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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 12 TOKYO 001375 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 06/18/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) In second party head talks, Aso briefs on specific measures, 
while Hatoyama advocates principles (Mainichi) 
 
(2) JCG receives another navigation warning from North Korea; 
Missiles? (Yomiuri) 
 
(3) Upper House committee rejects anti-piracy bill (Mainichi) 
 
(4) Q&As with ConGen-designate Raymond Greene in interview with 
Ryukyu Shimpo on June 17 (Ryukyu Shimpo) 
 
(5) U.S. consul general-designate to Okinawa: No plans to review 
Futenma relocation (Okinawa Times) 
 
(6) Risks behind "fraternal diplomacy": DPJ still clinging to the 
illusion of "contingency stationing of U.S. forces" (Sankei) 
 
(7) Government declares in monthly economic report for June that 
economy has "hit the bottom": Upward revision for two months in row; 
Word "deterioration" omitted for first time in seven months (Nikkei) 
 
 
(8) Succession issue: Why the Japanese media pursue the Kim Jong Il 
family; Gained momentum after admission of abductions (Chosen 
Shimpo) 
 
(Corrected copy): China to start construction of pipelines via Burma 
in September, may affect Japan's reliance on Middle East oil 
(Sankei) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) In second party head talks, Aso briefs on specific measures, 
while Hatoyama advocates principles 
 
MAINICHI (Page 1) (Excerpts) 
June 18, 2009 
 
Prime Minister Taro Aso and Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) 
President Yukio Hatoyama faced off in the Diet in their second 
debate yesterday. Hatoyama referred to principles in his remarks, 
such as an ideal national vision. Meanwhile, Aso insisted on the 
need for discussing specific issues in a realistic manner, saying: 
"Unless specific measures are discussed, people will feel uneasy." 
 
Citing the current state in which 100 persons commit suicide across 
the nation everyday on average and the state of poverty of 
fatherless families, Hatoyama said: "Let's help these people. Let's 
build a nation in which they can secure their places." 
 
Aso briefed on specific measures the government has taken in the 
fiscal 2009 supplementary budget and other economic packages. He 
said: "The government will provide 20,000 yen to a fatherless family 
with a high school student and pay up to 140,000 yen disbursed from 
the supplementary budget to vocational person over a period of three 
years." 
 
In discussing financial resources, Hatoyama emphasized: "Money 
should be used to finance measures needed to value human lives." He 
then called for eliminating wasteful spending by reviewing 
 
TOKYO 00001375  002 OF 012 
 
 
negotiated contracts for projects. Aso detailed the nation's 
budgetary allocations and then emphasized: "This issue must be 
closely examined." 
 
When he assumed the party presidency, Hatoyama advocated 
establishing a fraternal society. Members of a policy group in the 
DPJ called on Hatoyama on May 14 and proposed a concept to make 
Northeast Asia a nuclear-weapons free zone. Hatoyama's policy 
pledges, revealed on the day of the presidential election on May 16, 
included the concept as a specific measure to promote a fraternal 
diplomacy. A mid-ranking party member voiced concern: "Although he 
includes everything in his policy of fraternity, he does not present 
any specific measures, just coming up with principles." 
 
Meanwhile, Aso emphasized the actual results it has made so far, 
such as the enactment of four budgets in about nine months since he 
came into office. Hatoyama said (in the party head talks on May 27): 
"I will pursue the goal of building a fraternal society." The LDP is 
trying to play up its ability to take the helm of the state by 
spotlighting its achievements, while the DPJ is calling for 
reforming the shape of the nation through a change of government. 
These different political styles are reflected in the leaders' 
stances. 
 
Jun Iida, professor at National Graduate Institute for Policy 
Studies, suggested that the prime minister should clarify as to 
which direction he wants to lead Japan, not only listing specific 
policy measures. Regarding Hatoyama's policy stance, he made this 
comment: "Unless he presents both principles and specific measures 
as a set, he will be unable to show the specific picture of a 
fraternal society." 
 
