65 seats will be 
claimed. 
 
-------------------------------- 
SARGSIAN PUBLICLY HAILS ELECTION 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In a written statement released on June 1, President 
Sargsian welcomed the conduct and results of the election, saying 
they marked a "serious step forward" in the elimination of Armenia's 
culture of electoral fraud.  Part of that statement read that "The 
May 31 elections and the entire pre-election period demonstrated 
that we have managed to solve a considerable part of long-standing 
problems existing in electoral processes and moved forward in 
solving others."  He acknowledged violations in "some polling 
stations" and that he will seek to ensure that "all the guilty are 
identified and strictly punished." 
 
--------------------------------------- 
PROSECUTOR-GENERAL DOWNPLAYS VOTE FRAUD 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Meanwhile, the Prosecutor-General's Office (PGO) on June 1 
publicly urged the CEC to order recounts in eight precincts of the 
Malatia-Sebastia district, which witnessed the largest number of 
fraud instances, with a PGO spokeswoman citing media reports of 
ballot-stuffing and violence against journalists and observers.  The 
ANC so far has not lodged any written election-related complaints, 
deeming them superfluous due to what they view as law enforcement's 
complicity in vote rigging.  The ruling RPA acknowledged problems in 
 
YEREVAN 00000382  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
Malatia-Sebastia but said it was too early to tell whether they had 
a serious impact on the results. 
 
¶7. (SBU) In a June 2 meeting that the Ambassador had scheduled with 
Prosecutor-General Aghvan Hovsepian before the election, Hovsepian 
deplored the irregularities with the vote, but minimized them by 
saying they could not have significantly altered the outcome of the 
election.  He the detailed how the PGO's special working group to 
investigate election-related violations had identified 38 potential 
violations from May 1 through Election Day on May 31.  (Note:  The 
election campaign officially took place from May 2 through May 29. 
End Note.)  Hovsepian noted that the PGO working group had 
personally identified 28 of these potential violations through its 
monitoring of "alarms" in the media, with the balance coming from 
unspecified complainants. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Hovsepian added that out of the 38, four criminal cases had 
been launched, one had been disposed of with a clarification by him, 
and 33 were still "in process," which Hovsepian was at pains to 
qualify.  He said in one of the four criminal cases, two people had 
already been arrested after they independently came forward to admit 
ballot stuffing in one of the voting precincts in Malatia-Sebastia. 
When the Ambassador pressed Hovsepian on the specifics of the 
investigation, namely if investigators had received corroborating 
testimony from officials at the precinct, he said he didn't know, 
because the investigation had begun only at 5:00 pm the evening 
before.  His deputy then interjected that it wasn't an issue, since 
the two suspects "said more than the observers" present at the 
scene.  Hovsepian then said that criminal charges would likely be 
forthcoming in the next days on another of these cases. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
DASHNAKS DO NOT RECOGNIZE VOTE RESULTS 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Also on June 1, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation - 
Dashnaktsutiun (Dashnaks) decried the election as deeply flawed and 
said it will not recognize the official results.  The Dashnaks 
received only 4.7 percent of the vote, failing to win any seats in 
the new city council.  (Note:  The threshold to win seats was 
attaining seven percent of votes cast.  End Note.)  The Dashnaks' 
dismal performance followed its poor showing in the 2008 
presidential election, where it netted only six percent of the vote. 
 Dashnak leaders charged that "once again, what happened was more of 
the same," and alleged widespread vote-buying, use of administrative 
resources by the ruling parties, and voter intimidation by wealthy, 
government-connected figures.  They added that "such elections are a 
manifestation of criminal responsibility."  Although the Dashnaks' 
CEC member signed the preliminary tally released by the CEC on 
Monday morning with "reservations," Dashnak leaders say he will not 
not sign the final vote results due for release later this week. 
 
------------------------------ 
ROAD BLOCKS AND RALLY DYNAMICS 
------------------------------ 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Emboffs estimated attendance to be 7,000 at the 
event-free rally, but noted a significant presence of riot police in 
nearby streets.  ANC supporters appeared to be more fired up than at 
past rallies, especially when one of the ANC election campaign 
managers enumerated the litany of reported voting irregularities 
committed against the ANC in the Malatia-Sebastia district.  It 
appeared that more youth attended this rally than previous ones held 
recently by ANC. 
 
¶11. (SBU) According to RFE/RL, there were numerous eyewitness 
accounts of police roadblocks being mounted ahead of the ANC's rally 
on roadways leading into Yerevan.  Embassy staff and drivers 
dispatched to several of the main highways confirmed the roadblocks 
and police actively stopping buses, minibuses and private vehicles. 
RFE/RL quoted one police officer as saying the police chief had 
ordered the roadblocks as part of a special operation to search for 
weapons and drugs.  (Comment:  Interestingly, these roadblocks so 
far have been mounted only on those days that the ANC holds its 
rallies.  End Comment.) The police officer denied that transport to 
Yerevan was restricted only ahead of opposition protests.  "We are 
not checking anyone.  We are just waiting for a bus," claimed 
another officer holding a notebook with two dozen license plate 
numbers. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶12. (SBU) LTP's criticism of the vote was to be expected, but the 
ANC decision to boycott the new city council comes as somewhat of a 
surprise.  Now that the ANC has finally gained an opportunity to 
enter the government, which it has said it wants, it has decided to 
 
YEREVAN 00000382  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
remain outside.  The ANC is playing this as a response to the 
election fraud, but in our view it also betrays a lack of 
seriousness by LTP and his supporters.  Although LTP no doubt 
intends to remain a thorn in the side of the authorities, his now 
publicly-stated goal of regime change seems little more than an 
effort to rile up his dwindling crowds.  The ANC has an opportunity 
to play a constructive role by representing its constituents at the 
municipal level.  For now, disappointingly, it has simply opted out. 
 
 
YOVANOVITCH