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DE RUEHWL #0159/01 1670448
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R 160450Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0006
INFO ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUEHAP/AMEMBASSY APIA 0001
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0002
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0002
RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 0002
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000159 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NZ
SUBJECT: LABOUR WINS RACE FOR HELEN CLARK'S OLD SEAT 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary.  On June 13, the Labour Party's David Shearer 
easily won the by-election contest for the Mt. Albert seat in 
Auckland, recently vacated by former Prime Minister Helen Clark. 
Shearer, a former high ranking UN official, effortlessly defeated his 
nearest rival, the governing National Party's candidate Melissa Lee 
who was widely considered to have run a poor campaign.  The victory 
served as a timely boost for the opposition Labour Party and its 
leader Phil Goff.  PM John Key came under criticism for his perceived 
lack of support for his candidate as she struggled throughout her 
campaign.  The race and the candidates were subjected to uncommon 
levels of media scrutiny for a by-election even though the result 
will not affect the political and power dynamics of the country.  End 
Summary. 
 
Labour Easily Retains Helen Clark's Old Seat 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  The June 13 Mt Albert by-election contest to fill the 
vacancy left by former Prime Minister Helen Clark's departure from 
parliament to head the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 
was easily won by Labour's David Shearer.  His victory meant that 
Labour's 63-year unbroken winning streak in the electorate remained 
intact.  Since 1981 Clark held the seat with little serious 
challenge.  The fact that it was Clark's old seat generated 
unprecedented levels of media interest and scrutiny in a race that 
would not impact on the balance of power in Parliament. 
 
Former UN Official Lays Waste to Field 
-------------------------------------- 
¶3. (SBU)  The Labour Party candidate David Shearer, until recently 
the leading UNDP official in Iraq, decimated the field in winning the 
Mt. Albert by-election.  His majority was a massive 9187 votes. 
Shearer captured 63.1 percent of the final vote with his nearest 
competitor, the governing National Party's gaffe-prone candidate 
Melissa Lee, only getting 17.1 percent just ahead of the Green Party 
co-leader Dr. Russel Norman on 12 percent.  [Note.  Lee is already a 
MP courtesy of her position on National's party list and despite her 
loss in Mt. Albert will remain in Parliament.  End Note]. Before 
heading to UNDP, Shearer had earlier served as a staffer to Phil Goff 
and run twice unsuccessfully for election to Parliament. 
¶4. (SBU)  Shearer's majority fell just short of Helen's Clark's at 
the November 2008 General Election, although the party vote in the 
electorate in November was much closer between Labour and National. 
This translates into Clark being more popular in her electorate than 
her party.  Shearer, as it turned out, appeared just as popular as 
his predecessor.  [Note.  As opposed to NZ general elections, 
by-elections only require one vote - for the candidate - and not an 
additional vote for the party of choice.  End Note]. 
 
Reasons for Labour's Big Win 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU)  The fact that Mt. Albert is one of Labour's safest seats, 
with well organized and sophisticated party machinery already in 
place, allowed Shearer a considerable head-start on his opponents. 
Shearer himself proved to be a disciplined and capable campaigner. 
The same could not be said, however, of his closest rival, Lee. 
Despite being previously touted as a rising star in New Zealand 
politics, Lee's performance in the campaign was regarded by observers 
as the worst seen in recent years.  It was quickly clear that she 
lacked the essentially political skills and acumen needed to win a 
political contest.  However, she was not helped by a perceived lack 
of support from her party, particularly with regard to a couple of 
Government announcements made midway through the campaign which set 
back her party's popularity with Mt. Albert voters.  Ultimately the 
formula for success for Shearer was simple: remain gaffe-free, have a 
high visibility in the electorate and stay on the popular side of 
local issues important with Mt. Albert voters.  Shearer fulfilled 
these requirements adeptly, whereas Lee roundly didn't. 
Additionally, Shearer benefited from Norman's inability to siphon 
left-of-center votes away from Labour. 
 
Victory is Much Needed Boost for Labour 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Shearer's victory was much needed tonic for the flat and 
struggling Labour Party.  Beset by bad polling since being removed 
from power and finding it difficult to re-connect with voters, Labour 
had much to lose and everything to gain.  Defeat would have been 
nothing short of a disastrous for Labour.  It would've served as a 
crushing blow to party morale in the wake of its 2008 election 
defeat.  Defeat also would've signaled that its efforts to re-engage 
 
WELLINGTON 00000159  002 OF 002 
 
 
with the electorate since the 2008 loss have failed.  Losing Mt. 
Albert would've given rise to unavoidable questions about Phil Goff's 
leadership from voters, and most likely from within his party.  Even 
prevailing with a significantly-reduced majority would have been of 
cold-comfort to Labour.  Luckily for Goff and his party, none of 
these came to pass and Labour emerged buoyed by its first genuine 
political success since the 2008 election loss eight months ago. 
 
Outcome Also Important for National 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Taking Helen Clark's old seat off Labour was always going 
to be a tall order for National, a challenge recognized by political 
analysts and PM Key alike.  Nonetheless, the result in June 13 was 
somewhat humiliating for National.  In the lead-up to official 
campaigning, National has sensed that it could be competitive due the 
relatively close party vote in Mt. Albert at the 2008 general 
election and National's subsequent popularity with voters 
nation-wide.  It also had high hopes for its candidate. 
 
¶8. (SBU)  National was also mindful that Labour would portray a loss 
as the end of National's long honeymoon with the voters. 
Additionally, National would be concerned that its opponent was 
interpreting a National loss as a rejection of the Government's two 
controversial plans for Auckland: the extension of overland highway 
development in and around Auckland (and through Mt. Albert) and an 
overhaul of the city's regional governing structure. 
 
Key's Actions during Campaign Criticized 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU)  PM Key came under fire from political analysts for his 
role, or lack thereof, in Melissa Lee's failed campaign.  The timing 
of a mid-campaign Government announcement of a controversial highway 
extension via Mt. Albert caused near terminal damage to Lee's 
campaign hopes.  The fact that she has not briefed on the 
announcement beforehand astonished the watching media.  The media 
also criticized Key's near absence from the campaign trail and total 
absence on election night.  There was, analysts determined, a 
palpable sense that Key had deserted his candidate.  Goff, on the 
other hand, was lock-step with Shearer throughout the race. 
 
¶10. (SBU)  Key personally hand-picked Lee for her high place on the 
party list before the 2008 election.  This virtually assured her of a 
place in Parliament.  In doing so, Lee bypassed the normal due 
diligence in the candidate selection process.  Critics argued that 
Lee's campaign showed that Key's erred in his judgment of her 
abilities and if she were properly held to scrutiny beforehand, 
National would've avoided much of the ensuing embarrassment that she 
earned for her party. 
 
Comment - Dramatic But Unimportant 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU)  The Mt. Albert result should not dramatically alter the 
national political landscape nor will it alter, in any way, the 
political balance of power within Parliament.  It may contribute, 
among other problems facing the Government, to a backsliding of the 
National-led Government's and John Key's popularity to the benefit of 
Labour and Phil Goff, but not likely in a meaningful way.  National 
will be relieved the Mt. Albert campaign is over and will try to 
quickly seize back control of the political agenda it has lost in 
recent weeks.  The winners to emerge out of the Mt. Albert result are 
Goff, who is handed a respite from questions about his leadership, 
and Shearer, who some pundits already tout as a future Labour leader, 
though prematurely.  The losers are certainly Lee, whose political 
prospects are now far from assured, and the Greens' Norman who failed 
in his only objective to raise his profile and challenge for the 
left-of-center vote.  End Comment. 
KEEGAN