Government spending and fraternal spirit 
 
In their second debate June 17, Prime Minister Hatoyama and DPJ 
President Yukio Hatoyama demonstrated the distinguished difference 
in their political styles. In the run-up to the House of 
Representatives election, pundits make a comparison between the two 
leaders, focusing on (1) assertions as a politician; (2) leadership; 
and (3) communication ability. 
 
Policy measures 
 
The government compiled a supplementary budget for fiscal 2009 worth 
14 trillion yen, marking the largest ever scale. About 380 billion 
yen was allocated to the Forestry agency in the budget, and an 
additional 250 billion yen was also set aside for the agency in the 
supplementary budget. Lower House member Koya Nishikawa, chairman of 
the LDP's Agriculture Basic Policy Committee, spoke about Aso's 
policy of disbursing huge amounts of government funds, showing 
surprise: "First, groups in the forestry industry told me not to 
tell a lie." 
 
Aso has made inconsistent remarks, but his economic policy is so 
consistent that even a bureaucrat who once served as secretary to a 
cabinet minister said, "He is an out-and-out advocate of large 
infusions of government spending. 
 
In January 2001, Aso assumed the portfolio responsible for economic 
and fiscal policy. Although he was expected to take measures to 
rebuild the nation's finances, Aso made statements positive about 
boosting government spending. When he was serving as Policy Research 
 
TOKYO 00001375  003 OF 012 
 
 
Council chairman under the Koizumi administration in April 2002, Aso 
said in a monthly magazine: "I think additional fiscal disbursements 
are necessary." In a newsletter issued in January 2003 by his 
support group, Aso noted: "My economic policy is totally different 
from that of Prime Minister (Junichiro) Koizumi." 
 
His theoretical supporter is said to be Richard Koo, the chief 
economist of Nomura Research Institute. According to informed 
sources, they deepened a friendship in the latter half of the 1990s. 
Aso seems to have been impressed by Koo's argument for expanding 
domestic demand by increasing government spending. 
 
Cited as a feature in his policy stance, Hatoyama openly insisted on 
the need for constitutional revision, on which discussion had long 
been viewed as a taboo in the political world. He now takes the view 
that "we are not in the state of starting the process of revising 
the Constitution now" (as he said at the Japan Press Club on May 
15). In the party presidential race in September 1999, in which he 
ran for the first time, he put forth constitutional revision as one 
of his campaign pledges. In December 2004, he revealed his draft 
proposal for constitutional revision, including measures to shift 
the centralized administrative system to a decentralization system, 
specify a self-defense military, and to approve having a female 
emperor. He might have been influenced by his grandfather, Ichiro 
Hatoyama, who was an advocate of constitutional revision. 
 
In his draft proposal, Hatoyama said: "In laying down a plan to 
build a state under the principle of fraternity, constitutional 
revision becomes necessary;" and "In order to drastically reform the 
nation, it is necessary to clearly write a new mechanism (regional 
sovereignty) in the Constitution." Here, too, the buzzword is 
"fraternity." 
 
Leadership 
 
In an interview in a weekly magazine issued in April 2003, Aso 
sharply criticized Koizumi's appointments of cabinet ministers on 
his own authority, saying, "Mr. Koizumi has no consideration." 
 
After Shoichi Nakagawa resigned from the post of finance minister 
over G-7 debacle caused by alcohol, Aso reportedly said, with tears 
in his eyes: "There is no other person like him who is skillful at 
the job." He installed his close friends in ministerial posts. He 
also awarded key posts to Shigeru Ishiba and Kaoru Yosano, both of 
whom were his rivals in the presidential race, highly evaluating 
their abilities. He has played up "humanity" and "a sense of 
balance," in contrast to Koizumi. 
 
