VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHWR #0643/01 1741539
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 231539Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8485

UNCLAS WARSAW 000643 
 
CODEL 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
H FOR CODEL NELSON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: MARR OREP PGOV PREL PL
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL BEN NELSON TO WARSAW, JUNE 
28-30, 2009 
 
¶1. (SBU) Mission Poland warmly welcomes your upcoming visit 
to Warsaw. Your focus, Missile Defense, is front and center 
in our on-going conversation with the Poles, along with the 
rotation of a Patriot battery to Poland and on-going Status 
of Forces Agreement (SOFA) Supplemental negotiations. 
President Obama publicly and privately reiterated his 
commitment to Missile Defense (MD), assuming it is proven to 
work and cost-effective, and he repeated assurances that the 
Administration would stay in close consultation with Poland 
and the Czech Republic as it moves toward an MD decision. 
The Poles closely follow all discussions related to MD, the 
most recent of those being the Senate Armed Services 
Committee hearing on the Ballistic Missile Defense FY10 
Authorization Request on June 16. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The August 2008 agreement with Poland to station ten 
interceptors as part of a European Missile Defense System 
followed months of protracted and at times difficult 
negotiations. It was hard for Poland's government to agree to 
MD, and now some quietly question whether it was smart to 
expend so much political capital to conclude an agreement 
with an outgoing U.S. administration. At times last summer it 
seemed the Poles were negotiating as much  among themselves 
as they were with us. In the end, the Poles signed on -- 
largely to accommodate a direct request from us, their 
longtime ally. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The prolonged negotiations in and of themselves are 
in interesting story. When President Kaczynski clamored for 
the newly-elected Tusk Government to complete an MD deal 
initiated by his brother (former Prime Minister Jaroslaw 
Kaczynski) Prime Minister Tusk held back.  Public opinion was 
running heavily against MD, and that gave Tusk pause. As late 
as last July, the Prime Minister declared that a good deal 
needed on balance to enhance Poland's security, and that 
condition was not yet fulfilled. The element that tipped the 
balance for the final deal was our offer of a U.S. Patriot 
battery rotation in Poland, starting in 2009. The Patriots 
are seen by Poles as an American tripwire, and as such 
enhance Polish security.  That clinched the agreement, and 
Russia's near-simultaneous invasion of Georgia pushed Polish 
public support in favor of MD. 
 
¶4. (SBU) So what to do now that a project made in America 
faces questions in America?  The Tusk government has chosen 
to exercise "strategic patience," noting that the decision to 
move forward on MD must be an American one.  Polish media 
ricochets from one day to the next about the fate of MD, but 
the GoP position has not wavered. You will hear this during 
your visit. You will also hear that regardless of the fate of 
MD, there is an expectation that we will move forward with 
the Patriot rotation, and we have been reassuring on this 
point to date.  The form that Patriot rotation will take has 
received much attention as of late with headlines such as 
"Naked Patriots," and "Don't Touch the Patriots" highlighting 
that the initial rotation of a Patriot battery from Germany 
will likely not meet the Polish expectation of a 
combat-ready, fully operational system capable of being 
integrated into the Polish air defense system.  The USG 
interagency continues to work these issues.  The Poles will 
certainly deliver a message regarding their interpretation of 
the August 2008 Declaration on Strategic Cooperation with 
regard to the Patriot deployment to Poland. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski recently sent a 
letter to Secretary Clinton, expressing concern about plans 
for the Patriots.  In it, he requested confirmation that the 
Declaration on Strategic Cooperation would be honored, and 
made specific reference to the Polish expectation that the 
Patriot rotation would become interoperable with the Polish 
Air Defense System.  The Minister is also quoted in the press 
as saying, quote We want to see to what degree the Americans 
value their Polish ally, end quote. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Missile Defense Agreement, and the Patriot 
commitment, had kept momentum going in our Supplemental 
Status of Forces Agreement (SoFA) talks, begun last fall. 
Recent negotiations, however, have resulted in disagreements 
over such issues as jurisdiction, taxation of contractors, 
and the scope of the Army Postal Operations.  The overriding 
Polish concern appears that Polish companies would be 
competitively disadvantaged.  The SOFA Supplemental is both a 
precondition for building the interceptor site as well as for 
the Patriot rotation. SoFA ratification should not be overly 
contentious, since both the government and the largest 
opposition party are solidly in favor of MD and a greater 
U.S. military presence on Polish soil.  During the April 2009 
visit of Senator Levin, the constant refrain from the Poles 
was a desire for US "boots on the ground," although they see 
 
the Patriots in this same light. 
 
¶7. (SBU) For historical reasons, Russia casts a long shadow 
here, and Warsaw is watching the reviving U.S.-Russian 
dialogue closely. MD may irritate Polish-Russian relations, 
but the Poles calculate that a deeper security relationship 
with the U.S. is still needed to help offset growing Russian 
assertiveness.  The current Polish government has taken a 
less-confrontational, more constructive tack in relations 
with Russia than its predecessor. This doesn't mean Russia 
gets a pass, however -- Warsaw will be the first to insist 
that the EU and NATO press Moscow to play by the rules.  They 
also are promoting the EU's EUR 600 million Eastern 
Partnership initiative, co-sponsored by Poland and Sweden. 
The Partnership seeks to draw countries on Europe's eastern 
border, especially Ukraine and Georgia, closer to Western 
institutions.  The Poles are not absolutely convinced that 
Russia would not violate her sovereign border as was done to 
Georgia.  And there are some who question NATO's resolve to 
respond to a resurgent Russia.  Reaffirming U.S. commitment 
to NATO's Article 5 obligations would serve to reinforce 
messages they heard from visiting U.S. delegations. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Beyond MD, you should know that the Polish 
government is pressing for a Tusk visit to the White House, 
and is also seeking regular high-level consultations.  Once 
courted intensively on MD and Iraq, Warsaw worries that it is 
now an afterthought in Washington circles. In this regard, 
your visit is a welcome expression of U.S. interest and is 
being warmly welcomed.  You will want to take the opportunity 
to again express our thanks for the Poles' significant 
contributions in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as keep in 
mind the heavy rancor Poles  feel for their continued 
exclusion from the Visa Waiver Program. 
ASHE