However, when it comes to a state leader, there is only a very 
slight difference between "humanity" or "consideration" and 
"irresolution." Over the dispute over the reappointment of Japan 
Post Holdings Co. President Nishikawa, his delayed response resulted 
in driving Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Kunio 
Hatoyama into resignation and in significantly pushing down public 
support of his cabinet. 
 
In a DPJ executive meeting on June 2, Hatoyama categorically said: 
"I will not set up a project team to map out a plan for a new 
administration and will decide on a plan by myself." One senior 
member commented: "I was amazed to see how remarkably he has 
changed." 
 
 
TOKYO 00001375  004 OF 012 
 
 
Hatoyama said (in an interview with the Mainichi Shimbun in August 
2000): "I am told, 'Mr. Hatoyama is somehow feeble." 
 
DPJ Supreme Advisor Hirohisa Fujii said: "He has matured (as a 
leader)," but he added: "He has yet to grow into a man of integrity 
with backbone." 
 
Communication ability 
 
Aso grumbles to his aides recently: "I wonder why speeches are not 
given on the streets." Aso has visited the offices of LDP-backed 
potential candidates for the upcoming Tokyo assembly election, which 
is viewed as a prelude to the next general election, but he has not 
delivered street-corner speeches. He said to a Mainichi Shimbun 
reporter, "If politicians have no courage to say their real 
feelings, their speeches will not be attractive." He stressed the 
importance of a speech. 
 
When Hatoyama held a dialogue with then prime minister Junichiro 
Koizumi as DPJ head in April 2002, his aides pointed out a lack of 
communication capability. 
 
Meanwhile, his stance of carefully listening to his companions in a 
gentle atmosphere has been favorably taken. In 1993, when he was 
deputy chief cabinet secretary in the Hosokawa administration, a 
number of complaints came from Hokkaido of the planned 
market-opening policy. When a group of famers from Hokkaido visited 
his office, his secretary explained the need for market opening to 
the farmers wearing a stern look. But after Hatoyama listened to 
what they claimed and said, "I understand," there were smiling and 
left the office. 
 
(2) JCG receives another navigation warning from North Korea; 
Missiles? 
 
YOMIURI ONLINE 
11:52, June 18, 2009 
 
The Japan Coast Guard (JCG) announced on June 18 that its patrol 
boats received a navigation warning from North Korea on the evening 
of June 17. 
 
The warning is about a navigation ban in two sea areas some 135 
kilometers from Wonsan on the east coast of North Korea from June 
10-30. While the off-limits area is smaller than the one in the 
navigation ban monitored on June 7, the JCG has issued a new warning 
and called for caution. 
 
The Kitaeryong base, where preparations are underway to fire Nodong 
mid-range missiles, is located south of Wonsan. 
 
(3) Upper House committee rejects anti-piracy bill 
 
MAINICHI ONLINE 
June 18, 2009 
 
The anti-piracy bill, which will be the new legal basis for the 
anti-piracy operations of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) in waters 
off Somalia, was rejected by a majority of the opposition consisting 
of the Democratic Party of Japan, Japanese Communist Party, and 
Social Democratic Party at the House of Councillors Committee on 
Foreign Affairs and Defense on June 18. The bill is expected to be 
 
TOKYO 00001375  005 OF 012 
 
 
rejected by the Upper House plenary session on June 19, but passed 
by a two-thirds majority of the ruling parties in a second vote at 
the House of Representatives plenary session on the same day. 
 
Two SDF escort ships are already engaged in operations in Somalia 
under Article 82 of the SDF Law governing maritime security 
operations. The proposed bill will expand the scope of escort 
operations to foreign ships, relax rules on the use of firearms, and 
authorize firing at ships to make them stop. 
 
(4) Q&As with ConGen-designate Raymond Greene in interview with 
Ryukyu Shimpo on June 17 
 
RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 2) (Full) 
June 18, 2009 
 
-- What do you think of the current status of the U.S. military 
bases in Okinawa? 
 
Greene: They are very important facilities for the Japan-U.S. 
security alliance. The signing of the Guam Agreement shows that the 
Obama administration, like the Bush administration, reconfirms the 
importance of U.S. Forces Japan realignment. I am confident that 
Futenma relocation will be completed during the Obama 
administration. 
 
-- The marine commandant has talked about reviewing Futenma 
relocation and the Guam relocation plans under the QDR (Quadrennial 
Defense Review). Will the U.S. side review the realignment plans? 
 
Greene: No such plans at all. There is no need for any review. Not 
only will the Marines be moved to Guam, there are also plans to 
expand the presence there of the Navy, the Army and the Air Force. 
Issues such as training sites may be written into the QDR, though. 
This will not affect Japan's share of the cost and the Marines' 
relocation. 
 
-- How do you intend to deal with the Okinawan people's anti-base 
sentiment? 
 
Greene: I am aware that there are different views in Okinawa. My 
role is to listen to them and explain our policy. There are also 
ways in which the presence of bases can make a contribution, such as 
the economic spinoffs and cooperation during disasters. I hope that 
apart from the political aspect, they will be able to make economic, 
educational, and cultural contributions. 
 
(5) U.S. consul general-designate to Okinawa: No plans to review 
Futenma relocation 
 
OKINAWA TIMES (Page 2) (Full) 
June 18, 2009 
 
Tokyo 
 
Raymond Greene, security policy unit chief at the U.S. Embassy in 
Tokyo, who is the consul general-designate to Okinawa, gave an 
interview to the Okinawa Times in Tokyo on June 16. Asked about the 
location of the facility replacing the U.S. military's Futenma Air 
Station, Greene noted, "We decided on the current location through a 
long process." He gave a negative view on studying the pros and cons 
of moving the facility further into the sea, saying, "We have no 
 
TOKYO 00001375  006 OF 012 
 
 
plans for a review." He indicated the intention to implement the 
current government plan. 
 
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has indicated that it wants to 
discuss with the U.S. relocating the Futenma base out of Okinawa, 
once the DPJ takes over the reins of government. Greene pointed out 
that: "We have no plans to review the U.S. Forces Japan realignment 
package. There is no plan at all to discuss (relocation outside 
Okinawa or Japan)." 
 
Regarding a senior U.S. military officer's statement that the cost 
of relocating the U.S. Marines in Okinawa to Guam may be higher than 
originally estimated, Greene would only say that, "We would like to 
implement (the road map)." He also said that in case the cost rises, 
"the Japanese side's share will not exceed the upper limit (agreed 
by the two countries); the U.S. side will pay (for the additional 
cost)." 
 
Regarding the question of reviewing the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces 
Agreement (SOFA), Greene stated: "Improving the operation (of the 
SOFA) is effective. That is the consensus reached between the two 
countries. At least, the U.S. side does not see any need." 
 
(6) Risks behind "fraternal diplomacy": DPJ still clinging to the 
illusion of "contingency stationing of U.S. forces" 
 
SANKEI (Page 3) (Abridged slightly) 
June 18, 2009 
 
A certain person likened Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President 
Yukio Hatoyama's mantra of "fraternal diplomacy" to a piece of stale 
cake. That is because "fraternity" was the buzzword of the late 
Prime Minister Ichiro Hatoyama, the grandfather of Yukio Hatoyama. 
 
Ichiro Hatoyama, known for Japan-Soviet talks and as an advocate of 
constitutional amendment, sounded out the United States through then 
Foreign Minister Mamoru Shigemitsu about a total withdrawal of U.S. 
forces from Japan in 12 years' time. His grandson, Yukio is a 
constitutional revisionist and his pet idea is a Japan-U.S. security 
alliance without the regular stationing of U.S. forces in Japan, 
which closely resembles his grandfather's view. 
 
The only difference appears that while Ichiro was inclined toward 
Japan's independent rearmament after a U.S. withdrawal, Yukio's 
diplomatic stance is likely to shift with the times. 
 
Yukio Hatoyama contributed a paper titled "The Democratic Party of 
Japan -- My Administrative Vision" to the Bungei Shunju November 
1996 issue, in which he unveiled the convenient idea of a Japan-U.S. 
security alliance without the regular stationing of U.S. forces in 
Japan. This immediately prompted then U.S. Deputy Assistant 
Secretary of Defense Kurt Campbell to fly to Japan to meet with 
Hatoyama and others at DPJ headquarters. Campbell criticized 
Hatoyama's idea outright, saying, "Responding to a dispute is a 
secondary factor; the (U.S. forces') presence itself has been a 
deterrent." 
 
According to Hatoyama's idea of a Japan-U.S. security alliance 
without the regular stationing of U.S. forces, U.S. combat troops 
would withdraw from Japan in steps and the deterrent against North 
Korea would eventually disappear, as was pointed out by Campbell. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001375  007 OF 012 
 
 
The high-performance radar to detect North Korean ballistic missiles 
would be removed from Aomori's Shariki area, and the eight 7th Fleet 
Aegis vessels to intercept incoming missiles would be relocated from 
Yokosuka to Hawaii. The Air Force's F-16s at Misawa base that are 
capable of attacking North Korea would return to the continental 
United States permanently. Everything would be gone, from the F-22 
stealth fighter jets at Okinawa's Kadena Base with an eye on the 
Chinese military to the Marine Corps at Futenma Air Station. 
 
When there is no deterrent force, an accidental war can easily break 
out. Furthermore, will U.S. forces, having lost their bases, rush to 
Japan only in times of a national contingency and then shed their 
blood? Hatoyama visited the United States in September 1997 to seek 
its understanding. The United States brushed aside Hatoyama's idea 
as nonsense. 
 
After consideration, the DPJ back then dropped "a security alliance 
without the regular stationing of U.S. forces" from its basic 
security plan. 
 
Despite that, Hatoyama continued to insist, "The words are gone but 
the idea is still alive." The idea of "fraternity diplomacy" also 
remains ambiguous, as he has yet to offer a clear explanation. 
Ichiro Ozawa, too, said when he was DPJ president, "The 7th Fleet is 
enough to secure the U.S. presence (in the Far East)." Such a 
comment would only please China and North Korea. 
 
Worse yet, Secretary General Katsuya Okada declared, "Asia comes 
before the Japan-U.S. alliance." This can explain why the United 
States has doubts about Japan. 
 
An alliance is a relationship where two countries complement and 
strengthen each other's position. In this context, Okada's 
Asia-comes-first theory is preposterous. He prioritizes Asia's 
multilateral system over the alliance. According to former Secretary 
of State Henry Kissinger, putting too much emphasis on a 
multilateral system could lead to the negligence of bilateral 
alliances. 
 
Because Asian neighbors, with whom Hatoyama and Okada sympathize, 
are generally evil-minded, they are certain to find "fraternal 
diplomacy" easy to control. The recent shift in relations between 
China and Taiwan sounded an alarm to such "fraternal politics." 
 
The 2009 U.S. Department of Defense Report on China's military power 
points out China's continued military buildup despite reduced 
cross-Strait tensions since the advent of the administration of 
President Ma Ying-jeou in Taiwan. China has continued to increase 
its short-range missiles at a pace of 100 a year in the Taiwan 
Strait area. The country has 1,000 missiles aimed at Taiwan. 
President Ma is eager to promote "fraternity", but things are 
different on the military front, which must be prepared for national 
contingencies. 
 
Seiji Maehara visited China when he was DPJ President. During his 
stay in China, the Chinese leadership, while indicating that the 
Yasukuni issue was the largest impediment to improving ties with 
Japan, gave the cold shoulder to Maehara, who clearly expressed his 
opposition to visits to the Shinto shrine by the Japanese prime 
minister. The reason was because Maehara been playing up the fact 
that China was a threat. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001375  008 OF 012 
 
 
Even a "peaceful rise" pledged by President Hu Jintao has been put 
on the backburner in recent years. Associated Press quoted on June 7 
China fleet commander Adm. Hu Hongmeng as saying: "China needs an 
aircraft carrier, and the country will very soon have its own 
aircraft carrier." China does not conceal its ambition to become a 
military superpower. 
 
It is essential to revamp the Japan-U.S. alliance. Two days after 
Japan issued an order to destroy an incoming North Korean missile, 
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said: "We have no plan to 
intercept a missile unless it targets the United States." This was 
followed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's statement, "Japan 
has every right to protect and defend its territory." 
 
These remarks indicated that even if Japan was exposed to a military 
threat, the United States might not make moves. Unable to shoot down 
a U.S.-bound missile because of its self-imposed ban on the use of 
the right to collective self-defense, Japan cannot complain about 
such a stance of the United States. 
 
The Aso administration deserves much blame for leaving the 
Japan-U.S. alliance in tatters. At the same time, the DPJ 
leadership, including Hatoyama and Okada, has yet to break away from 
the illusion that the United Sates will station its troops in Japan 
only during the country's contingency. We hope the DPJ will change 
its view by modeling on former (socialist) Prime Minister Tomiichi 
Murayama who retracted his opposition to the Japan-U.S. security 
alliance. 
 
(7) Government declares in monthly economic report for June that 
economy has "hit the bottom": Upward revision for two months in row; 
Word "deterioration" omitted for first time in seven months 
 
NIKKEI (Page 1) (Excerpts) 
June 18, 2009 
 
The Cabinet Office in its monthly economic report for June, which 
was released on June 17, revised upward the monthly assessment of 
the economy for two months in a row. It removed the word 
"worsening," as upward trends were observed in some sectors. Japan 
is thus the first country among industrialized countries to declare 
that its economy had "hit the bottom," following a pickup in 
industrial production and exports. However, regarding the future 
course of the economy, the Cabinet Office has  maintained a stance 
of monitoring such downward economic risks as a decline in the 
employment situation and  a slowdown in the global economy. 
 
Cautious about future course of economy 
 
Kaoru Yosano, who is in charge of economic and fiscal policy as well 
as financial services, at a press conference held the same day 
underscored that it can be strongly estimated that the economy has 
bottomed out. Concerning the future course of the economy, he 
indicated a cautious stance, saying, "Naturally, downward risks 
exist. It is always necessary to manage the economy and national 
finances very carefully." 
 
The main reason for the government's determination that the economy 
has "hit the bottom" is a pickup in industrial output. The 
industrial production index shows that corporate production 
activities rose 5.9 PERCENT  in April in comparison with the 
previous month's level, marking the highest growth in 56 years. 
 
TOKYO 00001375  009 OF 012 
 
 
Yosano pointed out, "Exports and industrial production had 
apparently hit the bottom in the January-March quarter." 
 
Regarding personal consumption, a pillar of domestic demand, sales 
of new automobiles since April have taken an upward turn from the 
previous month's level as the result of an eco-car tax break. The 
government made an upward revision in the monthly report for the 
first time in two years, noting that signs of personal consumption 
ceasing to fall can be observed in some areas. It also raised its 
assessment of imports and the number of bankruptcies. 
 
The financial crisis has deepened since the failure of Lehman 
Brothers in the fall of 2008, further deteriorating the economy. 
Japan was also hard hit, as can be seen by the real growth rate 
hitting its lowest-ever negative figure in the post-war period. 
However, it appears that the Japanese economy has climbed out of the 
worst phase in about six months. 
 
However, if future risks are taken into consideration, the wording 
that the economy has "hit the bottom" is a bit disagreeable. 
According to the Cabinet Office, the economy "hitting the bottom" 
(sokouchi) indicates a situation in which the deteriorating economy 
has taken an upward turn. It defines the words as slightly stronger 
than "bottoming out" (sokoire), which indicates a situation where 
the economy has stopped deteriorating. 
 
Stressing achievements? 
 
 The major reason that the government boldly used the wording "hit 
the bottom" (sokouchi) is that a strong economic index showing the 
highest growth in industrial production in 56 years was seen. 
However, the government used the wording motivated by a desire to 
stress the results of the largest-ever stimulus packages that it put 
together. 
 
Both industrial production and exports stand at only about 70 
PERCENT  of the level seen last fall. Amid the situation of sluggish 
corporate earnings, there is still a sense of excessiveness about 
labor and production facilities. As such, the government revised 
downward its assessment of capital investment, one of the pillars of 
private-sector demand, adopting the wording that such investment has 
"significantly declined." 
 
Given the current situation, the government maintained the 
assessment that "the harsh situation will continue while the 
employment situation is deteriorating."  The employment situation 
continues to deteriorate with the overall unemployment rate in April 
reaching the 5 PERCENT  level. The Cabinet Office views that there 
still is a high risk of the economy hitting a second bottom, meaning 
the economy will further deteriorate. The economic turnaround has 
yet to occur." 
 
(8) Succession issue: Why the Japanese media pursue the Kim Jong Il 
family; Gained momentum after admission of abductions 
 
CHOSEN SHIMPO ONLINE 
June 18, 2009 
 
Sin Chong Nok, Tokyo correspondent; Kim Hong  Su, Bern 
correspondent 
 
Heightened sense of crisis due to nuclear test, etc. also one 
 
TOKYO 00001375  010 OF 012 
 
 
reason 
 
On June 16, in the quiet residential district of Liebefeld in Bern, 
the capital of Switzerland, Japanese reporters could be spotted all 
over the place because it was found that the third son of North 
Korea's General Secretary Kim Jong Il, Jong Un, 26, had studied at a 
school in this district from 1998 to 2000. 
 
Japanese reporters gathered in front of the public middle school 
that Jong Un went to and in front of the house of his supposed close 
friend at that time Joao Micaelo (Portuguese) and waited for the 
school's teachers or Micaelo's family members to come out. When this 
reporter dropped by, reporters from a Japanese TV station were 
delighted. They asked me: "Do you have any new information?" "We are 
anxious because we have not done our homework (obtain a photograph 
of Jong Un)." Micaelo's mother complained to me: "Japanese reporters 
kept ringing the door bell. I am about to have a nervous breakdown. 
I can hardly go out." 
 
Members of the Japanese media have also been chasing after Jong Nam, 
38, the eldest son of General Secretary Kim, in Macau and Beijing. 
Recently, two TV stations succeeded in interviewing him. Last 
October, Japanese TV filmed Jong Nam going into a hospital in Paris 
to meet doctors in charge of General Secretary Kim's treatment. 
 
The only known three photos of Jong Un have all been obtained by the 
Japanese media. His photo taken when he was 11 was taken out of 
North Korea by Kenji Fujimoto, who used to be General Secretary 
Kim's personal chef. On June 14, Mainichi Shimbun published a photo 
of him when he was 16 and studying at a public middle school in 
Bern. In addition, Yomiuri Shimbun published on June 17 another 
photo taken during his school days in Bern. 
 
The Japanese media began chasing after the "Kim Jong Il family" 
persistently from 2002. North Korea admitted the abduction of 
Japanese nationals during then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's 
visit there. Since then, anti-North Korean sentiments surged in 
Japan, and there has been strong interest in the "Kim Jong Il 
family." 
 
A Japanese reporter insists: "The rise in the Japanese people's 
sense of crisis due to North Korea's missile launches and nuclear 
tests is also one reason. How well one catches the movements of the 
Kim Jong Il family has even become the criterion for judging how 
good a reporter is." 
 
However, there have been quite a bit of reports based on mistaken 
information or speculation. A typical example is TV Asahi's report 
on "Jong Un's latest photograph" which was actually the photo of a 
guy who runs an Internet community in the ROK. There have also been 
many reports that are probably not true, such as stories about Jong 
Un meeting PRC President Hu Jintao and plans to assassinate Jong 
Nam. Some claim that General Secretary Kim has already died, and the 
person appearing in the media right now is actually a "double." 
There are even brokers who sell information on North Korea. 
 
Huanqiu Shibao, a sister publication of the Communist Party of 
China's official organ Renmin Ribao (People's Daily), made the 
following comments on June 17 on the Asahi Shimbun report dated June 
16 that "Jong Un met President Hu," quoting Professor Chang of the 
Central Party School: "This is a smoke bomb to test if the Chinese 
government will admit or not." 
 
TOKYO 00001375  011 OF 012 
 
 
 
(Corrected copy): China to start construction of pipelines via Burma 
in September, may affect Japan's reliance on Middle East oil 
 
SANKEI (Top play) (Full) 
June 18, 2009 
 
Toshu Noguchi, Beijing 
 
It was learned on June 17 that full-fledged construction work on 
pipelines for oil and natural gas from Burma (Myanmar) to China will 
start in September. With this, China will be able to transport crude 
oil from the Middle East and Africa without passing through the 
unstable Strait of Malacca or South China Sea. It is believed that 
this will serve as one of the arteries to ensure stable supply of 
crude oil for China, the world's number two oil importer, and may 
possibly result in China's greater reliance on Middle Eastern oil. 
This is also likely to have an impact on Japan, which relies on the 
Middle East for most of its oil imports. 
 
China and Burma signed an agreement on the construction of the 
pipelines for oil and natural gas in March. According to the Diyi 
Caijing Ribao (China Business News), officials of Petrochina, a 
major Chinese oil and natural gas company, revealed on June 15 that 
the construction project costing approximately 2 billion dollars 
will go into full swing in September. 
 
The pipelines will start from the port city of Sittwe (Akyab) in 
western Burma, pass through Mandalay in the central part of the 
country, and go into Yunnan Province in China, thereby reaching 
Kunming via Dali. It will have a total length of some 1,100 
kilometers and is expected to transport about 20 million tons of oil 
each year, or 400,000 barrels daily. 
 
The pipeline for natural gas will be completed as soon as 2012. It 
will ultimately be extended to Nanning in Guangxi Province and will 
transport 12 billion cubic meters of natural gas each year. 
 
China became the number two oil consumer in the world in 2003 and 
surpassed Japan to become the number two oil importer in May 2008. 
It relies on imports for around 60 percent of domestic consumption. 
In 2007, the top five suppliers were Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iran, 
Russia, and Oman, with the Middle East taking up 45 percent and 
Africa 33 percent. 
 
At present, most crude oil from the Middle East and Africa passes 
the Strait of Malacca enroute to China. Not only is the strait 
crowded and plagued by pirates, there are other factors of 
uncertainty in this area such as Indonesia, which has a history of 
anti-Chinese campaigns. There is also the territorial dispute over 
the Nansha islands in the South China Sea. 
 
The Chinese government was looking for alternatives to relying on 
the Strait of Malacca route to secure its energy supply. This fit in 
nicely with Burma's desire to earn foreign currency, resulting in 
the pipeline project. 
 
Avoiding the Strait of Malacca when transporting oil also represents 
cost cutting for China, where oil consumption is constantly on the 
rise. 
 
If China increases its procurement of oil in the Middle East after 
 
TOKYO 00001375  012 OF 012 
 
 
the pipeline is completed, this may impact crude oil supply for 
Japan, which imported 86.9 percent of its oil from this region in 
¶2008. This may also contribute to a worldwide rise in oil prices. 
 
ZUMWALT